YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

halfastros81 said:

---

This . Keep emotions out of it as much as possible and bet on businesses to increase value to their shareholders over the long haul.

---

There is so much built in incentive for the markets to continue upward. Fund managers MUST beat the indexes to keep their clients happy and maintain their bonuses. Money goes in every week/month into 401ks and pensions they get invested.

There's almost no way to time the markets even for the huge fund managers.

one example…Does anyone think the world can function without technology? Does anyone think there won't be new technology developed every year and suddenly necessary for every human and business on earth to remain competitive? Good luck betting against that.

Many indexes automatically rebalance to the top 100 or 500 top performers and market cap leaders every year. It's a built in system to maintain upward momentum and eliminate losing companies.

---

While true, this completely discounts external macro forces. Personally, I've never left the market since I started working 30 years ago so I'm a believer in time in the market vs timing the market. However, we can no longer just write off the unprecedented macro forces we are experiencing and about to experience.

Everyone on here has grown up in the Golden Age of post WWII Bretton Woods and just assumes nothing will ever change. That is supreme hubris. Our debt has skyrocketed to levels never before seen since 2008 and the math to address that (paying debt interest) is now our #3 most expensive line item. And it's only going to get worse. We've never had this situation before.

Now couple that with a retreat from global markets and supply chains to more regional models and you have massive change happening...right now. I still haven't left the market but have starting de-risking. I'm trying to hedge my bets as best as I can without wholesale leaving the market. I can understand why some people do that considering the reality right in front of us.

---

I'm going to guess I'm a little older than you but they've been talking about the debt since Ross Perot ran for potus in '92. And here we are…

I think derisking makes some sense but if you're honestly worried about the US defaulting on its debts, there's not a single place in the world that's safe and that includes gold.

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

halfastros81 said:

---

This . Keep emotions out of it as much as possible and bet on businesses to increase value to their shareholders over the long haul.

---

There is so much built in incentive for the markets to continue upward. Fund managers MUST beat the indexes to keep their clients happy and maintain their bonuses. Money goes in every week/month into 401ks and pensions they get invested.

There's almost no way to time the markets even for the huge fund managers.

one example…Does anyone think the world can function without technology? Does anyone think there won't be new technology developed every year and suddenly necessary for every human and business on earth to remain competitive? Good luck betting against that.

Many indexes automatically rebalance to the top 100 or 500 top performers and market cap leaders every year. It's a built in system to maintain upward momentum and eliminate losing companies.

---

While true, this completely discounts external macro forces. Personally, I've never left the market since I started working 30 years ago so I'm a believer in time in the market vs timing the market. However, we can no longer just write off the unprecedented macro forces we are experiencing and about to experience.

Everyone on here has grown up in the Golden Age of post WWII Bretton Woods and just assumes nothing will ever change. That is supreme hubris. Our debt has skyrocketed to levels never before seen since 2008 and the math to address that (paying debt interest) is now our #3 most expensive line item. And it's only going to get worse. We've never had this situation before.

Now couple that with a retreat from global markets and supply chains to more regional models and you have massive change happening...right now. I still haven't left the market but have starting de-risking. I'm trying to hedge my bets as best as I can without wholesale leaving the market. I can understand why some people do that considering the reality right in front of us.

---

I'm going to guess I'm a little older than you but they've been talking about the debt since Ross Perot ran for potus in '92. And here we are…

I think derisking makes some sense but if you're honestly worried about the US defaulting on its debts, there's not a single place in the world that's safe and that includes gold.

---

I'm 51 so I'm not super young. And talking about the debt in 1992 as if it's remotely comparable to 2025 is idiotic to put it politely. You might as well compare computers with vacuum tubes to computers driven with quantum mechanics.

It was brought up then because we could do something about it if more than 5 people had had the discipline and foresight to think ahead and simply run the numbers. The debt in 1992 was still somewhat manageable because....math. This constant refrain on here that "we've always complained about the debt and we are fine" belies the fact that the underlying fundamentals are not remotely the same any more.

Why do you think we only ever move rates by a quarter to half point now? It's because we can absorb very little change to interest payments because....math. Interest rate moves these days are a charade. It's simply psychological maneuvering to calm the populace.

In 1980 Volcker raised rates to 20%. Why do you think that is? It's because in 1980 our total debt was "only" $1T. Try applying rates anywhere near that number on $37T in debt and see what happens. At current levels, our debt interest, right now, is the #3 line item on annual spend. Now go jack around with that with rates that aren't at current levels and see what happens.

This parroting of "we've always been worried about the debt" ignores history, reality, and math. So, your age is irrelevant if you don't understand these three things.

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

halfastros81 said:

---

This . Keep emotions out of it as much as possible and bet on businesses to increase value to their shareholders over the long haul.

---

There is so much built in incentive for the markets to continue upward. Fund managers MUST beat the indexes to keep their clients happy and maintain their bonuses. Money goes in every week/month into 401ks and pensions they get invested.

There's almost no way to time the markets even for the huge fund managers.

one example…Does anyone think the world can function without technology? Does anyone think there won't be new technology developed every year and suddenly necessary for every human and business on earth to remain competitive? Good luck betting against that.

Many indexes automatically rebalance to the top 100 or 500 top performers and market cap leaders every year. It's a built in system to maintain upward momentum and eliminate losing companies.

---

While true, this completely discounts external macro forces. Personally, I've never left the market since I started working 30 years ago so I'm a believer in time in the market vs timing the market. However, we can no longer just write off the unprecedented macro forces we are experiencing and about to experience.

Everyone on here has grown up in the Golden Age of post WWII Bretton Woods and just assumes nothing will ever change. That is supreme hubris. Our debt has skyrocketed to levels never before seen since 2008 and the math to address that (paying debt interest) is now our #3 most expensive line item. And it's only going to get worse. We've never had this situation before.

Now couple that with a retreat from global markets and supply chains to more regional models and you have massive change happening...right now. I still haven't left the market but have starting de-risking. I'm trying to hedge my bets as best as I can without wholesale leaving the market. I can understand why some people do that considering the reality right in front of us.

---

I'm going to guess I'm a little older than you but they've been talking about the debt since Ross Perot ran for potus in '92. And here we are…

I think derisking makes some sense but if you're honestly worried about the US defaulting on its debts, there's not a single place in the world that's safe and that includes gold.

---

I'm 51 so I'm not super young. And talking about the debt in 1992 as if it's remotely comparable to 2025 is idiotic to put it politely. You might as well compare computers with vacuum tubes to computers driven with quantum mechanics.

It was brought up then because we could do something about it if more than 5 people had had the discipline and foresight to think ahead and simply run the numbers. The debt in 1992 was still somewhat manageable because....math. This constant refrain on here that "we've always complained about the debt and we are fine" belies the fact that the underlying fundamentals are not remotely the same any more.

Why do you think we only ever move rates by a quarter to half point now? It's because we can absorb very little change to interest payments because....math. Interest rate moves these days are a charade. It's simply psychological maneuvering to calm the populace.

In 1980 Volcker raised rates to 20%. Why do you think that is? It's because in 1980 our total debt was "only" $1T. Try applying rates anywhere near that number on $37T in debt and see what happens. At current levels, our debt interest, right now, is the #3 line item on annual spend. Now go jack around with that with rates that aren't at current levels and see what happens.

This parroting of "we've always been worried about the debt" ignores history, reality, and math. So, your age is irrelevant if you don't understand these three things.

---

Did you ever read Ross Perot's book? In 1992, the interest on the national debt required every dollar of tax paid by everyone east of the Mississippi just to service it. Does that sound like "nothing" to you?

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

halfastros81 said:

---

This . Keep emotions out of it as much as possible and bet on businesses to increase value to their shareholders over the long haul.

---

There is so much built in incentive for the markets to continue upward. Fund managers MUST beat the indexes to keep their clients happy and maintain their bonuses. Money goes in every week/month into 401ks and pensions they get invested.

There's almost no way to time the markets even for the huge fund managers.

one example…Does anyone think the world can function without technology? Does anyone think there won't be new technology developed every year and suddenly necessary for every human and business on earth to remain competitive? Good luck betting against that.

Many indexes automatically rebalance to the top 100 or 500 top performers and market cap leaders every year. It's a built in system to maintain upward momentum and eliminate losing companies.

---

While true, this completely discounts external macro forces. Personally, I've never left the market since I started working 30 years ago so I'm a believer in time in the market vs timing the market. However, we can no longer just write off the unprecedented macro forces we are experiencing and about to experience.

Everyone on here has grown up in the Golden Age of post WWII Bretton Woods and just assumes nothing will ever change. That is supreme hubris. Our debt has skyrocketed to levels never before seen since 2008 and the math to address that (paying debt interest) is now our #3 most expensive line item. And it's only going to get worse. We've never had this situation before.

Now couple that with a retreat from global markets and supply chains to more regional models and you have massive change happening...right now. I still haven't left the market but have starting de-risking. I'm trying to hedge my bets as best as I can without wholesale leaving the market. I can understand why some people do that considering the reality right in front of us.

---

I'm going to guess I'm a little older than you but they've been talking about the debt since Ross Perot ran for potus in '92. And here we are…

I think derisking makes some sense but if you're honestly worried about the US defaulting on its debts, there's not a single place in the world that's safe and that includes gold.

---

I'm 51 so I'm not super young. And talking about the debt in 1992 as if it's remotely comparable to 2025 is idiotic to put it politely. You might as well compare computers with vacuum tubes to computers driven with quantum mechanics.

It was brought up then because we could do something about it if more than 5 people had had the discipline and foresight to think ahead and simply run the numbers. The debt in 1992 was still somewhat manageable because....math. This constant refrain on here that "we've always complained about the debt and we are fine" belies the fact that the underlying fundamentals are not remotely the same any more.

Why do you think we only ever move rates by a quarter to half point now? It's because we can absorb very little change to interest payments because....math. Interest rate moves these days are a charade. It's simply psychological maneuvering to calm the populace.

In 1980 Volcker raised rates to 20%. Why do you think that is? It's because in 1980 our total debt was "only" $1T. Try applying rates anywhere near that number on $37T in debt and see what happens. At current levels, our debt interest, right now, is the #3 line item on annual spend. Now go jack around with that with rates that aren't at current levels and see what happens.

This parroting of "we've always been worried about the debt" ignores history, reality, and math. So, your age is irrelevant if you don't understand these three things.

---

I'd like to add that I don't give a krap what happens to you and the national debt.

Quote:

---

Biggest loser is 21.89%.

---

Sounds like quite the loser.

I wish good fortune for you timing the market.

I think we go down at least 15% or more from here. This economy is built on smoke and mirriors

What is your definition of "substantially less"?


10-20 % correction is normal in the market but since fear is stronger than greed the reversion is what people always focus on.

It took the banking system almost failing to get 50% and even then bears could not hold the compressing spring down for long.


One could not rule out a 4700/800 spx touch but bears have to get past 11% and 20% first.

Quote:

---

As I said a page back, I don't play for the daily surges and drops. But I can open my eyes and see that every policy of this government hammers the market.

---

…until it doesn't. When Trump announces new trade deals with the EU, Canada and Mexico, and the Asian countries minus China, we may bounce back to business as usual.

I am not saying you will miss out on anything - maybe you will look like a genius when it's all done. But you're just completely guessing like the rest of us. There are at least a hundred stocks you could have invested in the past month and done waaaaaay better than the low gain you've been booking. I tried your same strategy of sitting out of the market almost 2 years ago when I had the means to buy in significantly and that hesitation cost me many thousands of dollars. Like you, I had a very negative view of the economy and market at the time and saw headwinds that I thought couldn't lead to anything but a big fall that never materialized as I watched everyone else book some incredible gains.

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

halfastros81 said:

---

This . Keep emotions out of it as much as possible and bet on businesses to increase value to their shareholders over the long haul.

---

There is so much built in incentive for the markets to continue upward. Fund managers MUST beat the indexes to keep their clients happy and maintain their bonuses. Money goes in every week/month into 401ks and pensions they get invested.

There's almost no way to time the markets even for the huge fund managers.

one example…Does anyone think the world can function without technology? Does anyone think there won't be new technology developed every year and suddenly necessary for every human and business on earth to remain competitive? Good luck betting against that.

Many indexes automatically rebalance to the top 100 or 500 top performers and market cap leaders every year. It's a built in system to maintain upward momentum and eliminate losing companies.

---

While true, this completely discounts external macro forces. Personally, I've never left the market since I started working 30 years ago so I'm a believer in time in the market vs timing the market. However, we can no longer just write off the unprecedented macro forces we are experiencing and about to experience.

Everyone on here has grown up in the Golden Age of post WWII Bretton Woods and just assumes nothing will ever change. That is supreme hubris. Our debt has skyrocketed to levels never before seen since 2008 and the math to address that (paying debt interest) is now our #3 most expensive line item. And it's only going to get worse. We've never had this situation before.

Now couple that with a retreat from global markets and supply chains to more regional models and you have massive change happening...right now. I still haven't left the market but have starting de-risking. I'm trying to hedge my bets as best as I can without wholesale leaving the market. I can understand why some people do that considering the reality right in front of us.

---

I'm going to guess I'm a little older than you but they've been talking about the debt since Ross Perot ran for potus in '92. And here we are…

I think derisking makes some sense but if you're honestly worried about the US defaulting on its debts, there's not a single place in the world that's safe and that includes gold.

---

I'm 51 so I'm not super young. And talking about the debt in 1992 as if it's remotely comparable to 2025 is idiotic to put it politely. You might as well compare computers with vacuum tubes to computers driven with quantum mechanics.

It was brought up then because we could do something about it if more than 5 people had had the discipline and foresight to think ahead and simply run the numbers. The debt in 1992 was still somewhat manageable because....math. This constant refrain on here that "we've always complained about the debt and we are fine" belies the fact that the underlying fundamentals are not remotely the same any more.

Why do you think we only ever move rates by a quarter to half point now? It's because we can absorb very little change to interest payments because....math. Interest rate moves these days are a charade. It's simply psychological maneuvering to calm the populace.

In 1980 Volcker raised rates to 20%. Why do you think that is? It's because in 1980 our total debt was "only" $1T. Try applying rates anywhere near that number on $37T in debt and see what happens. At current levels, our debt interest, right now, is the #3 line item on annual spend. Now go jack around with that with rates that aren't at current levels and see what happens.

This parroting of "we've always been worried about the debt" ignores history, reality, and math. So, your age is irrelevant if you don't understand these three things.

---

I'd like to add that I don't give a krap what happens to you and the national debt.

---

Ok?

---

lol. What a strange and petty post by newbie11. Intentional misspelling of crap also funny

Time to DCA some more cash into the market!

Petrino1 said:

---

I read this online somewhere, and thought it was pretty interesting.

Missing a few days in market can cost you everything

One of the strangest things about the stock market is how unevenly returns are distributed. The long-term trend might look steady on a chart, but almost all the actual gains happen in short, unpredictable bursts. Miss those bursts, and you miss everything.

Based on a study by JP Morgan, if you had simply stayed invested in the S&P500 from 2003 to 2022, a $10,000 sum would have grown to around $65,000. But if you missed just the 10 best days over that 20-year period, your return would have dropped by more than half. Miss 20 of the best days, and you'd end up with just $18,000. Miss 40 and you'd have less than you started with. All your gains came in just 40 out of 5000+ trading days! These numbers are extreme, but they're not outliersthey repeat across every time period you look at.

What makes it harder is that the biggest up days usually come when things feel the worst. March 24, 2020, when COVID panic was at its peak, the market jumped 9.4% in one day. Dec 26 2018, following a significant downturn, the S&P500 posted a then-record increase of \~5%, one of the highest single day gain in the decade.

Crashes are common. So are recoveries. But there are only few days that truly drive your wealth. And if you're not in market on those days, you lose the upside entirely.

---

and as Kenneth Fisher says in simpler terms, 'time in the market beats timing the market'

knoxtom said:

---

One month in since I sold every stock and fund (except the 401k).

Holding nothing but a few bitcoins and cash right now in my regular account. I haven't touched the 401k

Average decline of the stocks I sold is right around 10% for the last month. Biggest loser is 21.89%.

Making 4.5% on cash in my account so overall I almost broke even in the last month. I lost some on bitcoin. By my rudimentary calculations had I kept my money in the stocks and funds I would have lost 10ish% and I would have not made the 4.5%, so I would be 14-15% lower * the % of the portfolio held in stocks and funds.

I still think there is another 20-30% drop coming before I start buying back in, maybe more. I do not have a specific target, just watching the policies and their affect on the country.

---

What vehicle did you use to make 4.5% on your cash in ~1 month? That is roughly equivalent (slightly higher even) to what I am making in a HYSA over a full year, where I am only making <0.4% per month.

Thanks!

He's not. He forgot to divide by 12, but as of today it was still a good move for him. He's probably sleeping better at night than most investors right now.

amateur gene ecologist said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

halfastros81 said:

---

This . Keep emotions out of it as much as possible and bet on businesses to increase value to their shareholders over the long haul.

---

There is so much built in incentive for the markets to continue upward. Fund managers MUST beat the indexes to keep their clients happy and maintain their bonuses. Money goes in every week/month into 401ks and pensions they get invested.

There's almost no way to time the markets even for the huge fund managers.

one example…Does anyone think the world can function without technology? Does anyone think there won't be new technology developed every year and suddenly necessary for every human and business on earth to remain competitive? Good luck betting against that.

Many indexes automatically rebalance to the top 100 or 500 top performers and market cap leaders every year. It's a built in system to maintain upward momentum and eliminate losing companies.

---

While true, this completely discounts external macro forces. Personally, I've never left the market since I started working 30 years ago so I'm a believer in time in the market vs timing the market. However, we can no longer just write off the unprecedented macro forces we are experiencing and about to experience.

Everyone on here has grown up in the Golden Age of post WWII Bretton Woods and just assumes nothing will ever change. That is supreme hubris. Our debt has skyrocketed to levels never before seen since 2008 and the math to address that (paying debt interest) is now our #3 most expensive line item. And it's only going to get worse. We've never had this situation before.

Now couple that with a retreat from global markets and supply chains to more regional models and you have massive change happening...right now. I still haven't left the market but have starting de-risking. I'm trying to hedge my bets as best as I can without wholesale leaving the market. I can understand why some people do that considering the reality right in front of us.

---

I'm going to guess I'm a little older than you but they've been talking about the debt since Ross Perot ran for potus in '92. And here we are…

I think derisking makes some sense but if you're honestly worried about the US defaulting on its debts, there's not a single place in the world that's safe and that includes gold.

---

I'm 51 so I'm not super young. And talking about the debt in 1992 as if it's remotely comparable to 2025 is idiotic to put it politely. You might as well compare computers with vacuum tubes to computers driven with quantum mechanics.

It was brought up then because we could do something about it if more than 5 people had had the discipline and foresight to think ahead and simply run the numbers. The debt in 1992 was still somewhat manageable because....math. This constant refrain on here that "we've always complained about the debt and we are fine" belies the fact that the underlying fundamentals are not remotely the same any more.

Why do you think we only ever move rates by a quarter to half point now? It's because we can absorb very little change to interest payments because....math. Interest rate moves these days are a charade. It's simply psychological maneuvering to calm the populace.

In 1980 Volcker raised rates to 20%. Why do you think that is? It's because in 1980 our total debt was "only" $1T. Try applying rates anywhere near that number on $37T in debt and see what happens. At current levels, our debt interest, right now, is the #3 line item on annual spend. Now go jack around with that with rates that aren't at current levels and see what happens.

This parroting of "we've always been worried about the debt" ignores history, reality, and math. So, your age is irrelevant if you don't understand these three things.

---

I'd like to add that I don't give a krap what happens to you and the national debt.

---

This attitude is why I'll be paying off your generation's policies and then apologizing to my kids for having to hand the rest of the debt off to them.

If only I had bought less avocado toast!

---

Yeah…my one vote each election is the reason my generation is to blame for this. You obviously don't understand much about who's making the decisions in this world.

knoxtom said:

---

One month in since I sold every stock and fund (except the 401k).

Holding nothing but a few bitcoins and cash right now in my regular account. I haven't touched the 401k

Average decline of the stocks I sold is right around 10% for the last month. Biggest loser is 21.89%.

Making 4.5% on cash in my account so overall I almost broke even in the last month. I lost some on bitcoin. By my rudimentary calculations had I kept my money in the stocks and funds I would have lost 10ish% and I would have not made the 4.5%, so I would be 14-15% lower * the % of the portfolio held in stocks and funds.

I still think there is another 20-30% drop coming before I start buying back in, maybe more. I do not have a specific target, just watching the policies and their affect on the country.

---

Since I don't have time to read this entire thread, did you post a month ago that you sold everything or just now posting the decision you said you made a month back? Because I can easily be100% accurate timing the market when posting about things that 'happened' in the past.

MillionaireSock said:

---

knoxtom said:

---

One month in since I sold every stock and fund (except the 401k).

Holding nothing but a few bitcoins and cash right now in my regular account. I haven't touched the 401k

Average decline of the stocks I sold is right around 10% for the last month. Biggest loser is 21.89%.

Making 4.5% on cash in my account so overall I almost broke even in the last month. I lost some on bitcoin. By my rudimentary calculations had I kept my money in the stocks and funds I would have lost 10ish% and I would have not made the 4.5%, so I would be 14-15% lower * the % of the portfolio held in stocks and funds.

I still think there is another 20-30% drop coming before I start buying back in, maybe more. I do not have a specific target, just watching the policies and their affect on the country.

---

What vehicle did you use to make 4.5% on your cash in ~1 month? That is roughly equivalent (slightly higher even) to what I am making in a HYSA over a full year, where I am only making <0.4% per month.

Thanks!

---

You are correct, it is 4.5% annual and I was typing faster than I was thinking.

knoxtom said:

---

On my regular trading account I just sold every stock and went to cash. I may switch the entire 401k to bond funds as well.

Simple as this... I do not see how the stock market will be higher in 6 months or a year than it is now. Hope I am wrong, but I doubt it will happen

---

newbie11 said:

---

amateur gene ecologist said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

halfastros81 said:

---

This . Keep emotions out of it as much as possible and bet on businesses to increase value to their shareholders over the long haul.

---

There is so much built in incentive for the markets to continue upward. Fund managers MUST beat the indexes to keep their clients happy and maintain their bonuses. Money goes in every week/month into 401ks and pensions they get invested.

There's almost no way to time the markets even for the huge fund managers.

one example…Does anyone think the world can function without technology? Does anyone think there won't be new technology developed every year and suddenly necessary for every human and business on earth to remain competitive? Good luck betting against that.

Many indexes automatically rebalance to the top 100 or 500 top performers and market cap leaders every year. It's a built in system to maintain upward momentum and eliminate losing companies.

---

While true, this completely discounts external macro forces. Personally, I've never left the market since I started working 30 years ago so I'm a believer in time in the market vs timing the market. However, we can no longer just write off the unprecedented macro forces we are experiencing and about to experience.

Everyone on here has grown up in the Golden Age of post WWII Bretton Woods and just assumes nothing will ever change. That is supreme hubris. Our debt has skyrocketed to levels never before seen since 2008 and the math to address that (paying debt interest) is now our #3 most expensive line item. And it's only going to get worse. We've never had this situation before.

Now couple that with a retreat from global markets and supply chains to more regional models and you have massive change happening...right now. I still haven't left the market but have starting de-risking. I'm trying to hedge my bets as best as I can without wholesale leaving the market. I can understand why some people do that considering the reality right in front of us.

---

I'm going to guess I'm a little older than you but they've been talking about the debt since Ross Perot ran for potus in '92. And here we are…

I think derisking makes some sense but if you're honestly worried about the US defaulting on its debts, there's not a single place in the world that's safe and that includes gold.

---

I'm 51 so I'm not super young. And talking about the debt in 1992 as if it's remotely comparable to 2025 is idiotic to put it politely. You might as well compare computers with vacuum tubes to computers driven with quantum mechanics.

It was brought up then because we could do something about it if more than 5 people had had the discipline and foresight to think ahead and simply run the numbers. The debt in 1992 was still somewhat manageable because....math. This constant refrain on here that "we've always complained about the debt and we are fine" belies the fact that the underlying fundamentals are not remotely the same any more.

Why do you think we only ever move rates by a quarter to half point now? It's because we can absorb very little change to interest payments because....math. Interest rate moves these days are a charade. It's simply psychological maneuvering to calm the populace.

In 1980 Volcker raised rates to 20%. Why do you think that is? It's because in 1980 our total debt was "only" $1T. Try applying rates anywhere near that number on $37T in debt and see what happens. At current levels, our debt interest, right now, is the #3 line item on annual spend. Now go jack around with that with rates that aren't at current levels and see what happens.

This parroting of "we've always been worried about the debt" ignores history, reality, and math. So, your age is irrelevant if you don't understand these three things.

---

I'd like to add that I don't give a krap what happens to you and the national debt.

---

This attitude is why I'll be paying off your generation's policies and then apologizing to my kids for having to hand the rest of the debt off to them.

If only I had bought less avocado toast!

---

Yeah…my one vote each election is the reason my generation is to blame for this. You obviously don't understand much about who's making the decisions in this world.

---

I'm willing to bet reading comprehension was not something you tested high on in school.

I'm not sure where I said your "one vote" made a difference. I said the attitude. More than one person can have an attitude.

Anyway, I'll get back to work so I can pay your social security. And by that I don't mean yours literally, I mean my small part of the whole system where you will draw a small portion. I feel like I needed to clarify.

I've been in some bond funds in my 401k - I'll be incrementally converting them to SP500 coming up - buy the fear!

Kinda wish I had foresee this large drop. But then again, if I had sold all my investment we would have seen record gains of the next few days.

I guess I'll continue purchasing bits and pieces here and there on these larger dips.

amateur gene ecologist said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

amateur gene ecologist said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

YouBet said:

---

newbie11 said:

---

halfastros81 said:

---

This . Keep emotions out of it as much as possible and bet on businesses to increase value to their shareholders over the long haul.

---

There is so much built in incentive for the markets to continue upward. Fund managers MUST beat the indexes to keep their clients happy and maintain their bonuses. Money goes in every week/month into 401ks and pensions they get invested.

There's almost no way to time the markets even for the huge fund managers.

one example…Does anyone think the world can function without technology? Does anyone think there won't be new technology developed every year and suddenly necessary for every human and business on earth to remain competitive? Good luck betting against that.

Many indexes automatically rebalance to the top 100 or 500 top performers and market cap leaders every year. It's a built in system to maintain upward momentum and eliminate losing companies.

---

While true, this completely discounts external macro forces. Personally, I've never left the market since I started working 30 years ago so I'm a believer in time in the market vs timing the market. However, we can no longer just write off the unprecedented macro forces we are experiencing and about to experience.

Everyone on here has grown up in the Golden Age of post WWII Bretton Woods and just assumes nothing will ever change. That is supreme hubris. Our debt has skyrocketed to levels never before seen since 2008 and the math to address that (paying debt interest) is now our #3 most expensive line item. And it's only going to get worse. We've never had this situation before.

Now couple that with a retreat from global markets and supply chains to more regional models and you have massive change happening...right now. I still haven't left the market but have starting de-risking. I'm trying to hedge my bets as best as I can without wholesale leaving the market. I can understand why some people do that considering the reality right in front of us.

---

I'm going to guess I'm a little older than you but they've been talking about the debt since Ross Perot ran for potus in '92. And here we are…

I think derisking makes some sense but if you're honestly worried about the US defaulting on its debts, there's not a single place in the world that's safe and that includes gold.

---

I'm 51 so I'm not super young. And talking about the debt in 1992 as if it's remotely comparable to 2025 is idiotic to put it politely. You might as well compare computers with vacuum tubes to computers driven with quantum mechanics.

It was brought up then because we could do something about it if more than 5 people had had the discipline and foresight to think ahead and simply run the numbers. The debt in 1992 was still somewhat manageable because....math. This constant refrain on here that "we've always complained about the debt and we are fine" belies the fact that the underlying fundamentals are not remotely the same any more.

Why do you think we only ever move rates by a quarter to half point now? It's because we can absorb very little change to interest payments because....math. Interest rate moves these days are a charade. It's simply psychological maneuvering to calm the populace.

In 1980 Volcker raised rates to 20%. Why do you think that is? It's because in 1980 our total debt was "only" $1T. Try applying rates anywhere near that number on $37T in debt and see what happens. At current levels, our debt interest, right now, is the #3 line item on annual spend. Now go jack around with that with rates that aren't at current levels and see what happens.

This parroting of "we've always been worried about the debt" ignores history, reality, and math. So, your age is irrelevant if you don't understand these three things.

---

I'd like to add that I don't give a krap what happens to you and the national debt.

---

This attitude is why I'll be paying off your generation's policies and then apologizing to my kids for having to hand the rest of the debt off to them.

If only I had bought less avocado toast!

---

Yeah…my one vote each election is the reason my generation is to blame for this. You obviously don't understand much about who's making the decisions in this world.

---

I'm willing to bet reading comprehension was not something you tested high on in school.

I'm not sure where I said your "one vote" made a difference. I said the attitude. More than one person can have an attitude.

Anyway, I'll get back to work so I can pay your social security. And by that I don't mean yours literally, I mean my small part of the whole system where you will draw a small portion. I feel like I needed to clarify.

---

I feel pretty certain that I paid way way way more into the system than I will ever receive in benefits. I was very fortunate in my career making plenty of money and paying more tax than most people earn each year. So….youre welcome.