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145,817 Views | 429 Replies | Last: 7 days ago by Kenneth_2003
dermdoc
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Mary Grace's funeral was standing room only. Police did a cool thing by having pink bows on the back of their motorcycles and lined up as an honor guard. Pray for the parents.
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mccjames
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My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
Easy come, Easy go
dubi
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dermdoc said:

Mary Grace's funeral was standing room only. Police did a cool thing by having pink bows on the back of their motorcycles and lined up as an honor guard. Pray for the parents.

We were all with you in spirit.
Gunny456
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No words do justice. Just pouring out loving prayers to you and your family.
Rascal
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Hey Nav said:

The councilman in the video is a former Marine. I think he is speaking accurately.

Btw, the City Manager of Kerrville, Dalton Rice, was also onboard. (He's the guy in the ball cap speaking a lot at all the press conferences.) For those that may have wondered why Dalton was out on the river walk in Kerrville at 3am of the tragic morning, it's because it was his habit to be up at that time for his morning run. He is a 13 year Army Special Forces veteran ( you know, a real Green Beret).

As I mentioned on day one, he is sharp and we're lucky we've had him involved in this small town.

I watched the press conference last Monday and thought he did a good job handling tough questions and a brutal situation. Decided to look him up on LinkedIn, found him and sent him a note of encouragement.

I have no ties to Kerrville, but felt he needed support from the outside.
Burdizzo
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Those reporters from San Antonio are some of the worst. They act like they are doing everyone favors by trashing these public officials right now
skinny2001
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SUag said:

There will likely be a strong viable mass of return campers to places like La Junta regardless of location, but how can you think the new camper family pool will not be dramatically shrunk if kept where it is? First level research will go from one isolated child abuse story 20+ years ago to biblical death flood in the area as recent as it could be.

Personally, if I were a camp owner, I would move the camp to a non-flood risk lake front asap and try to get as much support from the alumni to help fund it and otherwise transition.



I think that's the only way they can continue. I imagine any of these camps couldn't renew their GL until all of the litigation works itself out.

And I'm not sure they could operate until the litigation without having to fight through some sort of injunction. I'm not an attorney (I'm sure it's obvious after you reading this)

But I bet the camps don't have the liquid assets to cover the hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions in legal fees needed to get through to the other side. Moving locations or drastically improving the locations in order for an insurance company to be satisfied I think will be the only way.

La junta and mystic have a very wealthy, connected and motivated alumni base so, who knows.

Camps are needed - but the world has changed and unfortunately this is another event that proves that point. It's just sad all around.



aptexas
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Anyone have perspective on why the camps along the North fork received less damage? Is the elevation significantly different there?
Phat32
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aptexas said:

Anyone have perspective on why the camps along the North fork received less damage? Is the elevation significantly different there?

North Fork gauge at Hunt got to a little over 20 feet, while the South Fork gauge got to 37 ft before it broke. Assuming there are some big time elevation and geographic reasons why, but the root of it is that they had ~50% lower water.
mccjames
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You also have to consider the water coming down off the hillside. Mystic has a pretty sizable creek and a road going up the hill that turned into a river.
Easy come, Easy go
Independence H-D
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If hart of the hills had been in session, it likely would have been worse than mystic. My understanding is the damage there is pretty total. Stewart got a lot of damage as well. It was out of session. As mentioned in another post, I'm certain that the creek at Mystic compounded the issue as well.
Sher Thing
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I went to Stewart when I was a kid. It definitely seems to me like most of the cabins are a lot further off the water than what I have seen from Mystic. I've been to Heart of the Hills before also. I do think those cabins are close to the river. I didn't realize those camps were out of session. Thank goodness if that is true.
ReelAg6
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dermdoc said:

Mary Grace's funeral was standing room only. Police did a cool thing by having pink bows on the back of their motorcycles and lined up as an honor guard. Pray for the parents.
Sending you guys prayers and love. I don't know you guys but I am absolutely heartbroken and hate it for you.
mcsatx
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aptexas said:

Anyone have perspective on why the camps along the North fork received less damage? Is the elevation significantly different there?

More rain along the south fork. I put together some additional information here: pxl.to/mystic-analysis
Independence H-D
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I haven't seen the damage at Stewart first hand. I am in contact with someone who has. You're right, Junior side is pretty far off the river. However, the elevation is pretty low and there's a pretty good bend just before it reaches Stewart property.

The senior side cabins might be a little higher but they are significantly closer.

My memory of the flood plan on the senior side was that we were supposed to head up Joy Bluff. The trail was right behind the senior side cabins.
Rascal
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mcsatx said:

aptexas said:

Anyone have perspective on why the camps along the North fork received less damage? Is the elevation significantly different there?

More rain along the south fork. I put together some additional information here: pxl.to/mystic-analysis

Very helpful analysis. Thank you.
Sher Thing
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That would make sense. I'd be surprised if the mess hall building, gymnasium, etc. made it as I remember those being pretty close to the river.
slammerag
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It's been a blur, but glad to hear the Heart of Hills camp was out of session. I was working in Hunt Friday and I saw at least 4 Heart of Hills shorts in debris. It's very difficult to see the kids clothing scattered everywhere.
71 jock
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skinny2001 said:

SUag said:

There will likely be a strong viable mass of return campers to places like La Junta regardless of location, but how can you think the new camper family pool will not be dramatically shrunk if kept where it is? First level research will go from one isolated child abuse story 20+ years ago to biblical death flood in the area as recent as it could be.

Personally, if I were a camp owner, I would move the camp to a non-flood risk lake front asap and try to get as much support from the alumni to help fund it and otherwise transition.



I think that's the only way they can continue. I imagine any of these camps couldn't renew their GL until all of the litigation works itself out.

And I'm not sure they could operate until the litigation without having to fight through some sort of injunction. I'm not an attorney (I'm sure it's obvious after you reading this)

But I bet the camps don't have the liquid assets to cover the hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions in legal fees needed to get through to the other side. Moving locations or drastically improving the locations in order for an insurance company to be satisfied I think will be the only way.

La junta and mystic have a very wealthy, connected and motivated alumni base so, who knows.

Camps are needed - but the world has changed and unfortunately this is another event that proves that point. It's just sad all around.




These camps aren't going anywhere. They will rebuild. I don't think most people understand the amount of wealth at camps like Mystic. Mystic families will not let this be the end of a camp that has given girls and families such joy for 100 years.
Complete Idiot
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71 jock said:

skinny2001 said:

SUag said:

There will likely be a strong viable mass of return campers to places like La Junta regardless of location, but how can you think the new camper family pool will not be dramatically shrunk if kept where it is? First level research will go from one isolated child abuse story 20+ years ago to biblical death flood in the area as recent as it could be.

Personally, if I were a camp owner, I would move the camp to a non-flood risk lake front asap and try to get as much support from the alumni to help fund it and otherwise transition.



I think that's the only way they can continue. I imagine any of these camps couldn't renew their GL until all of the litigation works itself out.

And I'm not sure they could operate until the litigation without having to fight through some sort of injunction. I'm not an attorney (I'm sure it's obvious after you reading this)

But I bet the camps don't have the liquid assets to cover the hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions in legal fees needed to get through to the other side. Moving locations or drastically improving the locations in order for an insurance company to be satisfied I think will be the only way.

La junta and mystic have a very wealthy, connected and motivated alumni base so, who knows.

Camps are needed - but the world has changed and unfortunately this is another event that proves that point. It's just sad all around.





These camps aren't going anywhere. They will rebuild. I don't think most people understand the amount of wealth at camps like Mystic. Mystic families will not let this be the end of a camp that has given girls and families such joy for 100 years.

Is the joy at these camps predicated on the elevation the dwelling units are built?

I agree they will, and should, be rebuilt. Mystic, and hopefully the other camps, own land that is out of the flood plain. Rebuilding higher means a bit further from the river, but I don't think that will impact what makes the camp special in any way.
Burdizzo
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Complete Idiot said:

71 jock said:

skinny2001 said:

SUag said:

There will likely be a strong viable mass of return campers to places like La Junta regardless of location, but how can you think the new camper family pool will not be dramatically shrunk if kept where it is? First level research will go from one isolated child abuse story 20+ years ago to biblical death flood in the area as recent as it could be.

Personally, if I were a camp owner, I would move the camp to a non-flood risk lake front asap and try to get as much support from the alumni to help fund it and otherwise transition.



I think that's the only way they can continue. I imagine any of these camps couldn't renew their GL until all of the litigation works itself out.

And I'm not sure they could operate until the litigation without having to fight through some sort of injunction. I'm not an attorney (I'm sure it's obvious after you reading this)

But I bet the camps don't have the liquid assets to cover the hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions in legal fees needed to get through to the other side. Moving locations or drastically improving the locations in order for an insurance company to be satisfied I think will be the only way.

La junta and mystic have a very wealthy, connected and motivated alumni base so, who knows.

Camps are needed - but the world has changed and unfortunately this is another event that proves that point. It's just sad all around.





These camps aren't going anywhere. They will rebuild. I don't think most people understand the amount of wealth at camps like Mystic. Mystic families will not let this be the end of a camp that has given girls and families such joy for 100 years.

Is the joy at these camps predicated on the elevation the dwelling units are built?

I agree they will, and should, be rebuilt. Mystic, and hopefully the other camps, own land that is out of the flood plain. Rebuilding higher means a bit further from the river, but I don't think that will impact what makes the camp special in any way.


Which flood plain?

I ask that rhetorically. The "flood plain" most people refer to is the 100-year flood plain. It is based on a small amount of statistical historical data, a boatload of modelling, and even bigger boatload of assumptions, and the judgment of a lot of well-meaning bureaucrats on what they feel is an acceptable level of risk, but it is anything but an absolute. In fact, it is probably more arbitrary than anything. So when everyone moves their structures above the 100-year flood plain, and another event happens where lives are lost, who carries the risk for that?

I am not saying camps should not be rebuilt. I just am bringing this up so that we all understand what we are talking about.
aptexas
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I was wondering the same, particularly about camps located along the North fork. Anyone have insight on why they received less damage? Is the elevation significantly different?
aptexas
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What a helpful resource! Thanks for compiling this, and putting it together in such a clean and simple way.
Burdizzo
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aptexas said:

I was wondering the same, particularly about camps located along the North fork. Anyone have insight on why they received less damage? Is the elevation significantly different?



I think it was because the deluge was concentrated in the South fork watershed.

You hardly hear about any flooding at places like Bear Creek Scout Reserve or Camp Waldemar, and those are just on the other side of the ridge a couple miles away
Independence H-D
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To be fair...

I'm not sure that NORAD is as secure as Waldamar...

I was only there a few times and it was a very long ago. I seem to remember these giant stone, dorm like structures and I don't recall them being very close to the river. We were impressed they had air conditioning and it was rumored, by teenage boys there for a dance, that they had butlers as well....
dermdoc
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ReelAg6 said:

dermdoc said:

Mary Grace's funeral was standing room only. Police did a cool thing by having pink bows on the back of their motorcycles and lined up as an honor guard. Pray for the parents.
Sending you guys prayers and love. I don't know you guys but I am absolutely heartbroken and hate it for you.


Thank you.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
aptexas
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To be transparent, my daughter attends Waldemar and I am wondering if the North fork typically floods less (because of elevation or other factors), or were they just lucky this time?
aptexas
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Thank you. Yes, they do have stone cabins but not sure how close they are to the river (as compared to other camps). No, no butlers .
Burdizzo
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aptexas said:

To be transparent, my daughter attends Waldemar and I am wondering if the North fork typically floods less (because of elevation or other factors), or were they just lucky this time?




I think it is probably just random chance. Google Earth is not highly accurate, but it will give you a general idea of elevations. The closest crossing on the North fork at Waldemar has an elevation of around 1818'. The closest crossing on the South fork near Mystic is about 1833'. I don't have the time at the moment to look up USGS maps, but that would be more accurate.

As I have hypothesized, I suspect the big torrent of rain came down in the South fork watershed which is why Mystic and La junta got the brunt and camps like Bear Creek, Waldemar, and Stewart suffered much less.

Rainfall intensity is very important in these events. I am trying to see if some of the private weather station networks like Ambient or Weather Underground have members in each watershed. I suspect the North fork got heavy rain. The South fork had a huge bucket dumped on it in an instant.
Independence H-D
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I asked a friend, who was my counselor my first year at Stewart in '79, about how high the waters got in 78 there.
txags92
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aptexas said:

To be transparent, my daughter attends Waldemar and I am wondering if the North fork typically floods less (because of elevation or other factors), or were they just lucky this time?


Yes, they were lucky. See the NWPS radar estimate of rainfall on the 4th. The white color is 10+ inches of rain. As you can see pretty much all of the south fork of the river got 10+ inches, while a smaller portion of the north fork got mostly 6-8". If that rain had been shifted a few miles north, the north fork would have taken the brunt of it.

Aggie Hunter
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I would like to donate 18 wheeler load of coastal hay to anyone in the hill country in need. If anyone one has contacts in need please send them to me.
Burdizzo
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What is that well-maintained property to the SE of Camp Mystic on Moore Road, and why would USACOE allow 4 dams along Cypress Creek there?
Ducks4brkfast
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Burdizzo said:

What is that well-maintained property to the SE of Camp Mystic on Moore Road, and why would USACOE allow 4 dams along Cypress Creek there?

If it's what I think you're referring to, the Eastlands own that as well.
Secolobo
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Think he's referring further upstream. Looks like Coolwater, glenn and susan youngkin...interesting.
Maybe the old camp arrowhead.

https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/texas/txwdce/5:2010cv00171/411216/18/
 
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