will25u said:

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The tentative Texas redistricting plan is to draw out the following districts

1. #TX28 (Henry Cuellar’s seat)
2 #TX32 (Julie Johnson’s seat)
3. #TX34 (Vicente Gonzalez’s seat)
4. Unknown seat in the Houston area
5. TBD seat. Potentially the Austin area

Source: Punchbowl

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 15, 2025

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The Houston district is CD18, which is currently vacant and where I live.

Let's say Republicans can make this happen and pickup 5 seats. The question then becomes how long can they hold them? In order to put more R voters into a D district, the R voters have to come from somewhere and the D voters have to go somewhere.

Texas has been gerrymandered into a bunch of 65-35 and 70-30 safe districts, and CD18 typically runs 70%-75% Democrat. Where do Republicans find enough R voters to increase their numbers by 25% or more? This scenario starts to create more 55-45 districts, which puts them in play and if you end up with super-motivated D voters like happened in 2008 and 2020, those narrow margins could result in the districts flipping.

This also doesn't take into account the fact that urban areas have consistently increasing numbers of D voters, which also makes 55-45 districts risky over time. ETA: Given the short-notice and limited timeframe to redistrict in a special session, the Lege will have to rely on 202 census data, which will undoubtedly be incorrect and undercount the number of current D voters in urban areas, so they might look at the data and think they are making a district 55-45, when in reality it could end up being 53-47 or 52-48.

Ryan the Temp said:

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will25u said:

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The tentative Texas redistricting plan is to draw out the following districts

1. #TX28 (Henry Cuellar’s seat)
2 #TX32 (Julie Johnson’s seat)
3. #TX34 (Vicente Gonzalez’s seat)
4. Unknown seat in the Houston area
5. TBD seat. Potentially the Austin area

Source: Punchbowl

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 15, 2025

---

The Houston district is CD18, which is currently vacant and where I live.

Let's say Republicans can make this happen and pickup 5 seats. The question then becomes how long can they hold them? In order to put more R voters into a D district, the R voters have to come from somewhere and the D voters have to go somewhere.

Texas has been gerrymandered into a bunch of 65-35 and 70-30 safe districts, and CD18 typically runs 70%-75% Democrat. Where do Republicans find enough R voters to increase their numbers by 25% or more? This scenario starts to create more 55-45 districts, which puts them in play and if you end up with super-motivated D voters like happened in 2008 and 2020, those narrow margins could result in the districts flipping.

This also doesn't take into account the fact that urban areas have consistently increasing numbers of D voters, which also makes 55-45 districts risky over time. ETA: Given the short-notice and limited timeframe to redistrict in a special session, the Lege will have to rely on 202 census data, which will undoubtedly be incorrect and undercount the number of current D voters in urban areas, so they might look at the data and think they are making a district 55-45, when in reality it could end up being 53-47 or 52-48.

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2020 census also included illegals, so it may overcount actual voters in urban areas.

txags92 said:

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Ryan the Temp said:

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will25u said:

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The tentative Texas redistricting plan is to draw out the following districts

1. #TX28 (Henry Cuellar’s seat)
2 #TX32 (Julie Johnson’s seat)
3. #TX34 (Vicente Gonzalez’s seat)
4. Unknown seat in the Houston area
5. TBD seat. Potentially the Austin area

Source: Punchbowl

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 15, 2025

---

The Houston district is CD18, which is currently vacant and where I live.

Let's say Republicans can make this happen and pickup 5 seats. The question then becomes how long can they hold them? In order to put more R voters into a D district, the R voters have to come from somewhere and the D voters have to go somewhere.

Texas has been gerrymandered into a bunch of 65-35 and 70-30 safe districts, and CD18 typically runs 70%-75% Democrat. Where do Republicans find enough R voters to increase their numbers by 25% or more? This scenario starts to create more 55-45 districts, which puts them in play and if you end up with super-motivated D voters like happened in 2008 and 2020, those narrow margins could result in the districts flipping.

This also doesn't take into account the fact that urban areas have consistently increasing numbers of D voters, which also makes 55-45 districts risky over time. ETA: Given the short-notice and limited timeframe to redistrict in a special session, the Lege will have to rely on 202 census data, which will undoubtedly be incorrect and undercount the number of current D voters in urban areas, so they might look at the data and think they are making a district 55-45, when in reality it could end up being 53-47 or 52-48.

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2020 census also included illegals, so it may overcount actual voters in urban areas.

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There is no scenario in which the population density of US citizens in urban areas in Texas has not increased between 2020 and 2025.

Ryan the Temp said:

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txags92 said:

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Ryan the Temp said:

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will25u said:

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The tentative Texas redistricting plan is to draw out the following districts

1. #TX28 (Henry Cuellar’s seat)
2 #TX32 (Julie Johnson’s seat)
3. #TX34 (Vicente Gonzalez’s seat)
4. Unknown seat in the Houston area
5. TBD seat. Potentially the Austin area

Source: Punchbowl

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 15, 2025

---

The Houston district is CD18, which is currently vacant and where I live.

Let's say Republicans can make this happen and pickup 5 seats. The question then becomes how long can they hold them? In order to put more R voters into a D district, the R voters have to come from somewhere and the D voters have to go somewhere.

Texas has been gerrymandered into a bunch of 65-35 and 70-30 safe districts, and CD18 typically runs 70%-75% Democrat. Where do Republicans find enough R voters to increase their numbers by 25% or more? This scenario starts to create more 55-45 districts, which puts them in play and if you end up with super-motivated D voters like happened in 2008 and 2020, those narrow margins could result in the districts flipping.

This also doesn't take into account the fact that urban areas have consistently increasing numbers of D voters, which also makes 55-45 districts risky over time. ETA: Given the short-notice and limited timeframe to redistrict in a special session, the Lege will have to rely on 202 census data, which will undoubtedly be incorrect and undercount the number of current D voters in urban areas, so they might look at the data and think they are making a district 55-45, when in reality it could end up being 53-47 or 52-48.

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2020 census also included illegals, so it may overcount actual voters in urban areas.

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There is no scenario in which the population density of US citizens in urban areas in Texas has not increased between 2020 and 2025.

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Where did I say that it didn't? All I said is that the 2020 census included a lot of illegals and that may have overcounted the number of people actually eligible to vote in the urban areas.

The census counts people, not people eligible to vote, but the bottom line is there is not, nor will there be new census numbers within the next 34 days. The Lege can estimate changes in population, but those estimates will not be generally indicative of voting behavior.

Ryan the Temp said:

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The census counts people, not people eligible to vote, but the bottom line is there is not, nor will there be new census numbers within the next 34 days. The Lege can estimate changes in population, but those estimates will not be generally indicative of voting behavior.

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Are you deliberately missing the point? The census from 2010 and prior counted people...and it could be assumed that 100% of them over the age of 18 were eligible to vote unless they were felons, etc. If you knew the district voting record and the turnout percentages, you could reliably estimate how many people in a given area would likely vote D or R.

In 2020, we counted the illegals, but to my knowledge did not identify them as a separate category in the census, so the assumption that everybody over 18 who is not a felon is eligible to vote is no longer valid, but we don't have any way to quantify how many of them are not eligible. So assuming all of the census numbers over 18 from 2020 for a given urban district are "potential voters" for the purpose of trying to apportion the districts is likely to overcount D voters because a significant portion of the census number is likely to come from illegals who cannot vote. With the millions of illegals that were let into the country over the last 4 years, that is not going to be an insignificant number.

Quote:

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In 2020, we counted the illegals, but to my knowledge did not identify them as a separate category in the census,

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Undocumented immigrants have always been counted by the US Census, but the number of them has never been directly reported or identified as a "separate category." Other agencies evaluate and report on that information. This is not something that magically changed in 2020. That's the way it's always been. The only thing different in 2020 was Trump attempted to have undocumented immigrants wholly excluded from the Census and his efforts were determined to be unconstitutional.

Quote:

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so the assumption that everybody over 18 who is not a felon is eligible to vote is no longer valid,

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Any assumption that everybody over 18 who is not a felon is eligible to vote has never been valid, and to the best of my knowledge, the US Census has never made this assumption, based on the information I posted above.

Ryan the Temp said:

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Quote:

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In 2020, we counted the illegals, but to my knowledge did not identify them as a separate category in the census,

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Undocumented immigrants have always been counted by the US Census, but the number of them has never been directly reported or identified as a "separate category." Other agencies evaluate and report on that information. This is not something that magically changed in 2020. That's the way it's always been. The only thing different in 2020 was Trump attempted to have undocumented immigrants wholly excluded from the Census and his efforts were determined to be unconstitutional.

Quote:

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so the assumption that everybody over 18 who is not a felon is eligible to vote is no longer valid,

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Any assumption that everybody over 18 who is not a felon is eligible to vote has never been valid, and to the best of my knowledge, the US Census has never made this assumption, based on the information I posted above.

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The US census has never made that assumption, but the political parties gerrymandering districts do.

My point stands - Any assumption that everybody over 18 who is not a felon is eligible to vote has never been valid.

Ryan the Temp said:

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My point stands - Any assumption that everybody over 18 who is not a felon is eligible to vote has never been valid.

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Doesn't really matter anyway. Burrows is not going to cross his dem friends to give Abbott what he wants. Burrows still wants to be speaker next session and he knows he won't get there without relying on the democrats again.

TRM said:

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Apparently you don't, if you want to lump in a North Dallas suburb narrative to South Dallas and South Texas

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There's plenty of stupid in South Dallas and South Texas. And it's related to the squishy types that pays no mind to race and gender.

Ag in Tiger Country said:

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Find out a way for compromise where Dan Crenshaw's new district is heavily Democrat while the new districts are heavily Republican; that's a WIN/ WIN!

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I'm more than good with that

It's a different type of stupid. Sorry, you can't figure that out.

Looking forward to less Democrats in the House.

Don't get the point of this if it causes California and NY turn around and gerrymander as well, GOP will not hold the House for at least another decade if so.

If we had competent leadership in DC the GOP would not be in this position to begin with.

Yeah. Whatever. Same squishy forces at work.

Ag CPA said:

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Don't get the point of this if it causes California and NY turn around and gerrymander as well, GOP will not hold the House for at least another decade if so.

If we had competent leadership in DC the GOP would not be in this position to begin with.

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Ummmm...

They already did that...

Ah so when this is over we'll still be living and owning homes in a high tax state

Hakeem Jeffries:

Republican redistricting is "a scheme to rig elections."

Democrat redistricting is to "maximize fairness."

🤡🌎 pic.twitter.com/XfNLbJdK2q

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) July 20, 2025

New York: Dems 19, Reps 7...73% Democrat

2024 POTUS election...56% Democrat.

But, yeah..."fairness".

Really glad the "journalist" pushed back on his bull*****..



BWAHAHAHAHAHA

Actually, this map bodes very well for me. I would still keep the current lines if I were able.

pic.twitter.com/cKjpAYQLoX

— Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. (@GregoryKunkleJr) July 21, 2025

Previous map.

pic.twitter.com/hl57iIJ43Q

— Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. (@GregoryKunkleJr) July 21, 2025

Kunkle for Congress TX-34 said:

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Actually, this map bodes very well for me. I would still keep the current lines if I were able.

pic.twitter.com/cKjpAYQLoX

— Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. (@GregoryKunkleJr) July 21, 2025

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I didn't see an obvious number but that Gulf Coast line is impressive. I can't decide if I'd want the extra R district or would prefer someone with more local representation than mileage covering a large chunk of the state.

Kunkle for Congress TX-34 said:

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Actually, this map bodes very well for me. I would still keep the current lines if I were able.

pic.twitter.com/cKjpAYQLoX

— Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. (@GregoryKunkleJr) July 21, 2025

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That 27th district is ridiculous. Bastrop county has exactly the same needs and concerns as the Rio Grande Valley, right?

txags92 said:

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Kunkle for Congress TX-34 said:

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Actually, this map bodes very well for me. I would still keep the current lines if I were able.

pic.twitter.com/cKjpAYQLoX

— Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. (@GregoryKunkleJr) July 21, 2025

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That 27th district is ridiculous. Bastrop county has exactly the same needs and concerns as the Rio Grande Valley, right?

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Yes, LaGrange and Zapata are basically twin cities.

Troy91 said:

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txags92 said:

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Kunkle for Congress TX-34 said:

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Actually, this map bodes very well for me. I would still keep the current lines if I were able.

pic.twitter.com/cKjpAYQLoX

— Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. (@GregoryKunkleJr) July 21, 2025

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That 27th district is ridiculous. Bastrop county has exactly the same needs and concerns as the Rio Grande Valley, right?

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Yes, LaGrange and Zapata are basically twin cities.

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I am for redistricting and want them to find a way to increase the # of R seats. But that district is ridiculous and is unlikely to survive a challenge in court. It is clearly drawn to dilute the valley vote and south side of San Antonio with a bunch of white conservative voters east and southeast of Austin. There are better ways to do what they are trying to do there.

Can we redistrict Crockett's seat?

AgCMT said:

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Can we redistrict Crockett's seat?

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Has to be a few districts which are majority black. Any map that tried to eliminate them would get blocked by the courts in 2 seconds. Even the USSC would not allow it. So just like SJL was and Al Green is, she is in a district that will always exist.

So who does this proposal get rid of?

Any new competitive districts?

Im Gipper said:

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So who does this proposal get rid of?

Any new competitive districts?

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No one. Democrats are in control of the process.

txags92 said:

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Kunkle for Congress TX-34 said:

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Actually, this map bodes very well for me. I would still keep the current lines if I were able.

pic.twitter.com/cKjpAYQLoX

— Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. (@GregoryKunkleJr) July 21, 2025

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That 27th district is ridiculous. Bastrop county has exactly the same needs and concerns as the Rio Grande Valley, right?

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The 27th nothing in comparison to many districts that have survived court challenges elsewhere..

Aston04 said:

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txags92 said:

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Kunkle for Congress TX-34 said:

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Actually, this map bodes very well for me. I would still keep the current lines if I were able.

pic.twitter.com/cKjpAYQLoX

— Gregory Scott Kunkle Jr. (@GregoryKunkleJr) July 21, 2025

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That 27th district is ridiculous. Bastrop county has exactly the same needs and concerns as the Rio Grande Valley, right?

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The 27th nothing in comparison to many districts that have survived court challenges elsewhere..

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Maybe in shape, but scaled against the state of Texas, it is really long and crosses a lot of geographic and socioeconomic terrain. As a resident living in what would be that district, I don't want my rep splitting his attention between what is important where I live and dealing with the mess along the border.

Buddy of mine that follows TXLEGE significantly more than I do said this map is bull.

No one has seen the correct redistricting…which I think would explain how stupid this one looks.

Kunkle for Congress TX-34 said:

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Buddy of mine that follows TXLEGE significantly more than I do said this map is bull.

No one has seen the correct redistricting…which I think would explain how stupid this one looks.

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I hope you are right, because that one is terrible.

It is on the agenda for the special session
Because Abbott thinks this is a viable goal which means maps that accomplish the goal of creating a few more R districts exist and Abbott or his people have seen them

Given the goal of creating a handful of new R leaning districts their are only a few ways to do it because all the districts need the same number of people in them

Even if this map is just somebody's educated guess it's likely very close to one of the few solutions to this problem