Anyone care to speculate on the 39% Swiss gold tariffs?

Huge discrepancy between gold futures and spot gold right now. Someone getting squeezed?

Tariff news I think

Fitch said:

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Anyone care to speculate on the 39% Swiss gold tariffs?

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Kilo gold bars are going to have one helluva premium attached to them.

Swiss Gold Tariff

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Tariff news I think

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For sure. But my point is that spot gold isn't moving so far. Only paper gold.

Futures vs spot

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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Tariff news I think

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For sure. But my point is that spot gold isn't moving so far. Only paper gold.

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With all of the gold re-valuation talk and this tariff, it starts to smell like Trump is trying put an end to the precious metals paper markets. Wouldn't that be glorious?

Good luck delivering gold in the COMEX or LBMA if you're short and the buyer is standing for delivery.

If this happens to enough contracts they'll change the rules to cash settlement and the COMEX / LBMA will be toast. And then gold shall truly run

Buy the rumor, sell the news

Quote:

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The Trump administration suggested it would issue a new policy clarifying that imports of gold bars should not face tariffs, after the US government stunned traders by ruling that they would be subject to duties.

The White House intends to post an executive order in the near future to clarify what an official called misinformation about the tariffing of gold and other specialty products. The official detailed the plans Friday on condition of anonymity.

Spot gold and futures prices on New York's Comex fell after the White House statement.

Industry figures had previously understood that bars would be exempt from President Donald Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs, including a 39% on goods from Switzerland, a major exporter of the precious metal. But when a Swiss gold refiner asked about it, US Customs and Border Protection ruled that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars are subject to the levies, according to an agency letter.

The order could calm a market that was rocked by the prospect of a tariff on gold imports.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-08/white-house-to-clarify-misinformation-on-gold-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas

It's been quiet. Usually a good time to buy

jagvocate said:

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It's been quiet. Usually a good time to buy

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Silver seems to be moving up on it's own.

Silver to gold ratio
87:1

Some people have asked me over the years how I know the metals bull will be ending. Here's my cheat sheet.



White & gray is monthly candlestick of gold to silver ratio. Pink is monthly silver.

Generational price explosions tend to happen fast, after years... sometimes decades of buildup. And the final move in the metals bull will end with a silver blowoff top. This is because as price for all metals rises, gold becomes "unaffordable" to the masses. It's considered risky purely because of the strength of the bull and the high price compared to years prior. Silver on the other hand, despite participating in similar gains usually outperforming equities, is still considered "cheap". It feels more approachable... like you can get your hands on more of it. More bang for buck. The final move in the bull is when hedge funds, financial advisors, and general retail finally pile in. And while they will buy some gold, they will overwhelmingly flock heavier into silver, causing a euphoria move that leads to significant silver outperformance to gold.

Notice that in each prior metals bull top, the silver to gold ratio fell dramatically following silver completing a cup pattern and breaking out over a significant previous high. That breakout is when you know the game is on. In prior instances, you had 10 months and 14 months before the top and DRAMATIC sudden reversal.

Getting in for the breakout can be profitable. I will move most of my sidelined chips in one that happens with a stop on them should it be a fake out. But the real money is from the buildup and accumulation. If you are like me, you already have significant holdings. You have already been outperforming the S&P for the last two years with your money invested in gold and silver.

You need this breakout to happen to truly win. But you need to know when to exit. Being early is ok. The top is hard to know. Could come early. Come could late. Could come higher than expected. Could come lower than expected. Because the end is when the theater catches fire and the only escape is..

And for those asking.. the big metals bulls usually end AFTER the equities bears have already done their damage. But I only have data for the last 50 years that I can go on. That's because before the 70's we actually operated on a gold standard. Gold held it's value mostly. Silver moved around it a bit. Equities would get stretched and be forced back when fiat got too loose. Until we left the gold standard. So we can't even look to times like 1929 to try and discern clues for what could happen. It's not relevant from a metals vs equities perspective.

Thank you Heineken-Ashi--selling is such an important part of the investing cycle yet we as humans tend to focus 90 percent on buying and when to buy

To me the most important part is this: have a plan for distributing your assets and follow it

Using the gold/silver ratio is a very available and objective data set upon which to build a plan

Here's another one that I've seen others use ... silver/copper ... personally haven't used it yet but keep it in my "things to keep an eye on" (stock charts link below)

https://schrts.co/UuVWVpre

jagvocate said:

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Thank you Heineken-Ashi--selling is such an important part of the investing cycle yet we as humans tend to focus 90 percent on buying and when to buy

To me the most important part is this: have a plan for distributing your assets and follow it

Using the gold/silver ratio is a very available and objective data set upon which to build a plan

Here's another one that I've seen others use ... silver/copper ... personally haven't used it yet but keep it in my "things to keep an eye on" (stock charts link below)

https://schrts.co/UuVWVpre

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Silver and copper run a lot closer together, since silver is a large byproduct of copper mining. 70-80% of silver production comes from the mining of other metals.

I also cant find an easily chart source for copper that goes back beyond 2000.

White & Gray is silver/copper ratio and pink is silver.

The next time silver crosses the downward trendlines should lead to the next expansion zone over $40.

I post the SPX/Gold chart and the Ag/Au chart above to keep two questions in our mind over the next 5-10 years:

1. Gold over the S&P 500?

2. Silver over Gold?

I believe the "Yes" answer for #1 is clearer. But I like silver and gold both (with a bias in favor of silver due to affordability) and will be very pleased with a "Yes" answer to #2

Have a great week TexAgs stackers

Did the US Secretary of the Interior just put silver on the critical minerals list?

draft list for potential approval

Collectible category and not gold/ silver.
usmint.gov has the proof version of the American Innovation 2025 coins available Thur 8/28 at 11 am. 2 limit/ household. 62,000 product limit. The individual coins sold out quick earlier.
2/4 coins feature the space shuttle and an astronaut doing a space walk so I imagine they will sell out soon and appreciate above the $27.50 price. Cool coins a little bigger than a quarter and good kid gifts.

Mas89 said:

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Collectible category and not gold/ silver.
usmint.gov has the proof version of the American Innovation 2025 coins available Thur 8/28 at 11 am. 2 limit/ household. 62,000 product limit. The individual coins sold out quick earlier.
2/4 coins feature the space shuttle and an astronaut doing a space walk so I imagine they will sell out soon and appreciate above the $27.50 price. Cool coins a little bigger than a quarter and good kid gifts.

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I tried to pickup a 1oz gold Sunflower w/Bee the other day and damn they sold fast.

Silver trying real hard to break $40.

TTUArmy said:

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Did the US Secretary of the Interior just put silver on the critical minerals list?

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I would think this would create a price ceiling for silver...or at least limit upward potential.

You'd be calling it an industrial metal same as copper and no longer treating it in the same family as gold for store of value category.

H-A will be along soon to sell the rest of his SLV paper to keep it below $40 going into the weekend.

Sims said:

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TTUArmy said:

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Did the US Secretary of the Interior just put silver on the critical minerals list?

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I would think this would create a price ceiling for silver...or at least limit upward potential.

You'd be calling it an industrial metal same as copper and no longer treating it in the same family as gold for store of value category.

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I suppose it could go that way. I don't really know. I see the move as probably clawing back the red tape and eco bureaucracy to mine in areas which may have been previously restricted. What it does to price is anyone's guess.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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TTUArmy said:

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H-A will be along soon to sell the rest of his SLV paper to keep it below $40 going into the weekend.

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I did sell a bunch of expiring calls today for some big gains. If it can dip back to $35 I will back up the truck. I've outperformed the market for a couple years by playing silver. And we still haven't had the big move yet.

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As someone who hates the paper precious metals markets, I hope you never see $35 dollar silver again. But, as they say..."Don't hate the player...hate the game".

Heineken-Ashi said:

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The next time silver crosses the downward trendlines should lead to the next expansion zone over $40.

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Hey H-A...can you grab us a new chart and projection for silver? I don't think we saw silver hit the downward trendline. Thanks man.