Enzo The Baker said:
I don't know how Graves' speed (or lack-thereof) would translate but I like that dude's game. Slow-mo 2.0.
I obviously like his processing and passing, but the other side is just a complete waste.
He couldn't stay in front of anyone as a backup at a mid-major so they had to play him exclusively as a center hub on offense and weakside defender on defense. He's really good at disrupting passing lanes, but a lot of that is just gambling that we don't really like as a team. Around Wemby and Kornet, we really need 4 athletes that can press and switch and he isn't going to be able to do that. WE gave up so many open threes because we couldn't cover everything and recover, and he's going to be as bad as Barnes on that. He is under 6'8 and just 225lbs and probably had some weight to lose.
Plus I just don't think a hub type works with our offense as much. I think it makes more sense on a team that already uses a hub-type offense and he can work that on the second team. Since so much of our offense is about downhill slashers, a hub there is going to clog things up more.
He feels like a smaller Queen with a better (but super slow) shot. I just don't see how that is a player on our team that really features so many athletes. Things just fall apart when we don't have the athletes that can switch and recover on defense and it puts Wemby/Kornet in positions they can't succeed in on the perimeter.
Here is The Athletic deep dive:
AnalysisIt's easy to see the appeal of Graves in the modern NBA, given how much he helps you win the possession battle. He gets steals. He rebounds, creates second chances and doesn't turn the ball over. By the time he's 25 or so, the odds are good that Graves is going to be a useful rotation player.
But I think he's entering the draft a couple of years before he's ready, and the first team that acquires him isn't likely to get the most out of him. Graves still needs to improve his body and maximize whatever speed and agility he can. He needs to continue to find his offensive game, because I don't think he's there yet as a shooter. It'll require a creative basketball coach to figure out how to use him on that end, given that he operated at times as a hub for Santa Clara and won't be asked to do that in the NBA.
All the intel reports on Graves are elite, so you want to buy into him long term. But I don't believe he's going to be that useful in the NBA within the first few years of his career given the intense athletic adjustment he'll face and the way he struggled against good competition this year. If someone wants to use a later first-round pick on him, I'd get it. But that's where the range starts for me, and he received one of my last guaranteed-contract grades of the cycle.
Strengths- Graves' frame is solid for a four in the NBA. Came in at 6 feet 7.75 without shoes with a 7-foot wingspan and an 8-10.5 standing reach at the combine. He weighed 225 pounds, a good number for someone who struggled with his weight early in his high school career.
- Superb basketball IQ. Thinks the game quickly and makes his decisions at the pace you need to be a difference-maker as a role player in the NBA. Processes the space around him rapidly. Exceptionally reactive, possessing unique anticipation. The advanced analytics love him because of the way he helps teams win the possession game.
- Plays with a good motor. Consistently works to run back in transition on defense. Engaged in the play at all times and makes sure he's available for his teammates. Works hard on the glass and to establish position.
- Graves' second-best skill is his hand-eye coordination. Has great hands that catch everything in his vicinity. He also has terrific defensive playmaking ability with his hands. Averaged 1.9 steals in just 22.6 minutes per game. Santa Clara played an aggressive hedging strategy on defense that saw him blitz ballhandlers and sometimes rip the ball out of their hands. Can poke the ball away with elite timing. If you make a mistake or are careless around him for a second, you run the risk of a turnover. Not the most athletic player but has good closing speed. Also, because he reacts quickly and has strong hands, he seems to come up with any loose ball in his vicinity.
- Processes what's happening around him and reads what's going on before others do. Typically gets into the right spots. Excellent at getting his hands into passing lanes. Plays hard and is constantly engaged. Has great anticipation and ends up getting home more than most when he gambles for a steal. Knows where he's supposed to be in help situations, too, and when he arrives on time he makes himself as big as possible to cut off potential attempts at the rim and passing lanes. Not a bad shot blocker rotating across the play, either. Averaged 0.9 blocks per game.
- Transitions his defense into offense well. Had a ton of transition scores this year with his gaudy steal rate. Comfortable handling the ball in space and attacking the rim. Was effective at running the court because of his motor.
- On offense, the hope is Graves will be a floor-spacing four who can make passing reads and attack closeouts. It's a simple role, but one he has potential to fill. It'll start with 3-point shooting. Graves hit 41.3 percent from 3 this season on 2.6 attempts per game. Has a good shooting base out of spot-up situations. Gets his feet set and fires with very good touch. Presents a nice target for his teammates, involves his legs in the shot and has solid, repeatable mechanics. Typically gets into shots on a quick 1-2 step before loading into his shooting pocket and firing. Has a wide base.
- Graves made shots out of spot-ups and pick-and-pops. He's a sharp off-ball mover who relocates well and tends to make decisive movements into open space. Understands where dead areas in the defense are and consistently finds them. He's a good cutter. Was a sharp roller with good timing, understanding where defenses were rotating and how to exploit them.
- Graves is comfortable attacking bigs in space and getting to the rim when they heavily close out on him. Can put the ball on the deck with either hand and drive. Solid pump fake to get defenders in the air before driving by them.
- Has a nice floater game on the interior. Understands how to play with leverage and how to get loose from his man. Sees when to cut and when to roll. Nice touch from the 8- to 12-foot range. Nice jump-stop floater or flip shot that he can use as required. Finished with both hands. Made 61.2 percent of his attempts at the rim in total this season in half-court situations, but we'll talk about some finishing concerns in the next section.
- I love the way he passes. Dished out 1.8 assists in just 22.6 minutes per night. Good at attacking closeouts and finding kick outs. Keeps his eyes up toward the 3-point line. Great in dribble handoffs. Terrific screener who creates separation from the ballhandler's man. Also makes decisions quickly and on time. If he catches in a chain along the perimeter, consistently swings the ball quickly to his teammate. Not going to be a true shot creator but connects one part of the play to the next cleanly. Was decent in post-ups. Knows where to find his teammates cutting to the rim. Good in short-roll situations.
- The best part of his passing is that he doesn't dribble the air out of the ball before making decisions. Everything flows from one action to the next, and he doesn't hang on to it if there's nothing there. He moves the ball, then moves himself. Also does an exceptional job limiting turnovers. Doesn't make mistakes when finding his teammates. Averaged only 0.7 turnovers per game. Reads the weak side of the defense and consistently sprays it quickly.
- Graves is a solid rebounder. Averaged 2.8 offensive rebounds per game in just 22.6 minutes, a ridiculous number. This dropped against high-level competition, but he's extremely active in finding ways to swim around defenders to create second-chance opportunities. Reads the ball incredibly well off the glass. He's less effective as a defensive rebounder, but he can chip in there, too. Averaged 6.5 total rebounds per game.
Areas for improvement- Not a strong athlete by NBA standards. Lacks explosiveness, vertical lift and quick-twitch ability. Doesn't move his feet well in space. Has to load up to access his leaping ability. Gets to where he needs to be largely through understanding the game at a high level.
- Played mostly at the five in college this season in the WCC, which made things much easier for the athletic issues. Played only about 160 minutes this year at the four, per CBB Analytics, and Santa Clara lost those minutes despite typically beating its opponents by 13.8 points per 100 possessions.
- Against good competition, Graves did not post analytics numbers that suggested he should be a first-round pick. Santa Clara played 16 games versus Quad 1 and 2 competition and 18 games against Quad 3 and 4 competition, per CBB Analytics. Graves' effective field-goal percentage was 65.3 percent in the Quad 3 and 4 games, versus 50.4 percent in the Quad 1 and 2 games. His offensive rebound rate dropped from 16.3 percent to 11.3 percent against better competition, his block rate fell from 6 percent to 3.9 percent, his 2-point percentage dropped from 62.9 percent to 50 percent, and his 3-point percentage dropped from 46.8 percent to 34.1 percent.
- Those drops in production make sense on tape. We'll start on offense, where I'm most worried about his lack of athleticism. In games against Quad 1 and 2 competition, Graves shot just 54.3 percent at the rim. Seemed to struggle to finish through length and athleticism consistently as a below-the-rim player without a ton of hang time or flexibility in his movements.
- Graves doesn't make shots on the move. Has a slower release, which takes time to load into. That is a big reason his 3-point volume was not strong this season. I don't see him as more than a catch-and-shoot weapon, and it will take some work on his mechanics for him to become a shooter who gets 3s up at volume. He'd need to thin out his base and become more comfortable taking 3s directly off the hop. Given how long it takes him to get into the shot, I worry that NBA competition will help off him and feel it can get a later closeout.
- On defense, I worry about how he'll translate athletically. Santa Clara would aggressively hedge and recover with him at the five and blitz opposing ballhandlers. I don't think that's a tenable strategy in the NBA, however, because he's not quick enough to play in recovery and because playing in four-on-three situations in the NBA is a terrible plan.
- Graves will have to play in switch situations regularly against NBA-level athletes, and I didn't love his defense in space this season against quicker guys. He tended to get blown by too easily. He's good in recovery with little pokes and with his length going up to contest from behind. I worry, however, that he might end up being a target in on-ball situations for quicker guards or shifty wings to attack.
- He fouled at a prodigious level. Averaged 3.1 fouls per game in just 22.6 minutes per game, or 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. He'd get hit with fouls on reaches when he'd been beaten and when he'd try to rotate across the play to protect the rim on the interior. Can get overzealous with his body inside and foul using his chest and come down with his arms. Plays with great anticipation but needs to moderate the aggressiveness.
- Even though he played the five and blocked some shots this year, he can't be a rim protector in the NBA. Opponents feasted at the rim with him at the five, shooting 40 percent of their attempts at the rim and making 64.3 percent, per CBB Analytics. This was a huge reason opponents were drastically better on offense with Graves on the court. Santa Clara gave up 109.9 points per 100 possessions when Graves was on the court versus 105.1 points per 100 when he was off the court. Santa Clara also had a better defensive turnover rate when Graves was off the court versus on the court, sparking questions regarding whether the gaudy steal numbers were more scheme-based as compared to skill-based.
- I thought many of his steals against bad teams wouldn't work in the NBA against elite guards. Because several of them came from overwhelming bad ballhandlers, who would try to spin or pivot out of his blitzes, he'd swim move around them and go get the ball. Graves' hands are elite and his length is good, but I don't see him surprising NBA-level ballhandlers, even with the closing speed he has.