maddiedou said:

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I need gold at 4,000 and silver at 55 So that I can sell my silver for 50 . And I am out

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Fitch said:

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maddiedou said:

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I need gold at 4,000 and silver at 55 So that I can sell my silver for 50 . And I am out

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Well yeah it has to go thru $4000 before it can hit $5000 and then so on to ~$22k.

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Mas89 said:

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4,000 would not surprise me. But let's not forget gold is now up 47 percent from 4-22-2024.
Just like all the funds and money that poured into the magnificent 7 stocks over the past 2 years, the gold price imo has been artificially propelled up and it will eventually have a big pull back. Same with the current cattle markets- lots of big money being made that will eventually have a big return to earth. Currently at all time highs while grains and oil/ gas are in the tank.

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Mas89 said:

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4,000 would not surprise me. But let's not forget gold is now up 47 percent from 4-22-2024.
Just like all the funds and money that poured into the magnificent 7 stocks over the past 2 years, the gold price imo has been artificially propelled up and it will eventually have a big pull back. Same with the current cattle markets- lots of big money being made that will eventually have a big return to earth. Currently at all time highs while grains and oil/ gas are in the tank.

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carl spacklers hat said:

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Mas89 said:

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4,000 would not surprise me. But let's not forget gold is now up 47 percent from 4-22-2024.
Just like all the funds and money that poured into the magnificent 7 stocks over the past 2 years, the gold price imo has been artificially propelled up and it will eventually have a big pull back. Same with the current cattle markets- lots of big money being made that will eventually have a big return to earth. Currently at all time highs while grains and oil/ gas are in the tank.

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I think the bolded part is too simplistic. CB purchasing and retail buyers seeking safety are two primary factors propelling the price of gold (you can probably add paper purchases to that cohort). Very different circumstances from all the free fiat pouring into stocks from 2021-24 that pumped the Mag 7. You also have the albatross hanging around out there that is the Debt Anchor of $37T and rising.

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TTUArmy said:

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Silver looks like it caught a little tailwind. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow.

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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TTUArmy said:

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Ranyaw19 said:

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Thanks for sharing - Fantastic article - Absolutely amazing to me that the ratio of paper Slv is 378 to 1 of phys. I don't understand how this has been going on for so long. Thanks again!

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It's absolutely criminal...isn't it? Silver is the common man's money; while gold could be thought of as a nobleman's money. I submit that silver is manipulated because central banks don't want the common man to have a means to transact in honest money...ever again. The fact that silver is not on the critical mineral list says a great deal; especially considering the ratio it is pulled out of the ground relative to gold. Industrialization is doing its part to destroy silver. At some point, silver recycling will become big business.

In fact, I believe the COMEX and LBMA were created by central banks to destroy silver. They want us hooked on fiat like a bunch of drug-addled coke sniffers; chasing an ever depreciating dollar which they tightly control. Watching the guys on the stock market board...God love them all...chase fiat gains, desperately trying to stay in front of inflation and glaring at charts to try to find that perfect setup, is exhausting to say the least. Nothing against the guys over there. I appreciate and respect their work ethic. They're working within the system. I've been there and I don't have the stamina to do it day in and day out.

My angle is simple. I buy gold and silver because fiat has a life span. That is an indisputable, historical fact. The dollar may outlive me and it may not. I have a small DCA in precious metals which is outside the system. I have other investments inside the system which, like social security, I might never see. Planning for worst case scenario is always a mixed bag. Make it small...but make it count.

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The fiat lifespan can outlive you. Making all of your decisions on fiat eventually blowing up is not a wise decision, even if it has become more likely within our lifetime.

There are times when equities outperform metals and times when metals shine. The last couple of years it has been better to just hold metals than stocks. Of course, some stocks outperform. But on the aggregate, metals are ahead right now. I expect that to continue through this year and perhaps next. But I will absolutely roll out of metals and into stocks when the time presents.

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Ranyaw19 said:

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If you don't mind my asking, would you roll out of both your phys and finc holdings, or just the paper?

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Physical is not bought with speculative funds. I can't remember if I've explained it on this thread or stock market. But my personal advice to people trying to protect their wealth while also not missing out on growing their wealth is to deploy discretionary investible funds into buckets. Allocations can be flexible, but you get the general picture. In general, this is for people that dont consider themselves trades, solid investors, or good at picking winners and losers. This is for people who dont want to deal with the headache of trying to beat the market and just want to allocate safely and effectively. This strategy also doesn't care that tech stocks have been dominating lately, just like it wouldnt have cared when small caps were lifting off. It is virtually timeless.

5% - Money market - Money flows here first - 99% of the time this is safe, and allows you to build a cushion. This bucket can also be tipped over into other buckets should it become significant in size.

10% - Physical gold - This is sunk funds. It's a pure lifelong hedge. Plan to use it when the world breaks down, or hand it to down when you die. Money in this bucket can also be accumulated to afford safes and accesorries having to do with owning physical.

25% - Treasuries of various durations - This is reliable low-growth. No matter what the current value is, as long as you hold to expiration, you get your money back and make income along the way.

20% - Income producing holdings (Dividend stocks, REITS, etc) - This is slightly more speculative and riskier than treasuries, but with a long enough horizon, should be a constant stream of income into perpetuity and relatively safe for your principal. Often, even if the principal is lower in the future, the income has paid for it and more. A stock like ET would fit here well.

15% - Long term speculative/risk assets (value stocks) - More risky, and might require buying when presented a value and selling when overvalued. This can achieve higher returns but can also lead to some drawdowns. I used to include BTC in the gold section but have moved to putting it here if on a long enough hold horizon. Until it sustains a major correction and doesn't merely do what the Nasdaq does, I can't consider it safe.

10% - Speculative metals (whether physical or paper) - This is the metals I trade. GLD, SLV, COPX, miners, options, futures, etc. These should be traded and profit taken. MEtals go through major booms and busts. Sometimes on yearly timeframes and sometimes decades. But they drawdowns can be massive. This bucket's aim should be to accumulate profit, so get out of profitable positions and wait for the next setup.

10% - Highly speculative (growth stocks) - Dont have to explain. Same explanation as above. I dont consider growth stocks long term holds. They dont pay you and can and will selloff faster than they went up, even if it takes years before they do.

5% - Play money (high risk) - This is YOLO. Buy that ****ty stock. Grab some lotto options. But memecoins. Sports betting. Whatever you want. But dont expect profit. This money should be considered sunk. Any profits from this should flow into the above buckets with only the last 5% going back into this bucket.

Now one caveat is that I see strong potential for a crash in the treasury market sometime within the next decade. And I can't possibly predict if American paper might or might not fully default in the future. So this that bucket has grown riskier in my eyes. I would not be doing beyond 5yr durations right now.

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exp said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Ranyaw19 said:

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If you don't mind my asking, would you roll out of both your phys and finc holdings, or just the paper?

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Physical is not bought with speculative funds. I can't remember if I've explained it on this thread or stock market. But my personal advice to people trying to protect their wealth while also not missing out on growing their wealth is to deploy discretionary investible funds into buckets. Allocations can be flexible, but you get the general picture. In general, this is for people that dont consider themselves trades, solid investors, or good at picking winners and losers. This is for people who dont want to deal with the headache of trying to beat the market and just want to allocate safely and effectively. This strategy also doesn't care that tech stocks have been dominating lately, just like it wouldnt have cared when small caps were lifting off. It is virtually timeless.

5% - Money market - Money flows here first - 99% of the time this is safe, and allows you to build a cushion. This bucket can also be tipped over into other buckets should it become significant in size.

10% - Physical gold - This is sunk funds. It's a pure lifelong hedge. Plan to use it when the world breaks down, or hand it to down when you die. Money in this bucket can also be accumulated to afford safes and accesorries having to do with owning physical.

25% - Treasuries of various durations - This is reliable low-growth. No matter what the current value is, as long as you hold to expiration, you get your money back and make income along the way.

20% - Income producing holdings (Dividend stocks, REITS, etc) - This is slightly more speculative and riskier than treasuries, but with a long enough horizon, should be a constant stream of income into perpetuity and relatively safe for your principal. Often, even if the principal is lower in the future, the income has paid for it and more. A stock like ET would fit here well.

15% - Long term speculative/risk assets (value stocks) - More risky, and might require buying when presented a value and selling when overvalued. This can achieve higher returns but can also lead to some drawdowns. I used to include BTC in the gold section but have moved to putting it here if on a long enough hold horizon. Until it sustains a major correction and doesn't merely do what the Nasdaq does, I can't consider it safe.

10% - Speculative metals (whether physical or paper) - This is the metals I trade. GLD, SLV, COPX, miners, options, futures, etc. These should be traded and profit taken. MEtals go through major booms and busts. Sometimes on yearly timeframes and sometimes decades. But they drawdowns can be massive. This bucket's aim should be to accumulate profit, so get out of profitable positions and wait for the next setup.

10% - Highly speculative (growth stocks) - Dont have to explain. Same explanation as above. I dont consider growth stocks long term holds. They dont pay you and can and will selloff faster than they went up, even if it takes years before they do.

5% - Play money (high risk) - This is YOLO. Buy that ****ty stock. Grab some lotto options. But memecoins. Sports betting. Whatever you want. But dont expect profit. This money should be considered sunk. Any profits from this should flow into the above buckets with only the last 5% going back into this bucket.

Now one caveat is that I see strong potential for a crash in the treasury market sometime within the next decade. And I can't possibly predict if American paper might or might not fully default in the future. So this that bucket has grown riskier in my eyes. I would not be doing beyond 5yr durations right now.

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Treasuries are not reliable low-growth. They are guaranteed slow deterioration. You mentioned "value" of this asset without fully comprehending the underlying, hidden devaluation of the money itself. Don't be a naive govt cluck.

Speculative metals are a waste. Owning physical gold or even paper gold...ok.

Any well considered portfolio at this stage of the fiat ponzi would be at least 50% hard assets. You have zero allocation to Bitcoin in your notes above. I'd squeeze in at least a 20% allocation to Bitcoin in self-custody with no counterparty or dilution risk.

Otherwise it's a fine normie portfolio.

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redsquirrelAG said:

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Would anyone like a monster box of ASEs at .50 over spot? 17K? I have 2.

Pm if serious. Cash or wire transfer if necessary.

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MRB10 said:

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I could be wrong but I think he was referring to slow devaluation in real terms after accounting for inflation/monetary debasement.

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Quantarius said:

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I was told the market for historical gold coins is soft currentlyno premium for old civil war era coins-just spot price really. Is this accurate? Does that market tend to come back around where a premium is paid for rare coins?

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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MRB10 said:

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I could be wrong but I think he was referring to slow devaluation in real terms after accounting for inflation/monetary debasement.

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That's fine and reasonable. And in the low interest rate environment of the last decade, definitely an issue. But treasuries are paying more than the multi-year avg inflation rate right now. And that bucket was never designed to grow significantly. That was one layer above the safety bucket. There are other buckets for growth.

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redsquirrelAG said:

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Would anyone like a monster box of ASEs at .50 over spot? 17K? I have 2.

Pm if serious. Cash or wire transfer if necessary.

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Mas89 said:

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Quantarius said:

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I was told the market for historical gold coins is soft currentlyno premium for old civil war era coins-just spot price really. Is this accurate? Does that market tend to come back around where a premium is paid for rare coins?

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There are so many counterfeit and fake coins today, graded and ungraded, that only an expert can tell the difference. I once bought three coins at a long- established local coin shop that I thought could be more valuable if they graded high enough. I sent them off to a grading service and 2 of the three were fakes- a rare trade dollar, and a 3 dollar gold coin which was from a year with very limited coins produced. Luckily, the shop owner refunded my purchase amount. He had purchased a big collection from an estate was the story I got.

The coins both looked completely real to me. That was the last rare coin purchase for me.

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aggiebrad16 said:

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Wow. 8 edits to a comment. I'd love to see what you originally said. Probably something scandalous

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