texaglurkerguy said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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richardag said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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richardag said:

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Zobel said:

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The formula doesn't take tariffs into account at all. As they have put in place it is just a function of trade deficit.

Edit to add; if you want to "steelman" the approach they're saying the only way you have a persistent trade imbalance is if you are cheating somehow. So a large trade deficit is defacto evidence of some kind of manipulation - therefore the trade imbalance itself is all you look at. I don't think that's necessarily true, or even right, but that is a way to see the argument.

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Indirectly they do take into account tariffs. Tariffs imposed on our exports indirectly affect trade imbalances by making our exports more expensive.
I am not a macro economist but I can see what the formula is trying to account for trade imbalances. Will it work is the question. Seems to have caught the attention of some countries leaders as they are attempting to negotiate their tariffs.

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Trade imbalances itself are pretty stupid. The idea that a country with a fraction of our population is supposed to buy as much stuff from as we do from them is impossible.

• I haven't seen anywhere that anyone is expecting small countries be required to buy as much stuff from the US as we but from them. Could you point me to a link where this was stated?

What he should be trying to do is muscle the big guys who do have tariffs against us. The goal should be to drive exports, keep the demand for the US dollar strong.

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That's what the reciprocal tariffs are. They're just a trade ratio of exports to imports.

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The reason this formula has been derided so much is because the first two terms in the denominator cancel each other out. It's amateurish application of historically bad economic policy.

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Quo Vadis? said:

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BusterAg said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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BusterAg said:

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Please do not call the crap that Trump rolled out on 4/2 reciprocal tariffs. It just hurts the discussion. They are Trump's tariffs, but they are not reciprocal tariffs.

Reciprocal tariffs are a good idea. This crap Trump put out is not.

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I like it; it's completely false but it makes it seem like we're just defending ourselves. All of politics is smoke and mirrors at best and outright lies at worst, and this is fairly milquetoast as far as it goes

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If this is just Art of the Deal stuff that leads to tariff free bilateral trade deals, I do think you have to give Trump and team credit for playing 4D chess.

If this is the actual policy goal going forward, to try and replace the income tax with tariff fees, then Trump is an idiot.

He is either really stupid, or the world champ of being as stupid as a fox. I guess we will see in the coming months.

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I predict more or less the status quo with a bunch of heavily advertised "wins" that don't actually amount to much; and trump giving a token "tariff rebate" in the form of a check to Americans.

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DonHenley said:

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Trump is careening the economy to a recession and has tanked the stock market, wiping out billions in investments. He's gonna hand the Dems the midterms in 26' because people don't care about trade wars and illegal immigration when the economy sucks.

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DonHenley said:

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Trump is careening the economy to a recession and has tanked the stock market, wiping out billions in investments. He's gonna hand the Dems the midterms in 26' because people don't care about trade wars and illegal immigration when the economy sucks.

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DonHenley said:

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Good lord dude, Trump is the reason why this is happening, when it wasn't needed

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DonHenley said:

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Trump is careening the economy to a recession and has tanked the stock market, wiping out billions in investments. He's gonna hand the Dems the midterms in 26' because people don't care about trade wars and illegal immigration when the economy sucks.

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Quo Vadis? said:

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DonHenley said:

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Trump is careening the economy to a recession and has tanked the stock market, wiping out billions in investments. He's gonna hand the Dems the midterms in 26' because people don't care about trade wars and illegal immigration when the economy sucks.

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Good lord dude, the stock market is where it was 8 months ago. Sorry you can't have phony double digit returns every year.

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The real plan all along was to lower interest rates and lower oil prices as soon as possible.

The 10-year note yield is down -90 bps and oil prices are down -25%.

The tariffs are "working" as planned. pic.twitter.com/PaZRoQ7RL1

— Adam Kobeissi (@TKL_Adam) April 4, 2025

BusterAg said:

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Please do not call the crap that Trump rolled out on 4/2 reciprocal tariffs. It just hurts the discussion. They are Trump's tariffs, but they are not reciprocal tariffs.

Reciprocal tariffs are a good idea. This crap Trump put out is not.

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LMCane said:

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so the Stock Market is crashing...

all the way back down to the level it was at in October 2024.

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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will25u said:

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The real plan all along was to lower interest rates and lower oil prices as soon as possible.

The 10-year note yield is down -90 bps and oil prices are down -25%.

The tariffs are "working" as planned. pic.twitter.com/PaZRoQ7RL1

— Adam Kobeissi (@TKL_Adam) April 4, 2025

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The 10 Year was at 3.6% in September pre-election. It shot up for multiple reasons post-election. But it didn't require tariffs to bring it back down to 4.2%.

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The risk of a credit event happening in the US has risen to 2023 Regional Bank Crisis levels.

Markets believe a credit event is near. pic.twitter.com/ef5WEUtp7t

— Adam Kobeissi (@TKL_Adam) April 4, 2025

ETFan said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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DonHenley said:

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Trump is careening the economy to a recession and has tanked the stock market, wiping out billions in investments. He's gonna hand the Dems the midterms in 26' because people don't care about trade wars and illegal immigration when the economy sucks.

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Good lord dude, the stock market is where it was 8 months ago. Sorry you can't have phony double digit returns every year.

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You folks will just eat anything won't you?

Campaign trail was all about cost of groceries, inflation, blah blah.

Now it's "yes dear leader I will eat a **** sandwich for you!"

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Quo Vadis? said:

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ETFan said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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DonHenley said:

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Trump is careening the economy to a recession and has tanked the stock market, wiping out billions in investments. He's gonna hand the Dems the midterms in 26' because people don't care about trade wars and illegal immigration when the economy sucks.

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Good lord dude, the stock market is where it was 8 months ago. Sorry you can't have phony double digit returns every year.

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You folks will just eat anything won't you?

Campaign trail was all about cost of groceries, inflation, blah blah.

Now it's "yes dear leader I will eat a **** sandwich for you!"

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Politician lies to get elected, story at 11

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Start with the debt: $9.2T must be refinanced in 2025.

If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.

Lower yields free up fiscal room—without them, core spending gets crowded out. pic.twitter.com/bdNm7JaycO

— Tanvi Ratna (@tanvi_ratna) April 3, 2025

If it works, it’s a defining success:
→ Debt under control
→ Manufacturing reborn
→ Global leverage restored
→ Trumpism vindicated in 2026

If it fails:
→ Inflation
→ Retaliation
→ Lost midterms
→ Strategic drift

18 months to find out if the gamble pays off.

— Tanvi Ratna (@tanvi_ratna) April 3, 2025

ETFan said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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ETFan said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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DonHenley said:

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Trump is careening the economy to a recession and has tanked the stock market, wiping out billions in investments. He's gonna hand the Dems the midterms in 26' because people don't care about trade wars and illegal immigration when the economy sucks.

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Good lord dude, the stock market is where it was 8 months ago. Sorry you can't have phony double digit returns every year.

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You folks will just eat anything won't you?

Campaign trail was all about cost of groceries, inflation, blah blah.

Now it's "yes dear leader I will eat a **** sandwich for you!"

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Politician lies to get elected, story at 11

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Cult member continues to defend leader despite sandwich being made of *****

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JUST IN: 🇰🇭🇺🇸 Cambodia to cut tariffs on select US imports to 5%, down from 35%.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 4, 2025

🚨 BREAKING - ART OF THE DEAL ALERT: Vietnam official calls Trump, says they want to remove ALL tariffs in deal with the U.S. pic.twitter.com/BDZodonson

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 4, 2025

TARIFFS: German Minister of Trade Habeck is calling US tariffs equivalent to Russia’s war on Ukraine and is calling for an equal response from Germany to the US as it has delivered to Putin. pic.twitter.com/pKFywkaMHw

— @amuse (@amuse) April 4, 2025

1) 1996 Nancy Pelosi encourages all of Congress to back reciprocal tariffs

2) 2008 Bernie Sanders wants tariffs, says jobs are going overseas

3) 2018 Barack Obama calls for reciprocal tariffs

4) 1988 Donald Trump says foreign countries must pay tariffs

Only 1 hasn’t sold out pic.twitter.com/6jqXqaYALC

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) April 4, 2025

Kansas Kid said:

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Mr.Milkshake said:

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2018 U.S. manufacturing employment (Dec): 12.785 million
2019 U.S. manufacturing employment (Dec): 12.865 million

Next

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2018 tariffs were only related to aluminum and steel. You are looking at tot manufacturing employment which is not relevant analysis.

Of note, the growth in manufacturing in 2019 was a fraction of what it was in the year before the tariffs.

Manufacturing employment grew by 61,000 in 2019, less than a quarter of the 264,000 jobs added in 2018. Sharp reversals (ie net losses) in employment growth occurred in machinery, fabricated metal products, motor vehicles and parts, and primary metals, all of which had gained jobs a year earlier.

In other words, we lost net jobs in industries that use metal as key raw material like fabrication, cars and primary metals.

Next

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2020/article/employment-expansion-continued-in-2019-but-growth-slowed-in-several-industries.htm

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will25u said:

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1) 1996 Nancy Pelosi encourages all of Congress to back reciprocal tariffs

2) 2008 Bernie Sanders wants tariffs, says jobs are going overseas

3) 2018 Barack Obama calls for reciprocal tariffs

4) 1988 Donald Trump says foreign countries must pay tariffs

Only 1 hasn’t sold out pic.twitter.com/6jqXqaYALC

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) April 4, 2025

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will25u said:

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1) 1996 Nancy Pelosi encourages all of Congress to back reciprocal tariffs

2) 2008 Bernie Sanders wants tariffs, says jobs are going overseas

3) 2018 Barack Obama calls for reciprocal tariffs

4) 1988 Donald Trump says foreign countries must pay tariffs

Only 1 hasn’t sold out pic.twitter.com/6jqXqaYALC

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) April 4, 2025

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will25u said:

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JUST IN: 🇰🇭🇺🇸 Cambodia to cut tariffs on select US imports to 5%, down from 35%.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 4, 2025

🚨 BREAKING - ART OF THE DEAL ALERT: Vietnam official calls Trump, says they want to remove ALL tariffs in deal with the U.S. pic.twitter.com/BDZodonson

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 4, 2025

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Truly incredible:

1. President Trump 10 minutes ago: Fed Chair Powell is always "late" to cut rates, "cut interest rates, Jerome, and stop playing politics!"

2. Fed Chair Powell now: It is "too soon" to determine the appropriate policy path.

Fed Chair Powell and President…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 4, 2025

President Trump just accused Fed Chair Powell of always being "late" to cut rates.

Despite markets pricing-in more rate cuts, Powell is saying he is willing to wait.

US stocks are extending losses.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 4, 2025

Quote:

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What MAGA doesn't realize is that other countries making your products is a sign of strength,

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Squadron7 said:

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Quote:

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What MAGA doesn't realize is that other countries making your products is a sign of strength,

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This looks more like a hostage situation to me.

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newbie11 said:

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I'm certainly not a macroeconomist but it certainly seems that trumps tariffs are forcing many countries to capitulate. And very quickly.

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