***Official Houston Astros 2025-26 Offseason Thread***

75,284 Views | 1480 Replies | Last: 30 min ago by agproducer
agproducer
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AG
Disagree. He did keep his bat in the zone, but he pulled his hips through with his hands dragging behind. He ended off-balance on his front foot -- almost lunging through it.
EastCoastAgNc
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AG
EastCoastAgNc
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tjack16
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EastCoastAgNc said:




That sounds like an alias for Ken
JDUB08AG
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tjack16 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:




That sounds like an alias for Ken



agproducer
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AG
Drunken Overseas Bettor said:

I'll ask my devil's advocate question I always ask.

If Yordan Alvarez had been healthy wire to wire and hit 61 HR this year, would you think he was on steroids?

Yordan's career high is 37 HR.

This is a good point -- but think about it -- Yordan isn't catching 120 games/year.

That can be hell on your body.

Cal vs other catchers:

Cal hit 60 HRs. He caught 119 games and DH'd 38 games for a total of 157 games. He had 705 PAs. The average is 1 HR every 11.75 PAs.

Salvador Perez hit 48 HR in 2021. He caught 120 games, DH for 40 games for a total of 160 games. He 665 PAs. One HR every 13.85 PAs.

Johnny Bench was next with 45 HRs in 1970. He caught 130 games, played OF for 17 games, and 5 at 1B for 152 games. He had 671 PAs. One HR every 14.9 PAs.

Cal vs old numbers:


Cal's lowest number for HRs compared to PA is just over 15. Before this season, he typically hit a HR about once every 17-18 PAs. If he hit one HR at his previous career best for HR/PA -- he would have hit 47. At Salvy's pace in 2021, Cal would have hit 50 HRs.

Then, look at his OPS+. He's never had a season higher than 122. This year, it's 169. His slugging (removing his first season where he had about 150 PAs and it was much lower) averaged .460. He averaged 20 doubles a season. His slug this year was .589 -- almost an increase of 130 points -- with consistency with doubles -- 24 this year. OPS went from .761 average to .948 -- an increase of almost 200 points.

BABip is around the same as previous years. He has increased his flyball percentage from 36.7% in 2024 to 41.8% this year. He's also becoming more of a pull hitter.

The change in approach may have caused the increase -- but the increases are SO severe and for a catcher. But -- you want people to believe the adjustments made that the plate have caused HR per PA to decrease by 4 PAs from your career best and more than 6 PAS from your average?

Cal vs other notable HR hitters:

Compare Cal HR/11.75 PA to:

Judge when he hit 62 HRs: HR/11.22 PAs
McGwire in 1998 when he hit 70 HR: HR/9.72 PA
Bonds hitting 73: HR/9.09 ABs
ARod in 2002 when he hit 57: HR/12.7 PAs
Brady Anderson when he hit 50: HR/13.74 PAs
Yordan in 2022 (when he hit 37): HR/15.2 PAs -- Cal's lowest number ever before this season.
Yordan in 2019 (369 Pas and 27 HR): HR/13.6 PAs

He beat his career season HR total (34) by 26 HR in just 80 more PAs. He plays catcher -- a position that is awful on your body.

His xHRs at T-Mobile park this year were 57. His previous career high for xHRs at T-Mobile was 30. No-doubter xHRs this year were 29. His previous high for no doubter xHR was 18.

I'm not saying definitively he is using, but it needs to be considered and explored. And -- I don't believe it is steroids. I think it is HGH to aid in recovery.
Drunken Overseas Bettor
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That's all well and good but it doesn't answer my simple question.

If Yordan hit 61 after never hitting more than 37, would you think he was on steroids?
txags92
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Drunken Overseas Bettor said:

That's all well and good but it doesn't answer my simple question.

If Yordan hit 61 after never hitting more than 37, would you think he was on steroids?

Not in today's game. I would think he was on HGH or something similar.
dixichkn
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AG
Not gonna lie. I'd be curious

I'm not sitting here saying he's 100% on something. But that one year spike is WILD. Now if he's consistently a 45-50 HR guy for the next 10 years then so be it. But this year sticks out like a sore thumb

Of course I'd love to see Yordan healthy for an entire season. Now THAT would be an anomaly
Marvin
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Drunken Overseas Bettor said:

That's all well and good but it doesn't answer my simple question.

If Yordan hit 61 after never hitting more than 37, would you think he was on steroids?


I think that requires some context. Is Yordan healthy and supported with some protection in the guys following him to the plate? If so, then I probably would not think this. He's a feared hitter. He's proven to be a huge bat and offensive threat. Was Raleigh ever considered that?

I think the error in your reasoning (just my opinion) is that the two were historically considered to be the same offensive player. I would disagree with that assumption. Whatever the reality may be (as in the stats you supplied), the perception is different.
agproducer
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Drunken Overseas Bettor said:

That's all well and good but it doesn't answer my simple question.

If Yordan hit 61 after never hitting more than 37, would you think he was on steroids?

No.

I would think shaving 2 PAs from your career high is reasonable.

Yordan's career average HR/PAs is 16.3. His career high -- 13.6 in 2019. If he had 705 PAs at his career pace, he'd have 43 HRs. At the high, he'd have 52. For Yordan to hit 61 HRs is the same number of PAs as Cal this year -- it would be HR/11.55 PA -- about 2 PAs off his career high. So -- we know he can get hot. (Yordan's numbers, I'm not including this year's 199 PAs or HRs as he was hurt or the 2020 season.)

Cal is about 4 PAs fewer per HR from his career high figure and 6 PAs from his career average (11.75 PA compared to career high 15.2 and career average of 17.7 PAs).

I also go back to the fact that all Yordan would have to do is hit and maybe play some OF. That is nowhere near as grueling as catching.
 
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