BboroAg said:

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Overall record prediction…

4 "should wins" (UTSA, Utah State, Samford, Mississippi State)
3 "should lose" (Notre Dame, LSU, tu)
5 "tossups" (Arkansas, Florida, Auburn, South Carolina, Missouri)

If "tossups" go 4-1…then we are ……8-4

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I generally agree, but would probably structure the tiers a bit differently, more like:

3 cupcakes (UTSA, Utah State, Samford) (~99% win chance per game)
1 severe favorite (Clanga) (~85% win chance)
2 moderate favorites (Auburn, South Carolina) (~75% win chance per game)
3 slight favorites (@Arkansas, Florida, @Missouri) (~60% win chance per game)
1 slight underdog (@Notre Dame) (~40% win chance)
2 moderate underdogs (@LSU, @tu) (~25% win chance)

That comes out to 3 * 0.99 + 1 * 0.85 + 2 * 0.75 + 3 * 0.60 + 1 * 0.40 + 2 * 0.25 = 8.02 wins., or pretty dang close to what you have got.

zooguy96 said:

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People never learn…. Things never go right… they always go wrong….. except for the 1 Johnny year and the 1 Mond year…

8-4 until we're not 8-4.

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Yup

I agree...you can look at it a lot of different ways, but all roads seem to lead to 8-4/9-3

Not sure about where you have Missouri. What do you consider a slight favorite. Also as of right now I'd swap LSU and ND.

vander54 said:

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Not sure about where you have Missouri. What do you consider a slight favorite. Also as of right now I'd swap LSU and ND.

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Third away game in a row is rough, and regardless of what you think Mizzou is they still have enough talent that we can't just out-talent them. I also agree that ND is a better team than LSU, but it will be a lot easier to play Notre Dame after two weeks of cupcakes when they are coming off of a trip to Miami (and no other cupcakes to ease them into the season) than it will be to play our second away game in a row, and our fifth SEC game in a row against a team that has Vanderbilt before us and a bye after.

Ugly said:

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vander54 said:

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Not sure about where you have Missouri. What do you consider a slight favorite. Also as of right now I'd swap LSU and ND.

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Third away game in a row is rough, and regardless of what you think Mizzou is they still have enough talent that we can't just out-talent them. I also agree that ND is a better team than LSU, but it will be a lot easier to play Notre Dame after two weeks of cupcakes when they are coming off of a trip to Miami (and no other cupcakes to ease them into the season) than it will be to play our second away game in a row, and our fifth SEC game in a row against a team that has Vanderbilt before us and a bye after.

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Missouri will take a rather large step back this year. Despite when and where we play them we should be a decent favorite to win the game.

the more coolest guy said:

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Sigh. There are some teams that can do more with less like Alabama and Texas. We always do less with more. We should put more money into other sports where we might do better.

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The last time Bama or Texas had less they both went 5-7.

I will go with 9-3.

Anything worse and I will be disappointed. Anything more, euphoric.

Should be a lock 100% (4-0)
- UTSA
- Utah State
- Miss State
- Samford

Should win (2-1)
- Arkansas
- Auburn

Swing games (hopefully 3-1)
- Notre Dame
- Florida
- Mizzou
- South Carolina

Probable losses (0-2)
- LSU
- Texas


My personal probabilities that in no way are based on analytics… just gut feeling

9-3 = 40%
8-4 = 30%
10-2 = 20%
7-5 = 8%
6-6 or worse = 2%

I agree overall but i think 7-5 is a little more likely than you listed.

I think 9-3 is most lilely with 8-4 a not too distant 2nd. Then I'm torn between 10-2 or 7-5 being more likely.

8-4 until we are not

3 cupcakes games 3-0
UTSA, Utah State, and Samford: likely 30+ point home favorites in each game

Probable SEC win 1-0
Mississippi State: likely a 17+ point home favorite

Likely wins (2-0)
Auburn: likely a two-score home favorite
@Arkansas: likely a two-score road favorite

Swing games (hopefully 3-1)
@Notre Dame: likely a one-score road underdog
Florida: likely a one-score home favorite
@Missouri: likely a one-score point road favorite
South Carolina: likely a one-score point home favorite

Probable losses (0-2)
@LSU: likely a two-score road underdog
@Texas: likely a two-score road underdog


10-2 or better: 20%
9-3: 30%
8-4: 30%
7-5: 15%
6-6 or worse: 5%

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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3 cupcakes games 3-0
UTSA, Utah State, and Samford: likely 30+ point home favorites

Probable SEC win 1-0
Mississippi State: likely a 17+ point home favorite

Liley wins (2-0)
Auburn: likely a two-score home favorite
@Arkansas: likely a two-score road favorite

Swing games (hopefully 3-1)
@Notre Dame: likely a one-score underdog
Florida: likely a one-score home favorite
@Missouri: likely a one-score point road favorite
South Carolina: likely a one-score point home favorite

Probable losses (0-2)
@LSU: likely a two-score road underdog
@Texas: likely a two-score road underdog


10-2 or better: 20%
9-3: 30%
8-4: 30%
7-5: 15%
6-6 or worse: 5%

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I think your percentages are very accurate

Ugly said:

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vander54 said:

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Not sure about where you have Missouri. What do you consider a slight favorite. Also as of right now I'd swap LSU and ND.

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Third away game in a row is rough, and regardless of what you think Mizzou is they still have enough talent that we can't just out-talent them. I also agree that ND is a better team than LSU, but it will be a lot easier to play Notre Dame after two weeks of cupcakes when they are coming off of a trip to Miami (and no other cupcakes to ease them into the season) than it will be to play our second away game in a row, and our fifth SEC game in a row against a team that has Vanderbilt before us and a bye after.

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Exactly. Both teams have bye weeks before playing each other, but we will be playing our 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Missouri plays back-to-back road games at Auburn and Vanderbilt before their bye week, but we will be playing our 3rd SEC road game in 4 weeks with back-to-back road games at Arkansas and LSU before our bye week. That means Missouri has home field and scheduling dynamics advantages over us.

Also, the current trends favor Missouri. Missouri has won 10 consecutive home games since a 49-39 home loss to LSU on 10/7/2023, including 8 (7 SEC) consecutive home games against SEC teams. In contrast, we have lost 12 of our last 14 road games, including 7 consecutive November road games, dating back to a 29-19 road loss at Ole Miss on 11/13/2021. Of course, we won our last road game at Missouri 35-14 on 10/16/2021, which turned out to be our most recent road win until we snapped a 10-game road losing streak with a 33-20 road win at Florida on 9/14/2024.

tjack16 said:

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Should be a lock 100% (4-0)
- UTSA
- Utah State
- Miss State
- Samford

Should win (2-1)
- Arkansas
- Auburn

Swing games (hopefully 3-1)
- Notre Dame
- Florida
- Mizzou
- South Carolina

Probable losses (0-2)
- LSU
- Texas


My personal probabilities that in no way are based on analytics… just gut feeling

9-3 = 40%
8-4 = 30%
10-2 = 20%
7-5 = 8%
6-6 or worse = 2%

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I like your personal probabilities. I think 9-3 and 8-4 are equally likely at 30%.

I do too I just don't want to think about 8-4 or a possible 8-5 again

tjack16 said:

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I do too I just don't want to think about 8-4 or a possible 8-5 again

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I don't want to think about 8-4 again either, but if I think an 8-4 regular season record with at least one November SEC win and a subsequent bowl win for a 9-4 finish will be a step in the right direction because it would mean a much better finish than ending last season with 4 consecutive losses to Power 4 opponents. That is my minimum expectation for Elko's second season. I agree that 8-5 or worse would be disappointing, even if it includes a bowl win after a 7-5 regular season. Of course, a bowl win for the first time in 5 years would be great, but it would be even better if it was our 9th win or more.

2021: 8-4 (4-4 SEC) and pulled out of Gator bowl after a Covid-19 outbreak

2022: 5-7 (2-6 SEC) and missed bowl eligibility for the first time since 2008

2023: 7-6 (4-4 SEC) after a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in Texas Bowl

2024: 8-5 (5-3 SEC) after a 35-31 loss to USC in the Las Vegas Bowl by blowing a 24-7 lead with 5:12 left in the 3rd quarter

9-4 (8-4 with bowl win) wouldn't be the end of the world but I do think with the roster we should be 9-3 regular season. The bowl game is just such a crap shoot now and 8-4 could mean 8-5 again. I'd rather go 9-3 and lose the bowl game to go 9-4 than win a bowl game after 8-4. We gotta take the next step at some point in a non covid season.

We've got 8-4 in the regular season about half as many seasons as we've been in the SEC.
2013, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2024

tjack16 said:

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9-4 (8-4 with bowl win) wouldn't be the end of the world but I do think with the roster we should be 9-3 regular season. The bowl game is just such a crap shoot now and 8-4 could mean 8-5 again. I'd rather go 9-3 and lose the bowl game to go 9-4 than win a bowl game after 8-4. We gotta take the next step at some point in a non covid season.

We've got 8-4 in the regular season about half as many seasons as we've been in the SEC.
2013, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2024

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Yes, bowl games are crapshoots. I understand that a 9-4 finish with a bowl loss looks better than a 9-4 finish with a bowl win, but that would still mean losing 4+ games for the 25th time in 27 years and extending our 10+ win season drought to 12 consecutive non-covid years (2013-2019 and 2021-2025). We have posted an 8-4 regular season record in 6 of the 12 non-covid seasons, exactly half as many seasons, since joining the SEC. It would be great if we could go 9-3 in the regular season and win the bowl game to finish 10-3, which would be our first 10+ win season since 2012. I would really love that to happen.

Am I dumb for thinking A&M wins the ND game? Didn't they lose most of their starters from last year?

Plus they're early in the season so it won't be after our trademark mid season collapse

I think that game is a lot more winnable now than it looked last year. We just need to limit mistakes and the offense needs to move the ball consistently.

I think it'll be a 20-17 type of final score

PaulsBunions said:

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Am I dumb for thinking A&M wins the ND game? Didn't they lose most of their starters from last year?

Plus they're early in the season so it won't be after our trademark mid season collapse

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No, you are not dumb for thinking Texas A&M wins the road game at Notre Dame, I think it's the most winnable road game of the 3 road games against top 10 teams Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas. We must win this road game and all 9 games in which we will likely be favorites to finish 10-2 (6-2 SEC) to make the playoffs for the first time ever. I think we will be slight favorites against Florida (home), Missouri (away), and South Carolina (home). If we beat Notre Dame, it would be our first road win over a nonconference Power 4 team since a 14-12 road win at Pittsburgh on 9/7/2002.

PaulsBunions said:

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Am I dumb for thinking A&M wins the ND game? Didn't they lose most of their starters from last year?

Plus they're early in the season so it won't be after our trademark mid season collapse

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We virtually never perform well on the road against a ranked opponent on national TV. Will this be the once a decade exception? We'll find out.

One thing you can always count on every summer is delusional outlooks. Based on performance since 2000, here is A&M's predicted record for 2025:

4-8 -- 8%
5-7 -- 4%
6-6 -- 16%
7-5 -- 16%
8-4 -- 28%
9-3 -- 8%
10-2 -- 4%

So, for those of you predicting 9 wins or better, you're going to be wrong again. We simply aren't that type of program, and there is no reason to think that will change in 2025. Stop disappointing yourselves and stop telling the rest of us we are wrong for expecting nothing better.

Guess we should just quit now

8-4

vander54 said:

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Disagree about LSU being a should lose.

I'm thinking 9-3

If Reed can hit a few more intermediate and deep balls 10-2 or maybe 11-1

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I hope he's been absolutely grinding work this off season. He's got the right personality and mindset.

halfastros81 said:

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Last year I kind of felt like the Notre Dame game was a no lose proposition. First game of new regime and they hadn't had a huge chance to fill obvious holes nor teach new schemes . This yr I feel like the Notre Dame game is a more serious barometer for where wer'e at and where we're going. For that reason I'm not going to predict anything until I see what that one looks like.

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People seem to forget we only lost by 10 points... given what we had then

Meh I think every game on our schedule is winnable. It all comes down to injuries and HEART. Our boys have been through a lot since the days of Jim Fisher, but those that are still here are Aggies. And if anyone can instill the HEART OF A CHAMPION and DISCIPLINED TEAMWORK it's Tommy Moffitt.

I think we'll end up right around 12-1.

I thought we'd win last year but I expected Weigman was 100% ready to go and that wasn't true. I think we have a good shot to be a better overall team this year and I don't necessarily think Notre Dame will be better than last year. I think they'll be a slight favorite at home. This game should be the first useful data point in my mind for what wer'e going to have this year .

Zmart39 said:

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halfastros81 said:

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Last year I kind of felt like the Notre Dame game was a no lose proposition. First game of new regime and they hadn't had a huge chance to fill obvious holes nor teach new schemes . This yr I feel like the Notre Dame game is a more serious barometer for where wer'e at and where we're going. For that reason I'm not going to predict anything until I see what that one looks like.

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People seem to forget we only lost by 10 points... given what we had then

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With competent QB play we probably win that game. Marcel will be key this year for sure in south bend

Fatboy Thaddeus said:

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Meh I think every game on our schedule is winnable. It all comes down to injuries and HEART. Our boys have been through a lot since the days of Jim Fisher, but those that are still here are Aggies. And if anyone can instill the HEART OF A CHAMPION and DISCIPLINED TEAMWORK it's Tommy Moffitt.

I think we'll end up right around 12-1.

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He believes in the heart of the cards!

….but we're still losing 4 games minimum

It's interesting that our DL is expected to be a step back from last year. Statistically they were pedestrian. I still don't see what anyone saw in NS. Can't decide if it was the X&Os or the Jimmy and Joes.

When we win more than 8 games I'll get interested. Im done getting my hopes up.

8-4 of course