Correct! If you look at my post at 7:29, I had figured it out.
***Official Houston Astros 2025-26 Offseason Thread***
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Last: 10 min ago by BadAggie
BadAggie said:
He's figuring out what he wants to do with Dana first.
I get that, but there really shouldn't be any sort of decision to make on Espada and his staff....I can't imagine that they're going to be retained.
2014 <---- Signs of turnaround **AJ Hinch**
2015 <---- ALDS
2016 <---- Down Year
2017 <---- WS Winners
2018 <---- ALCS
2019 <---- WS
2020 <---- ALCS **Dusty Baker**
2021 <---- WS
2022 <---- WS Winners
2023 <---- ALCS
2024 <---- ALWC (0-2) **Joe Espada**
2025 <---- No playoffs
Seems pretty simple to me.
The "injuries" excuse doesn't hold water as they got healthier throughout and the pitching staff held their own despite the worst of the injuries. They were also buyers at the deadline and got reinforcements and were passed and beaten into the playoffs by sellers (Cleveland)...that's the killer, for me.
Quote:
Seems pretty simple to me.
I know it seems that way but it's not. I imagine it's anything but simple.
Ag_07 said:Quote:
Seems pretty simple to me.
I know it seems that way but it's not. I imagine it's anything but simple.
If Joe Espada is the manager next year, there is going to be a ton of apathy within the fanbase that actually follows this team (the casuals will still be there for a while); there's nothing to overthink.
Granted, I'm not privvy to all the information, so you're right...but there'd have to be a LOT that is happening behind the scenes which goes against what's visible on the field to justify his retention.
There's a guy under contract who from July 1 on (about half the season) hit .264 with an .807 OPS, 17 HR and 51 RBIs.
For some reason, he's being left out of next year's projected lineup while our rookie right fielder that hit .188 over that same timeframe is being penciled in as a starter.
For some reason, he's being left out of next year's projected lineup while our rookie right fielder that hit .188 over that same timeframe is being penciled in as a starter.
iBrad said:
There's a guy under contract who from July 1 on (about half the season) hit .264 with an .807 OPS, 17 HR and 51 RBIs.
For some reason, he's being left out of next year's projected lineup while our rookie right fielder that hit .188 over that same timeframe is being penciled in as a starter.
I'll bite...I've done a mind wipe over the last week of everything since they got onto the plane to leave the Dodgers' series; obviously not any of the deadline acquisitions and I don't think Dubon was that reliable in the 2nd half.
The Beef01 said:BadAggie said:
He's figuring out what he wants to do with Dana first.
I get that, but there really shouldn't be any sort of decision to make on Espada and his staff....I can't imagine that they're going to be retained.
2014 <---- Signs of turnaround **AJ Hinch**
2015 <---- ALDS
2016 <---- Down Year
2017 <---- WS Winners
2018 <---- ALCS
2019 <---- WS
2020 <---- ALCS **Dusty Baker**
2021 <---- WS
2022 <---- WS Winners
2023 <---- ALCS
2024 <---- ALWC (0-2) **Joe Espada**
2025 <---- No playoffs
Seems pretty simple to me.
The "injuries" excuse doesn't hold water as they got healthier throughout and the pitching staff held their own despite the worst of the injuries. They were also buyers at the deadline and got reinforcements and were passed and beaten into the playoffs by sellers (Cleveland)...that's the killer, for me.
We didn't get healthier throughout. Paredes, Yordan, and Jake missed most of the second half. Pena missed half the games the second half of the season. Our bullpen went to crap due to injuries. And while some starters pitched okay, Framber pitched like a AAA spot starter and cost us a playoff spot with his 5.63 ERA over his last 11 starts.
You also have to compare rosters. It's an absolutely travesty that we don't have a WS banner hanging for 2019, as that's the best roster we've ever had and probably ever will have. I'll cut us a little slack for 2021 since LMJ got hurt in the playoffs and our rotation wasn't as strong. But the roster has been declining since with some bad signings (Abreu and Montero) taking up salary to not play.
I still say that Espada's ability to navigate the Abreu situation, which was largely dictated by the front office, and Tucker's broken shin to lead the team from the doldrums to a division title was impressive. Unfortunately, we ran into the best pitcher in baseball in the Wild Card series and in game two, our dysfunctional bullpen blew it.
Given the injuries and lineups we rolled out this season, it was again impressive that we were in the race in late September. I fully believe we would have won the division without Yordan's ankle injury. That took the wind out of our sails and left a gaping hole in the lineup.
All that to say, only comparing season results is an oversimplified approach, because like I said, not winning it all in 2019 with that roster feels like a failure.
Carlos needs to get on the bonds high cycle and hit bombs as he ages
Add like 20 lb of muscle between now and March
He's not playing shortstop anymore and can carry some more weight
Add like 20 lb of muscle between now and March
He's not playing shortstop anymore and can carry some more weight
I think Dana's contract and standing with the team has a lot to do with Joe's. IIRC Joe was Dana's guy so I think they're tied at the hip.
I can see why they wouldn't want to fire and hire a new manager if Dana is gonna be gone after next season and a new GM is going to want to fire that manager and hire his own guy. Basically they'd be hiring a lame duck manager.
I think what we might be seeing is make some lesser changes to the staff (hitting coaches and 3B), run it back with Joe and Dana in 2026, then wipe it clean and restart in 2027 with a new GM and his selected manager hire.
Not saying it's what I would do or that I'm excited for that possibility, but just that there are more complicated things at play than simply 'Joe failed and needs to be replaced'.
I can see why they wouldn't want to fire and hire a new manager if Dana is gonna be gone after next season and a new GM is going to want to fire that manager and hire his own guy. Basically they'd be hiring a lame duck manager.
I think what we might be seeing is make some lesser changes to the staff (hitting coaches and 3B), run it back with Joe and Dana in 2026, then wipe it clean and restart in 2027 with a new GM and his selected manager hire.
Not saying it's what I would do or that I'm excited for that possibility, but just that there are more complicated things at play than simply 'Joe failed and needs to be replaced'.
The Beef01 said:BadAggie said:
He's figuring out what he wants to do with Dana first.
I get that, but there really shouldn't be any sort of decision to make on Espada and his staff....I can't imagine that they're going to be retained.
2014 <---- Signs of turnaround **AJ Hinch**
2015 <---- ALDS
2016 <---- Down Year
2017 <---- WS Winners
2018 <---- ALCS
2019 <---- WS
2020 <---- ALCS **Dusty Baker**
2021 <---- WS
2022 <---- WS Winners
2023 <---- ALCS
2024 <---- ALWC (0-2) **Joe Espada**
2025 <---- No playoffs
Seems pretty simple to me.
The "injuries" excuse doesn't hold water as they got healthier throughout and the pitching staff held their own despite the worst of the injuries. They were also buyers at the deadline and got reinforcements and were passed and beaten into the playoffs by sellers (Cleveland)...that's the killer, for me.
Just for accuracy, the pitching didn't hold its own after the ASB (mostly from 8/1 onward), with Framber's meltdown and the loss of Hader leading to a bullpen implosion among the causes. But I agree with you on the bottom line. This team got better in June when we lost the veteran hitters and were playing a bunch of scrappy AAA guys trying to make the most of their opportunities. We got worse when the vets came back, with the exception of the short 10 game stretch where Yordan was healthy. It was very clear near the end of the season that at least some of our guys were just going through the motions, particularly at the plate, and to me that is an indictment of Espada's control/motivation of the team.
Beat40 said:Wabs said:
Because I think we have too many holes to plug if we want to compete for the division. UNLESS of course Crane is willing to spend at the Dodgers or Yankees level of payroll - which I think is unlikely.
It took a historical year from a catcher in Seattle and a ton of injuries from the Astros for the Astros to lose the division this year.
I think competing for the division if we have even half the injuries as we did this year is entirely possible when adding a couple more pieces.
CW was a 5-6 hole hitter second half of the season. 118 OPS+ the second half. This board is stuck on a narrative with CW and for some reason isn't willing to be reasonable in discussion of him.
Now, competing for a pennant or WS is a slightly different discussion.
I agree for the most part. As much as I would like to blow it up and have some really crappy years in hopes of another massive run like this, I think we still have the juice to make playoffs, win division titles and be a hot team to win a WS.
We saw each sides of the coin during this run.
We set up a massive run by tanking with 3 100+ loss seasons. We had more talent than most and the right management in place to build a monster. We won two championships doing this.
We also lost multiple championships to far less talented teams who were simply hot at the right time. We still have the ability to be one of those teams.
Ag_07 said:
I think Dana's contract and standing with the team has a lot to do with Joe's. IIRC Joe was Dana's guy so I think they're tied at the hip.
I can see why they wouldn't want to fire and hire a new manager if Dana is gonna be gone after next season and a new GM is going to want to fire that manager and hire his own guy. Basically they'd be hiring a lame duck manager.
I think what we might be seeing is make some lesser changes to the staff (hitting coaches and 3B), run it back with Joe and Dana in 2026, then wipe it clean and restart in 2027 with a new GM and his selected manager hire.
Not saying it's what I would do or that I'm excited for that possibility, but just that there are more complicated things at play than simply 'Joe failed and needs to be replaced'.
If Crane has Dana and Joe tied at the hip, then he's making a stupid decision.
If 2015 is saying behind the scenes there are questions about Joe's ability to lead men, you only learn that when the guy gets thrust into the spotlight as the head guy. I guarantee you Crane met with Espada and had input if he would be ok with Joe as the manager. By all accounts, the players supported him becoming manager as well. I'm sure Altuve vouched for him.
By all accounts, Joe's first year started out rough, but showed a lot of promise. This was a rough year for sure.
Crane has shown the ability to separate out GM and Manager performance, and I expect him to do the same here.
I expect one of these two scenarios to play out for next year:
1) Hitting coaches are gone. Maybe another coach as well. Joe and Dana stay.
2) Staff overhaul, including Joe, while trying to convince the pitching lab to stay. Dana stay.
I give both of those around 95% odds. 5% to me is both Joe and Dana gone.
After firing Click post WS win, if Crane turns around and fires Dana after an injury-riddled season like we just had, he's going to be viewed as a tough owner to work for. Winning a WS isn't enough to keep your job and you get absolutely no breaks from the absurd amount of injuries we had this season.
Keep in mind, Dana is finally free from the Abreu and Montero contracts that Crane saddled him with. And by all accounts, Hader was a Crane signing, too, which probably wasn't the wisest investment and definitely wasn't the best clubhouse signing, considering it led to Pressly's demotion and forced Dana to make a trade last offseason.
All things considered, I just don't know how you could justify firing Dana at this point without looking like a complete ass who can't get along with anyone and is hard to work for.
Dana's had one offseason where Crane made all the major acquisitions and one where there was very little financial flexibility thanks to those Crane acquisitions. I'm eager to see what he pulls off this offseason, as I think it will determine his future with the club.
Keep in mind, Dana is finally free from the Abreu and Montero contracts that Crane saddled him with. And by all accounts, Hader was a Crane signing, too, which probably wasn't the wisest investment and definitely wasn't the best clubhouse signing, considering it led to Pressly's demotion and forced Dana to make a trade last offseason.
All things considered, I just don't know how you could justify firing Dana at this point without looking like a complete ass who can't get along with anyone and is hard to work for.
Dana's had one offseason where Crane made all the major acquisitions and one where there was very little financial flexibility thanks to those Crane acquisitions. I'm eager to see what he pulls off this offseason, as I think it will determine his future with the club.
While the pitching lab gets results, we also blow out elbows at an alarming rate. I know it's a league-wide epidemic, but has anyone had more TJ surgeries than us over the past 4-5 years?
I think it's something that has to be looked at. Getting the most out of pitchers is great, but when they're being shelved for 18+ months, that's not really doing much for you, especially when they're carrying a salary that prevents you from signing others.
I think it's something that has to be looked at. Getting the most out of pitchers is great, but when they're being shelved for 18+ months, that's not really doing much for you, especially when they're carrying a salary that prevents you from signing others.
I do think people in sports forget how easily a clubhouse cancer can ruin a team's chemistry. It's happened all throughout sports history. There have been teams who have gotten better once the cancer left the locker room, without changing the rest of the personnel significantly.
No one here is giving any thought to Framber possibly being a huge clubhouse cancer the second half of the season. What we saw publicly lines up with the timeline too.
A lot of people say Joe didn't handle it well. Problem is we're not in the building. 2015 will have to tell us how he handled it, but maybe he wanted to handle it a certain way and Dana said no. Maybe he and Dana wanted to handle it one way and Crane said no.
I wasn't happy with the back half of the season, but losing Parades and Hader were huge, huge issues for the team.
As far as guys sleepwalking at the plate - I think ascribing emotion to a player from the outside is difficult. It has happened all to often on this board where in a game the team is losing the comments are along the lines of "it looks like they don't to win this game," "they don't look interested," "they don't care," and then they come back and win that game.
What was easy to see was the team was having a lot more fun the first half and not as much fun the second half. That was actually clearly visible. Whether that was because Joe is a bad leader of men and he lost the team, or Framber was such huge ***** to publicly blast his guys it created rifts we can't know without being in the locker room. It's maybe a little of both in reality.
No one here is giving any thought to Framber possibly being a huge clubhouse cancer the second half of the season. What we saw publicly lines up with the timeline too.
A lot of people say Joe didn't handle it well. Problem is we're not in the building. 2015 will have to tell us how he handled it, but maybe he wanted to handle it a certain way and Dana said no. Maybe he and Dana wanted to handle it one way and Crane said no.
I wasn't happy with the back half of the season, but losing Parades and Hader were huge, huge issues for the team.
As far as guys sleepwalking at the plate - I think ascribing emotion to a player from the outside is difficult. It has happened all to often on this board where in a game the team is losing the comments are along the lines of "it looks like they don't to win this game," "they don't look interested," "they don't care," and then they come back and win that game.
What was easy to see was the team was having a lot more fun the first half and not as much fun the second half. That was actually clearly visible. Whether that was because Joe is a bad leader of men and he lost the team, or Framber was such huge ***** to publicly blast his guys it created rifts we can't know without being in the locker room. It's maybe a little of both in reality.
Pretty good spreadsheet of TJ surgeries by team here although it is not updated through the end of this year based on the Astros pitchers that went out late in the season:
Tommy John Surgery List (@MLBPlayerAnalys) - Google Sheets
I don't have the time to do it today, but somebody can go through and total up the # for each team by MLB and MiLB pitchers and get the answer. My gut feel is that we probably are not any more prone to it than most other teams in terms of overall #s, but it hit us hard this year because so many of them were guys we were counting on for the starting rotation.
Tommy John Surgery List (@MLBPlayerAnalys) - Google Sheets
I don't have the time to do it today, but somebody can go through and total up the # for each team by MLB and MiLB pitchers and get the answer. My gut feel is that we probably are not any more prone to it than most other teams in terms of overall #s, but it hit us hard this year because so many of them were guys we were counting on for the starting rotation.
Beat40 said:
I do think people in sports forget how easily a clubhouse cancer can ruin a team's. It's happened all throughout sports history. There have been teams who have gotten better once the cancer left the locker room, without changing the rest of the personnel significantly.
No one here is giving any thought to Framber possibly being a huge clubhouse cancer the second half of the season. What we saw publicly lines up with the timeline too.
A lot of people say Joe didn't handle it well. Problem is we're not in the building. 2015 will have to tell us how he handled it, but maybe he wanted to handle it a certain way and Dana said no. Maybe he and Dana wanted to handle it one way and Crane said no.
I wasn't happy with the back half of the season, but losing Parades and Hader were huge, huge issues for the team.
As far as guys sleepwalking at the plate - I think ascribing emotion to a player from the outside is difficult. It has happened all to often on this board where in a game the team is losing the comments are along the lines of "it looks like they don't to win this game," "they don't look interested," "they don't care," and then they come back and win that game.
What was easy to see was the team was having a lot more fun the first half and not as much fun the second half. That was actually clearly visible. Whether that was because Joe is a bad leader of men and he lost the team, or Framber was such huge ***** to publicly blast his guys it created rifts we can't know without being in the locker room. It's maybe a little of both in reality.
I honestly don't know the details of how they handled the Framber situation, so I don't want to speculate.
I've been told Framber is extremely likeable about 95% of the time and that's why he's been forgiven so many times in the past. He's usually quick to apologize and take accountability.
I do know that this time was different and I think it was the last straw for a lot of the guys in the clubhouse. It got ugly.
That said - I don't think the performance of the team during the second half had anything to do with that one single instance.
I've asked about the part I highlighted above because it was clear to me (and everyone else) that the body language down the stretch seemed poor and it looked like the guys weren't having fun like Beat40 says. The only thing I was told was the guys were exhausted and banged up and mentally drained. They've played a LOT of baseball the last few years - more than just about any other club. Seeing guys go down repeatedly with injury and others having to step up in different ways just frankly took a toll on them down the stretch.
Is some of it on Joe? Maybe. I really don't know. But I think it's reasonable to believe that this team just ran out of gas. That doesn't mean they need to run everything back, but I think there's a world where they heal up and get rested over the offseason and look like a brand new team.
When you look at the injuries and who they lost, it's reasonable to believe this could have been a 95-100 win team if they were able to stay healthy.
One thing I know about Jim Crane is he despises losing and he's going to look at the complete picture and decide what needs to be done to get better. Whether it's roster changes, coaching changes, whatever. I wouldn't rule anything out. That's why (even though some disagree) I think there's a much larger than zero percent chance they retain Espada. It's absolutely possible they do - don't get me wrong. But last I heard is Crane is evaluating everything and it could go in many different directions.
It's going to be an interesting offseason.
Ag_07 said:
I think Dana's contract and standing with the team has a lot to do with Joe's. IIRC Joe was Dana's guy so I think they're tied at the hip.
I can see why they wouldn't want to fire and hire a new manager if Dana is gonna be gone after next season and a new GM is going to want to fire that manager and hire his own guy. Basically they'd be hiring a lame duck manager.
I think what we might be seeing is make some lesser changes to the staff (hitting coaches and 3B), run it back with Joe and Dana in 2026, then wipe it clean and restart in 2027 with a new GM and his selected manager hire.
Not saying it's what I would do or that I'm excited for that possibility, but just that there are more complicated things at play than simply 'Joe failed and needs to be replaced'.
Man, I really hope this is not Crane's thinking. We'd basically be writing off 2026 and delaying a rebuild IMO. I understand there are contract issues and entanglements, but I think you have to start at getting rid of Joe (and the coaching staff). If Dana and Joe are really "tied at the hip", then maybe Dana needs to go as well.
Any success in 2026 relies on most (if not all) the stars staying healthy and in some cases stars returning back to their "star form". Add in that we'd need youngsters to take the next step - Cam, Brice, Dezenzo, etc. Plus, we'd need to add a SP and bullpen help. Are all these things possible? Maybe. And if they do all fall into place, is Joe the right guy in the manager position?
I just think it's a bridge too far. So why delay the rebuild? Our key pieces have their most trade value now.
iBrad said:
While the pitching lab gets results, we also blow out elbows at an alarming rate. I know it's a league-wide epidemic, but has anyone had more TJ surgeries than us over the past 4-5 years?
I think it's something that has to be looked at. Getting the most out of pitchers is great, but when they're being shelved for 18+ months, that's not really doing much for you, especially when they're carrying a salary that prevents you from signing others.
It's a league wide issue, brother. I think we follow this team more closely and think our team is more guilty of malpractice than other teams.
On other thing I think contributing to pitcher injuries for the Astros is those scrap heap guys they turn into nasty pitchers. They've haven't been that good so they don't pitch much. They come to the Astros and buy into the method so they can try to get that pay day. They perform well, but are used more than they have in the past and then get hurt. Thats my opinion on what happened with Ort and D'Souza this year.
Astros had the most this year they've had since 2020, and they still didn't lead the league in TJ surgeries. As a matter of fact, 2024 was the worst year prior to 2025 with 3 TJs being required. 2022 required none.
2025: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?groupby=team&timeframe=all&injury=tj&season=2025
2024: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?groupby=team&timeframe=all&injury=tj&season=2024
2023: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?groupby=team&timeframe=all&injury=tj&season=2023
2022: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?groupby=team&timeframe=all&injury=tj&season=2022
2021: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?groupby=team&timeframe=all&injury=tj&season=2021
2020: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?groupby=team&timeframe=all&injury=tj&season=2020
Wabs said:Ag_07 said:
I think Dana's contract and standing with the team has a lot to do with Joe's. IIRC Joe was Dana's guy so I think they're tied at the hip.
I can see why they wouldn't want to fire and hire a new manager if Dana is gonna be gone after next season and a new GM is going to want to fire that manager and hire his own guy. Basically they'd be hiring a lame duck manager.
I think what we might be seeing is make some lesser changes to the staff (hitting coaches and 3B), run it back with Joe and Dana in 2026, then wipe it clean and restart in 2027 with a new GM and his selected manager hire.
Not saying it's what I would do or that I'm excited for that possibility, but just that there are more complicated things at play than simply 'Joe failed and needs to be replaced'.
Man, I really hope this is not Crane's thinking. We'd basically be writing off 2026 and delaying a rebuild IMO. I understand there are contract issues and entanglements, but I think you have to start at getting rid of Joe (and the coaching staff). If Dana and Joe are really "tied at the hip", then maybe Dana needs to go as well.
Any success in 2026 relies on most (if not all) the stars staying healthy and in some cases stars returning back to their "star form". Add in that we'd need youngsters to take the next step - Cam, Brice, Dezenzo, etc. Plus, we'd need to add a SP and bullpen help. Are all these things possible? Maybe. And if they do all fall into place, is Joe the right guy in the manager position?
I just think it's a bridge too far. So why delay the rebuild? Our key pieces have their most trade value now.
All teams not named the Yankees and Dodgers rely on their star players to stay healthy and perform as star players. All players need young guys to take the next step and develop. Most teams have that one guy they're hoping returns to form or guy they took a flyer on. You're describing the reality of baseball and sports in general.
My view of your view of this team is it's unreasonably critical
This team had about the worst possible injury scenario it could have possibly had and was STILL right there knocking on the door. I don't know how you can see that and say blow it all up without at least giving it one more try.
SP will be the biggest need in my opinion this offseason.
Maybe you'll end up being right.
I'll take a look at it this evening if I can devote a little time to the google sheet.
The little work I already did suggest this year was just an unlucky year for the Astros and the Astros have never lead the league on a per year basis in TJ surgery's since 2020.
The little work I already did suggest this year was just an unlucky year for the Astros and the Astros have never lead the league on a per year basis in TJ surgery's since 2020.
Im not even as down on our roster as you all. I just really cant stand our hitting philosophy as a team and that is far more of a problem to me.
There is plenty of proven talent on this roster to score a ton more than we did, and if we are even average we easily make the playoffs.
Pitching - that i chalk up to injuries. With a healthy hader, or Souza even, how many more games do we win? For sure at least 2. The trickle down affect is real in thr bullpen. Not even talking about the injuries with the rotation...
There is plenty of proven talent on this roster to score a ton more than we did, and if we are even average we easily make the playoffs.
Pitching - that i chalk up to injuries. With a healthy hader, or Souza even, how many more games do we win? For sure at least 2. The trickle down affect is real in thr bullpen. Not even talking about the injuries with the rotation...
I'm just coming from watching sports for 30 years - there have been a lot of teams in sports history where a clubhouse cancer has dragged a team down.
I do think the reality is it's in the middle. Either way, as you said, I expect Crane to be thorough in his evaluation this offseason.
I'm quite curious how thorough he becomes after the Tigers get bounced from the post-season.
I do think the reality is it's in the middle. Either way, as you said, I expect Crane to be thorough in his evaluation this offseason.
I'm quite curious how thorough he becomes after the Tigers get bounced from the post-season.
Oh, I can certainly see how you'd think my stance is unreasonably critical. And believe me, if we do keep mostly everyone (including Joe), I would happily eat a big steaming bowl of crow if I'm wrong. I'm just not a fan of partial rebuilds and band-aids. At the very minimum, there needs to be change of hitting coaches and overall philosophy. Our offense this season was painful to watch.
Beat40 said:Wabs said:Ag_07 said:
I think Dana's contract and standing with the team has a lot to do with Joe's. IIRC Joe was Dana's guy so I think they're tied at the hip.
I can see why they wouldn't want to fire and hire a new manager if Dana is gonna be gone after next season and a new GM is going to want to fire that manager and hire his own guy. Basically they'd be hiring a lame duck manager.
I think what we might be seeing is make some lesser changes to the staff (hitting coaches and 3B), run it back with Joe and Dana in 2026, then wipe it clean and restart in 2027 with a new GM and his selected manager hire.
Not saying it's what I would do or that I'm excited for that possibility, but just that there are more complicated things at play than simply 'Joe failed and needs to be replaced'.
Man, I really hope this is not Crane's thinking. We'd basically be writing off 2026 and delaying a rebuild IMO. I understand there are contract issues and entanglements, but I think you have to start at getting rid of Joe (and the coaching staff). If Dana and Joe are really "tied at the hip", then maybe Dana needs to go as well.
Any success in 2026 relies on most (if not all) the stars staying healthy and in some cases stars returning back to their "star form". Add in that we'd need youngsters to take the next step - Cam, Brice, Dezenzo, etc. Plus, we'd need to add a SP and bullpen help. Are all these things possible? Maybe. And if they do all fall into place, is Joe the right guy in the manager position?
I just think it's a bridge too far. So why delay the rebuild? Our key pieces have their most trade value now.
All teams not named the Yankees and Dodgers rely on their star players to stay healthy and perform as star players. All players need young guys to take the next step and develop. Most teams have that one guy they're hoping returns to form or guy they took a flyer on. You're describing the reality of baseball and sports in general.
My view of your view of this team is it's unreasonably critical
This team had about the worst possible injury scenario it could have possibly had and was STILL right there knocking on the door. I don't know how you can see that and say blow it all up without at least giving it one more try.
SP will be the biggest need in my opinion this offseason.
Maybe you'll end up being right.
I think the main argument for the rebuild now group is that our potential trade pieces like Yordan, HB, Pena, etc lose trade value over time as their years of team control left get shorter. Trading them as mid-season trade deadline rentals in their final year down the road or just taking the Rule 5 picks if they leave in FA will not bring anywhere near the haul we might be able to get for them now. If we don't use those few key trade pieces we have to maximize return in the next year or so, we may have nothing left to use to get the kind of prospects we need for the longer term rebuild that will come eventually. We will have to build entirely through the draft at that point and that means having several down years to accumulate the picks necessary to hopefully eventually get back to the top. Unless Crane is willing to crack his checkbook open to resign some of our prime guys to long term deals or add some (non-washed up 1B) FAs, rebuilding through prospects and/or draft picks will be our eventual future.
Beat40 said:
I'll take a look at it this evening if I can devote a little time to the google sheet.
The little work I already did suggest this year was just an unlucky year for the Astros and the Astros have never lead the league on a per year basis in TJ surgery's since 2020.
I tend to agree with you based on what I saw in the spreadsheet. I think it stuck out because so many of the guys we lost were ones we planned to rely on. In other years, losing random guys from MiLB or from the back end of the MLB bullpen just doesn't hurt like losing an entire starting rotation full of guys you were counting on to contribute.
Here is what my gut tells me about the offseason. Medium to minimal change. I could see some changes within the coaching staff, but I think Joe is back. Same with Dana. He might mix in a few new people, but he's back too. I don't think we spend any crazy money, but 2-3 mid-level types to backfill Caratini, a bullpen arm, etc. I think the signature offseason move is trading for a starter. Someone with a high ceiling who hasn't reached it yet, with at least 2 years of control. I think we run it back with largely the same roster. I don't really hate that idea.
Just hard for me to sit back and think a successful man like Jim Crane can evaluate Joe through 2 seasons and think he is a leader to can lead this team to its full potential.
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.
Beat40 said:Wabs said:
Because I think we have too many holes to plug if we want to compete for the division. UNLESS of course Crane is willing to spend at the Dodgers or Yankees level of payroll - which I think is unlikely.
It took a historical year from a catcher in Seattle and a ton of injuries from the Astros for the Astros to lose the division this year.
I think competing for the division if we have even half the injuries as we did this year is entirely possible when adding a couple more pieces.
CW was a 5-6 hole hitter second half of the season. 118 OPS+ the second half. This board is stuck on a narrative with CW and for some reason isn't willing to be reasonable in discussion of him.
Now, competing for a pennant or WS is a slightly different discussion.
100%
If a trade for CW that benefits both parties emerges and he's moved, we're still a likely CC injury from needing Paredes back at 3rd or someone else. Maybe a decent 3B backup can be acquired in said hypothetical deal.
If you decide to rebuild now, you're guaranteeing 3 years minimum really bad seasons. Then, after that, it's hoping year after year your team will at least make the steps back to .500 to then springboard to 90+ wins. Again, what the Astros did from 2011-2014 and then the success coming in 2015 is really rare. Please remember that.
It could work out, but it just seems like a hell of a knee jerk reaction. I know you're in the camp of firing hitting coaches and Joe. D you think this team has the talent to win the division next year given we don't lose the most WAR to injury next season and there are new coaches?
That's where the struggle is for me with going straight to a rebuild. Injuries quite literally ****ed the Astros last year, we miss the post season one year, and it's time to blow it up.
As a fan - I want to watch my team play post-season baseball. I think there is a path to do that the next 2 years at minimum if the right SP and BP guys are added. Where I sit right now, I'm willing to gamble for a shot at 2 more pennants and maybe struggle 5-10 years after that.
Just doesn't also sit well with me to basically tell Altuve to **** off in his final years of his career.
It could work out, but it just seems like a hell of a knee jerk reaction. I know you're in the camp of firing hitting coaches and Joe. D you think this team has the talent to win the division next year given we don't lose the most WAR to injury next season and there are new coaches?
That's where the struggle is for me with going straight to a rebuild. Injuries quite literally ****ed the Astros last year, we miss the post season one year, and it's time to blow it up.
As a fan - I want to watch my team play post-season baseball. I think there is a path to do that the next 2 years at minimum if the right SP and BP guys are added. Where I sit right now, I'm willing to gamble for a shot at 2 more pennants and maybe struggle 5-10 years after that.
Just doesn't also sit well with me to basically tell Altuve to **** off in his final years of his career.
Farmer1906 said:
Here is what my gut tells me about the offseason. Medium to minimal change. I could see some changes within the coaching staff, but I think Joe is back. Same with Dana. He might mix in a few new people, but he's back too. I don't think we spend any crazy money, but 2-3 mid-level types to backfill Caratini, a bullpen arm, etc. I think the signature offseason move is trading for a starter. Someone with a high ceiling who hasn't reached it yet, with at least 2 years of control. I think we run it back with largely the same roster. I don't really hate that idea.
This is inline with my thoughts, although I'm less bullish on Joe being back. I'm really curious to see what happens when the Tigers get bounced. Probably nothing there, but Tigers extension talks with Hinch slowed as they skidded into the post-season. If Tigers get bounced in the WC or round 1, I wonder how their talks shift and where Crane's mind goes.
I want to like CW but my perception of the volume of strikeouts and the frequency of strikeouts in big moments is a major turnoff and quite concerning to me.
If we judge the roster, position by position, where do we make improvements?
C: Yainer - young, cheap, high ceiling. No clear upgrade in FA. Add a vet to mix in.
1B: Walker - down year and getting older, but the contract keeps him here. Mix in Paredes at the position.
2B: Altuve - not getting rid of the goat. Dubon & Urias are fine back-ups, so let's keep them having back-up plate appearance #s.
3B: Correa - took to the position well. Projects to still be above average offensively. Get Paredes reps here too.
SS: Pena - breakout season. One of the best SSs in baseball.
LF: Cole - young guy worth seeing what he is. Alvarez will play some here too. This could be a spot we add a quality bat to mix in.
CF: Meyers - semi breakout season. Still plus defensively. It could be plus offensively.
RF: Smith/Sanchez - yougn player we are invested in plus a solid platoon player.
DH: Yordan - top tier bat when healthy. Will mix in with Paredes, Altuve, Correa, Walker, Diaz, etc
Another OF bat seems like a good option. But outside of that, I don't see any obvious spots where we will be able to make a significant improvement.
C: Yainer - young, cheap, high ceiling. No clear upgrade in FA. Add a vet to mix in.
1B: Walker - down year and getting older, but the contract keeps him here. Mix in Paredes at the position.
2B: Altuve - not getting rid of the goat. Dubon & Urias are fine back-ups, so let's keep them having back-up plate appearance #s.
3B: Correa - took to the position well. Projects to still be above average offensively. Get Paredes reps here too.
SS: Pena - breakout season. One of the best SSs in baseball.
LF: Cole - young guy worth seeing what he is. Alvarez will play some here too. This could be a spot we add a quality bat to mix in.
CF: Meyers - semi breakout season. Still plus defensively. It could be plus offensively.
RF: Smith/Sanchez - yougn player we are invested in plus a solid platoon player.
DH: Yordan - top tier bat when healthy. Will mix in with Paredes, Altuve, Correa, Walker, Diaz, etc
Another OF bat seems like a good option. But outside of that, I don't see any obvious spots where we will be able to make a significant improvement.
Understandable but I don't think CW was the only one that often struggled in said moments, and when he'd have a good game, it seemed like it never happened the next or even the same game. He obviously needs to get better in big moments if he sticks around which it may be too late for as we saw with Abreu. Thing is I don't remember the same vitriol for him as Walker until the 2nd year.
Moving Christian down in the order where he belongs should help IMO.
Moving Christian down in the order where he belongs should help IMO.
Mr. Awesome Time said:Beat40 said:Wabs said:
Because I think we have too many holes to plug if we want to compete for the division. UNLESS of course Crane is willing to spend at the Dodgers or Yankees level of payroll - which I think is unlikely.
It took a historical year from a catcher in Seattle and a ton of injuries from the Astros for the Astros to lose the division this year.
I think competing for the division if we have even half the injuries as we did this year is entirely possible when adding a couple more pieces.
CW was a 5-6 hole hitter second half of the season. 118 OPS+ the second half. This board is stuck on a narrative with CW and for some reason isn't willing to be reasonable in discussion of him.
Now, competing for a pennant or WS is a slightly different discussion.
100%
If a trade for CW that benefits both parties emerges and he's moved, we're still a likely CC injury from needing Paredes back at 3rd or someone else. Maybe a decent 3B backup can be acquired in said hypothetical deal.
Urias?
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