I'd definitely be pro Jeff Kent for the hall. I've never really understood why he received so little consideration. Premium production at a spot that generally doesn't give you that kind of pop.

At first glance you might think it was because he was a jerk, but punching Barry Bonds is something most of us would easily forgive.

hall of fame voting has usually been wonky -- especially in the 80's

several that jump out...

Harmon Killebrew 83%
Willie Stargell 82%
Joe Morgan 82%
Willie McCovey 81%

Killebrew and McCovey are in the 500-HR club (and got there when it was very exclusive)

in 1986...79 of the 425 writers/voters did not think Willie McCovey was a Hall of Famer -- that's nuts

Its just so bonkers to me. I almost wonder if it was older sportswriters trying to protect the legacies of "their" guys who played in the 30s-60s? But then I think about it and it took Sandberg 3 years on the ballot before he even got in. That's bonkers to me too.

Jacob deGrom is the fastest pitcher in MLB history to 1,800 strikeouts by games (240) and innings (1,493.1) 🔥

h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/pUQ0Rrhosn

— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2025

Farmer1906 said:

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Jacob deGrom is the fastest pitcher in MLB history to 1,800 strikeouts by games (240) and innings (1,493.1) 🔥

h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/pUQ0Rrhosn

— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2025

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Good for him. Still needs to do more.

You can chalk it up to injuries the same as Koufax but DeGrom still hasn't put together a string of dominant seasons like Koufax. And Koufax still is way ahead of him in the counting stats department.

AggieEP said:

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What's the minimum innings count you'd want to see? 1500? 2000? For the quality of his output to matter.

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I think this is the real question to be answered. In an era where the rated stats are looked at as much as the counting stats, there should be some rule of thumb.

2,000 IP seems like a good bar. Maybe 1875 (15 yrs x 25 starts x 5 innings).

There are only 6 active players with 2k IP. In the next 2-3 years, maybe 5 more will reach that milestone, but 4-6 will likely retire.

There are something like 86 pitchers in the HOF and 11,000 or so have pitched at least one inning in the history of MLB (based on a quick Google search). That's 0.78% of all pitchers roughly.

There are roughly 390 pitchers at any given time in a season. Assume all 6 of the +2000IP guys make the HOF. 6/390 = 1.55%.

Rough math, but that's a pretty consistent proportion if you consider there are a lot of pitchers who threw very few innings.

Yeah, classic case of two hall of fame factors working for one guy and against another.

Sabathia gets the boost because of counting stats he acquired spending a career on good teams and also the Yankees boost.multiplier.

Kevin Brown on the other hand played for mostly average to mediocre teams that held down his overall win total a bit, and even still made 2 world series appearances. He was also good with the Dodgers but those teams never made the playoffs and his last few years were riddled with injuries and inconsistency.

In my mind Kevin Brown is a no brainer in a hall where Sabathia is in.

W said:

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here's a good one:

C.C. Sabathia...

career WAR 62.3 -- 251 career wins -- career ERA 3.74

Kevin Brown

career WAR 67.8 -- 211 career wins -- career ERA 3.28

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I'd put Brown in the HOF after watching what he did to the Astros in the '98 NLDS.

I've never been to a more frustrating game then his Game 1 vs Randy Johnson that year. 8 IP, 2, 0 ER, 2 BB, 16 K. A quirk in the schedule, let him come back and pitch Game 3 on short rest and he gave up 1 earned run on 3 hits in 6-2/3.

I shared this on the Astros thread (Altuve), but here is probably a better spot for it.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-report-part-ii/

Let's take the top name on the list. Manny Machado. Does he get your HOF vote?

Age 33
2047 Hits
363 HR
1127 RBI
1068 Runs
111 SB
123 wRC+
57.3 fWAR
7x AS
2x GG
7x MVP vote getter (1 2nd, 1 3rd)

If the bar is Beltre and Rolen (recent 3B inducted), I would say he's on a similar track.

Beltre: 115 wRC+, 83.5 fWAR / 111 wRC+, 59.6 fWAR thru age 33 (weirdly good age 34-39 run)
Rolen: 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR / 125 wRC+, 59.4 fWAR thru age 33

The one thing Manny might get held against him? 3B is stacked right now.

JRam: 132 wRC+, 56.4 fWAR in his age 32 season (trending ahead of Manny)
Arenado: 116 wRC+, 51.4 fWAR / 118 wRC+, 50.7 fWAR thru age 33 (he gets walloped on park factors - playing in Colorado), but his 10 GG and all-time great def will get him in.
Bregman: 135 wRC+, 43.0 fWAR in his age 31 season (the difference between Breggy and JRam? Health and baserunning.)
Chapman: 117 wRC+, 34.1 fWAR in his age 32 season (probably a notch below the others, but still very good)

Like him or not, he's put together a pretty good resume. If he can eclipse the 500 HR or 3,000 H total, he's obviously a shoo-in. If not, he'll have trouble. He's only 33 so he has some time to continue to build the counting stats if he can stay healthy.

I think so. I'm not a huge fan of Machado. I think he has matured since he got to SD, and I think it helps my perception of him.

Last night, I was thinking about the old Semien and Altuve debate we've had on here in the past. They are both over or close to be over regarding this writers metrics and getting into the HOF. I think Altuve gets there whether or not he gets to 3000 H. The fact that he was a huge part of the Astros' success for a decade will make him a lock. Maybe not first ballot, but he'll get there.

I'm not so sure about Semien. He's met, or is close to, the metrics the writer uses. He's got accolades and over 250 HRs in his career. And he holds the all-time single-season HR record for 2B. I think only 19 other middle infielders have 250+ HRs, including Altuve now. Semien will have to play 15 more seasons to reach 3,000 hits at his current pace. That may be an exaggeration, but I don't feel like doing the math.

Agree or disagree but I think Altuve will get a lot of support for being the cornerstone of the franchise for its historic run. Including being basically the foundation over the dark, 100-loss seasons.

If Kent and Utley aren't in, I don't see any way Siemien gets in

I think Utley gets in over the next 4-5 years.

Semien is 34 and just had the worst offensive season of his career. This comes after last year was completely league average. He has a sub-40 fWAR and only a 108 wRC+ for his career. Next year is his age-35 season. I don't think he has much of a chance of getting in.

But if we're talking Rangers in the HOF, I think Seager has a decent shot. The volume isn't there, but he's been good to damn good his entire career. 41 WAR and he's only 31. 2 WS MVPs don't hurt either.

TarponChaser said:

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Agree or disagree but I think Altuve will get a lot of support for being the cornerstone of the franchise for its historic run. Including being basically the foundation over the dark, 100-loss seasons.

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Altuve is one of the handful of players who would be voted in if their careers ended immediately. These aren't all the same, but all would get in IMO.

• Verlander
• Scherzer
• Kershaw
• Freeman
• Altuve
• Trout
• Ohtani

Arguments can be made for more, but they might need to do more.

• Betts
• Harper
• Lindor
• deGrom
• Jansen
• Chapman
• Kimbrel
• Goldy
• Judge

Farmer1906 said:

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TarponChaser said:

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Agree or disagree but I think Altuve will get a lot of support for being the cornerstone of the franchise for its historic run. Including being basically the foundation over the dark, 100-loss seasons.

---

Altuve is one of the handful of players who would be voted in if their careers ended immediately. These aren't all the same, but all would get in IMO.

• Verlander
• Scherzer
• Kershaw
• Freeman
• Altuve
• Trout
• Ohtani

Arguments can be made for more, but they might need to do more.

• Betts
• Harper
• Lindor
• deGrom
• Jansen
• Chapman
• Kimbrel
• Goldy
• Judge

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Been a legend since the 80!

Farmer1906 said:

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TarponChaser said:

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Agree or disagree but I think Altuve will get a lot of support for being the cornerstone of the franchise for its historic run. Including being basically the foundation over the dark, 100-loss seasons.

---

Altuve is one of the handful of players who would be voted in if their careers ended immediately. These aren't all the same, but all would get in IMO.

• Verlander
• Scherzer
• Kershaw
• Freeman
• Altuve
• Trout
• Ohtani

Arguments can be made for more, but they might need to do more.

• Betts
• Harper
• Lindor
• deGrom
• Jansen
• Chapman
• Kimbrel
• Goldy
• Judge

---

Ohtani needs to play in two more seasons after this one to be eligible for Cooperstown although the Hall would likely wave the ten season rule if his career ended due to tragic reasons.

Semien needs a miracle late career renaissance to make the hall. I keep wanting to come on this thread and make his case, but it's just not compelling enough right now. He needs more and at his age that seems unlikely.

What do we think of Chris Sale?

His run from 2012 to 2018 was damn good.

39.0 WAR from 7 seasons alone.
7x AS
Top 6 Cy 7x
143 ERA+

Then, health issues and decline hit. In 2023, he was at 47.2 bWAR & 3.10 ERA. Was it enough? probably not.

However, a resurgence occurred when he was traded to Atlanta. One elite season (finally got the CY) and another solid one this year.

He should be about in now. Another 1-2 years and it'll firm it up. He's similar to deGrom where he has an elite prime, but doesn't have the volume most guys do.

I'm really hoping that Sale gets in. If he doesn't then I'm not sure what that says about any starters getting in for a while.

We've been lucky to just finish a 20 year spam with Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw and Scherzer. But there isn't really anyone going forward that's going to put up the volume of stats that they did. So when we think of things like 200 wins as being minimum qualifications, it's hard to see how very many guys will reach that number. We might have to reorient to something like 150 wins as a starting point for analysis.

With Sale, he's been considered a dominant pitcher his entire career outside of injuries. He's got the CY award on the resume and no external negative factors working against him. If we're going to let relievers into the hall with 900 total innings pitched, surely we can look at dominant starters with 2000 innings under their belts as being very deserving of hall consideration.

But again of the voters want to take a stand and say you need 200 wins to qualify, I have no idea how long we might have to wait to see another starter enshrined.

(For instance, 2 years into his career Skenes has 19 career wins, he would need 18 more years to get to 200 at this pace. He'll likely have some variation with a few 15 win seasons, but even with that factored in that means he needs like 15 or 16 more years just to get to 200 wins unless baseball somehow changes how the win stat is awarded)

For deGrom, I really think he needs that one more CY. My initial post here was based on that. With 3 CYs I think it's hard for voters to ignore his peak because it puts him in all time great company for guys who have that many CYs.

As it stands now he's at 1500 innings. Even getting to 2000 seems unlikely at a pace of 150 a year unless he's interested in pitching into his 40s.

AggieEP said:

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I'm really hoping that Sale gets in. If he doesn't then I'm not sure what that says about any starters getting in for a while.

We've been lucky to just finish a 20 year spam with Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw and Scherzer. But there isn't really anyone going forward that's going to put up the volume of stats that they did. So when we think of things like 200 wins as being minimum qualifications, it's hard to see how very many guys will reach that number. We might have to reorient to something like 150 wins as a starting point for analysis.

With Sale, he's been considered a dominant pitcher his entire career outside of injuries. He's got the CY award on the resume and no external negative factors working against him. If we're going to let relievers into the hall with 900 total innings pitched, surely we can look at dominant starters with 2000 innings under their belts as being very deserving of hall consideration.

But again of the voters want to take a stand and say you need 200 wins to qualify, I have no idea how long we might have to wait to see another starter enshrined.

(For instance, 2 years into his career Skenes has 19 career wins, he would need 18 more years to get to 200 at this pace. He'll likely have some variation with a few 15 win seasons, but even with that factored in that means he needs like 15 or 16 more years just to get to 200 wins unless baseball somehow changes how the win stat is awarded)

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Looking at the next batch of pitchers (none of the 4 mentioned or deGrom & Sale), here is where they stand.

This assumes the IP/Year & WAR/Year continue at the 90% pace until 40. Then they stop at 40. I think this is being very generous.

Player - IP - WAR - Projected IP - Projected WAR
Cole - 1954 - 45.9 - 2630 - 61.8
Nola - 1679.1 - 37.2 - 2779 - 61.5
Webb - 1022.0 - 23.2 - 2599 - 59.0
Wheeler - 1728.1 - 41.2 - 2327 - 55.5
Gausman - 1871.1 - 36.4 - 2649 - 51.5
Gray - 1889.2 - 37.7 - 2544 - 50.8
Castillo - 1381.1 - 25.8 - 2489 - 46.4
Bieber - 849.0 - 21.6 - 1804 - 45.9
Quintana - 2080.2 - 36.0 - 2616 - 45.3
Snell - 1128.2 - 25.2 - 1941 - 43.3

I did it for more guys (Fried, Davish, Wacha, etc) but they all were in the low 40s and 30s projected WAR.

Even with this extremely charitable projection, some on here would likely vote no for all of them. If you are voting no on Sale and/or deGrom, then I can't imagine you think any of these guys will get in?

Keep in mind, Cole is out with TJ, maybe we see him midway of 26 at best. His projection aint happening. Webb is 28 so he's got a ton of uncertainty. Nola is only a career 90 ERA-. His case is the longevity one, not a super great peak. Wheeler is done for the year and could miss some of 2026. No Cy either.

After the big 4 (JV, Max, Kershaw, Greinke) we could have a decade-plus drought of SP not making the HOF. Then you're basically pinning hopes a HOFer on younger guys like Skubal, Skenes, and Yamamoto.

My take is, you start to focus more on sustained peak (WAR7, JAWS type metrics). Who was the best of the best? Who did you want if needed one win in game 7 of the WS?

AggieEP said:

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I'm really hoping that Sale gets in. If he doesn't then I'm not sure what that says about any starters getting in for a while.

We've been lucky to just finish a 20 year spam with Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw and Scherzer. But there isn't really anyone going forward that's going to put up the volume of stats that they did. So when we think of things like 200 wins as being minimum qualifications, it's hard to see how very many guys will reach that number. We might have to reorient to something like 150 wins as a starting point for analysis.

With Sale, he's been considered a dominant pitcher his entire career outside of injuries. He's got the CY award on the resume and no external negative factors working against him. If we're going to let relievers into the hall with 900 total innings pitched, surely we can look at dominant starters with 2000 innings under their belts as being very deserving of hall consideration.

But again of the voters want to take a stand and say you need 200 wins to qualify, I have no idea how long we might have to wait to see another starter enshrined.

(For instance, 2 years into his career Skenes has 19 career wins, he would need 18 more years to get to 200 at this pace. He'll likely have some variation with a few 15 win seasons, but even with that factored in that means he needs like 15 or 16 more years just to get to 200 wins unless baseball somehow changes how the win stat is awarded)

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Skenes will hit FA by 27 and sign on with a deep pocketed team (if not traded to one beforehand) and start stacking wins.

By 2029 he'll have SIX seasons of Pirates run support....he could pitch for two teams at the same time and still not be able to stack enough wins to overcome that.

This is my thought also, if Sale isn't in, then who is going to vote for Cole?

He's at like 150 wins also and probably will be lucky to get much above 200 depending on how he returns from TJ.

If Cole isn't in, then no one else on the list has much of a chance except maybe Snell if he stacks more CYs.

On the other hand, if Sale gets in comfortably, then I think that Cole and Wheeler have really good cases based on their peaks. Sonny Gray kind of cratered his chances with his disastrous NYY tenure, but otherwise has been pretty good and might have had an outside chance. The rest of the guys on there don't really pass the "if there was a game 7" argument that you bring up and I agree with. It's hard to imagine putting a guy in the HoF if you wouldn't want him with the ball in his hand with your season on the line. I do think that Sale, Cole and Wheeler all pass that test.

AgRyan04 said:

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By 2029 he'll have SIX seasons of Pirates run support....he could pitch for two teams at the same time and still not be able to stack enough wins to overcome that.

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Agreed, at this pace he'll be a free agent after 2029 with around 60 career wins.

If he's then going to get to 200 wins, he'd need 140 more, so averaging 14 per year for 10 years would get him there. I rate that as very doable for a guy like Skenes who is truly generational. But if he wants to get to 250 wins, now he needs to average 19 wins per year for 10 years, and if he wants to hit 300, he'd have to average an absurd 24 wins per year.

Those last two projections are basically impossible for him to get to.

That means for the pitcher who looks like he will be the pitcher of his generation, he's most likely going to finish between 190 and 220 wins

It's probably a dumb comment that will somehow end up being not true, but I don't see how we'll ever see another 300 game winner unless there are major changes to the game.

From 1979 - 1984, Buddy Bell had a WAR of 37 and won 6 straight Gold Gloves.

2500 hits, 2nd best defensive 3B of all time.