$65 looks to be serious resistance.
Obviously, the move lower I was looking for never came. So I'm sidelined in the trading accounts mostly. Significantly above $65 and I'll be convinced we are blowing off the top.
Months ago (maybe a long) I mentioned how the gold/silver ratio chart breaking below $40 would tell me silver is close to topping. It's at 67.5 right now and falling. It might not get to that 40 level. That level mostly lined up with the 2011 fractal as a signal that the bull end was imminent. But I've got a cluster of targets in the low 50's. The blue one is measuring the 2020-2022 fall in the ratio chart and looking for 100% the size of that move from the April 2025 top in the ratio chart. The red one is a 61.8% retracement of the move up in the ratio chart from 2011-2020.
That 2011-2020 move was preceded and followed by the only two similar parabolic moves in the last quarter century as we are seeing right now in silver. In 2011, that crash signaled the beginning of an equities bull market, and the end of the recession. It was essentially "risk back on", and safe haven assets sold. From 2020 to late 2022, the market was actually going parabolic while silver was in a bear. That silver bear finished after the equities bear joined it in 2022.
Here we are now with silver going parabolic, a year after gold went parabolic, while both have been in structural bull markets since 2022. Yet equities are going up as well. So this time, silver is doing what it does leading into or during an equities bearish period, yet equities are bullish. This is concerning to me, as even in the parabolic metals rise of the 70's, the market was mostly selling in between periods of minor strength. It's concerning because there is simply no historical time where what's happening now has happened. That kind of makes sense, considering there hasn't been a time of such structural sovereign debt issues coupled with parabolic money supply growth across the world.
My current thesis (subject change if silver stretches significantly beyond $65, is that we are likely to see what feels like a crash in silver soon, possibly back into the $30's or $40's, that likely lines up with a significant risk off period for equities. Like 1974 and 2008, I see silver catching support and then engaging another massive rally in the coming years, likely aligning with a large equity selloff. If silver were to go straight up to.. say $80, I would start to consider that the end is near.
As it is now, you can buy a barrel of crude oil with a troy ounce of silver. Historically speaking, this is rare, and usually preceds a pretty large fall in the silver/brent ratio. But the late 1970's says this can move higher. Of course, that can happen with silver rising and brent falling, both rising with silver rising faster, or brent falling and silver going sideways or falling less.
