When you look at the odds, it's clear to see they leave plenty of room for **** to happen. The odds of 1/1 are very low even for the worst teams. You could have 14% odds in perpetuity and it still could take forever to come up 1/1. On the flipside, someone hitting 2% odds like Dallas once in a blue moon isn't crazy either. That's all this is. I do not believe the lottery is rigged.
*** Official 2025 - 2026 Dallas Mavericks Season Thread ***
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Last: 4 days ago by M.C. Swag
Now ask me if Dallas proposed that Luka deal to Charlotte, would Adam Silver have vetoed that nonsense? Probably so. LA? Hell no. But the lottery outcomes are just the goofy-ass system they've created, and it's only rigged to the extent that these ****ty franchises still have low odds. That's the "rigging" - it's in front of your face by how it's set up, not behind closed doors.
He wouldn't have vetoed a single trade proposed by one team to another team agreed to by both. Doesn't matter what teams they were or what the deal was. The NBA has only ever vetoed a single trade as a consequence of the balance of players being traded and that's because the NBA was the de facto owner of the team trading a star player. That trade prevented that star player going to the Los Angeles Lakers at a time it would have made the Lakers the clear championship favorite.
They have zero interest in whether a trade is balanced or fair from a talent perspective, just whether or not it means salary requirements, pick trading limitations, and timing (i.e. if they discover it was negotiated during a closed trading window, or if it was submitted after a trading window closed).
The lottery is not rigged. EY has a reputational risk. The lottery ball manufacturer has even greater reputational risk. If it is demonstrated that their machines are rigged for the NBA their entire business is done and they do WAY more revenue by having a basic monopoly on lottery draws across the country.
They have zero interest in whether a trade is balanced or fair from a talent perspective, just whether or not it means salary requirements, pick trading limitations, and timing (i.e. if they discover it was negotiated during a closed trading window, or if it was submitted after a trading window closed).
The lottery is not rigged. EY has a reputational risk. The lottery ball manufacturer has even greater reputational risk. If it is demonstrated that their machines are rigged for the NBA their entire business is done and they do WAY more revenue by having a basic monopoly on lottery draws across the country.
Suggs is a good shout.
It's hard because we don't really know what Kyrie's value is. Would the return be another semi-distressed asset, which I thinks includes Suggs because of his injury history. I looked at teams that aren't quite complete teams that could really use a primary ball handler for their clutch minutes. I'm also not even looking at salaries, that's too much work lol.
Houston could use him, but they wouldn't give up Durant, and do Durant and Kyrie want to play together again? Reed Sheppard is the prototypical Mav of the past 30 years if you know what I'm sayin lol.
Phoenix needs someone like him, but would the return only be Jalen Green? I'm completely out on Green, I just think he's a losing player. Dillon Brooks? Guy decided he's Demar Derozan with 3 point shooting this season lol.
The Pelicans could use him if they want help now and think Fears could use the mentorship. Would the return be Trey Murphy (probably too valuable) or would it be Zion if they wanted to move on?
Would Dallas do a Ja swap with Memphis?
Atlanta would probably love to have a guy like Kyrie, but they don't really have anybody worth a straight swap unless they throw in a pick. Someone like Dyson Daniels who is awful offensively lol. They will probably be drafting a guard this year in the draft, so Kyrie can help with their new guy.
It's hard because we don't really know what Kyrie's value is. Would the return be another semi-distressed asset, which I thinks includes Suggs because of his injury history. I looked at teams that aren't quite complete teams that could really use a primary ball handler for their clutch minutes. I'm also not even looking at salaries, that's too much work lol.
Houston could use him, but they wouldn't give up Durant, and do Durant and Kyrie want to play together again? Reed Sheppard is the prototypical Mav of the past 30 years if you know what I'm sayin lol.
Phoenix needs someone like him, but would the return only be Jalen Green? I'm completely out on Green, I just think he's a losing player. Dillon Brooks? Guy decided he's Demar Derozan with 3 point shooting this season lol.
The Pelicans could use him if they want help now and think Fears could use the mentorship. Would the return be Trey Murphy (probably too valuable) or would it be Zion if they wanted to move on?
Would Dallas do a Ja swap with Memphis?
Atlanta would probably love to have a guy like Kyrie, but they don't really have anybody worth a straight swap unless they throw in a pick. Someone like Dyson Daniels who is awful offensively lol. They will probably be drafting a guard this year in the draft, so Kyrie can help with their new guy.
If anyone hasn't cast their vote yet, I think flagg will get their vote after tonight
Rough night for the Kon truthers lol.
That was abysmal from Kon tonight. While I like Kon a lot and think he's great, my personal opinion is that the turnaround in Charlotte is probably 50% LaMelo being healthy and deciding to grow up a bit on the court, 30% Brandon Miller taking a massive jump to becoming a legit dude more nights than not, and 20% Kon being a complete sniper shooter. Mikes Bridges and Diabate also fit incredibly well together and are defensive stalwarts.
It's a big difference knocking down regular season 3s against crap teams and hitting them against good teams and knocking them down when teams game plan to stop you. For Kon this is his percentage from deep against the top teams in the league.
Det - 37.9
Bos - 36.4
NY - 30.3
OKC - 58.3
SA - 28.6
Den - 28.6
The OKC numbers are skewed by low volume and the weird January 5th game where the Hornets blew out the Thunder.
I think he's a fine player, but his ceiling is limited until he shows he has the ability to create off the dribble. If he can figure that out, he has peak Klay Thompson potential.
Det - 37.9
Bos - 36.4
NY - 30.3
OKC - 58.3
SA - 28.6
Den - 28.6
The OKC numbers are skewed by low volume and the weird January 5th game where the Hornets blew out the Thunder.
I think he's a fine player, but his ceiling is limited until he shows he has the ability to create off the dribble. If he can figure that out, he has peak Klay Thompson potential.
Looks like the mavericks got rid of a bigggg problem! Good for them! The truth will always come to light.
— Kyle Van Noy (@KVN_03) April 16, 2026
Had no idea the Mavs fired the Director of health and performance this week until I saw this from KVN being retweeted. Apparently the same guy was in New England when KVN was there and they had a ton of health issues.
Hopefully we can get back on track in this area.
Is there a combination of groveling and/or money whipping that could convince Casey Smith to come back? I think it's obvious by now who must have been the problem in his conflict with Nico.
Charlotte getting bent tf over. Paper tigers.
Tksymm7 said:
Charlotte getting bent tf over. Paper tigers.
Kon Knueppel in the Play-In Tournament
— Hater Report (@HaterReport) April 18, 2026
2 Games
17 TOTAL POINTS
5/22 FG
1/12 3P
KON MAN pic.twitter.com/zqjlZKOjqp
I think we will know on draft tie breakers today.
I believe we should also be hoping for the Suns to win their tiebreakers against Orlando and Philly. We have the 2nd round pick, so could be a 2 spot difference in the middle of Round 2.
Normally would care a lot less about that range of the draft, but this draft is so deep, there will be a guy there.
Normally would care a lot less about that range of the draft, but this draft is so deep, there will be a guy there.
Lottery tiebreakers:
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) April 20, 2026
Utah No. 4
Sacramento No. 5
New Orleans No. 7
Dallas No. 8 https://t.co/Gnx9n1V7Qm
Vessel said:Lottery tiebreakers:
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) April 20, 2026
Utah No. 4
Sacramento No. 5
New Orleans No. 7
Dallas No. 8 https://t.co/Gnx9n1V7Qm
Now we pray for a miracle. What a ****ing disaster.
Silver lining is we still have effectively the same odds at top 4. Just higher chances for disaster.
20 days until we are rewarded for the ethical tank.
20 days until we are rewarded for the ethical tank.
One of the reasons I just don't care is because after the perceived top 4, if the Mavs believe say Wagler is the guy they like and want the most, then I think this draft being so deep lends itself to being able to move up and down a lot easier than normal years.
Every team could have their guy they like the best, and moving up and down becomes slightly easier. Also, the Mavs imo are the most "one player away" type of team in the lottery imo. Meaning none of the teams around them or above them are going to be transformed completely by one of the guards, and again if they like Wagler the best I think that makes teams a bit more willing to move up and down.
Again, the Mavs do not have their own picks after this season and they likely will be closer to a .500 team next year anyways. If you really like a guy go get them.
Every team could have their guy they like the best, and moving up and down becomes slightly easier. Also, the Mavs imo are the most "one player away" type of team in the lottery imo. Meaning none of the teams around them or above them are going to be transformed completely by one of the guards, and again if they like Wagler the best I think that makes teams a bit more willing to move up and down.
Again, the Mavs do not have their own picks after this season and they likely will be closer to a .500 team next year anyways. If you really like a guy go get them.
I think the Wizards and Jazz also think they are one player away from serious contention.
Jazz now have
George
Bailey
Lauri
Jackson
Wizards have
Trae
George
Sarr
AD
+ Tre, Coulibaly, Bub, Riley
Both of these teams should be easily in the playoffs next year and one more good wing from this draft probably means they are a top 5 seed next year assuming injury health... which is a big assumption with AD.
Jazz now have
George
Bailey
Lauri
Jackson
Wizards have
Trae
George
Sarr
AD
+ Tre, Coulibaly, Bub, Riley
Both of these teams should be easily in the playoffs next year and one more good wing from this draft probably means they are a top 5 seed next year assuming injury health... which is a big assumption with AD.
Fair point on the Jazz. I would push back on the Wizards a bit, but mostly because I think they are disgusting, trash and incompetent (and they are built on chop stick durability players). I also think they'll have the No. 1 pick this year. Feels like it's time for a No. 1 odds team gets the first pick again.
The Jazz might be the biggest wild card in the lottery though so fair point. As currently constructed they don't really need a PG at all, but they also don't really need a big PF/C. Dybantsa and Peterson are probably the two best fits for them. Markkanen is likely getting traded though, so really who knows what direction they go.
The Jazz might be the biggest wild card in the lottery though so fair point. As currently constructed they don't really need a PG at all, but they also don't really need a big PF/C. Dybantsa and Peterson are probably the two best fits for them. Markkanen is likely getting traded though, so really who knows what direction they go.
But actual serious contention generally needs a All-NBA 1st Team level player or someone close to it with very fw exceptions (14 spurs, 04 Pistons.)
Lauri and George aren't close to that. AD and Trae aren't there.
Maybe who they get in this draft can become that. They have some players that make sense together, but both have valid injury concerns and lack of top end talent.
Lauri and George aren't close to that. AD and Trae aren't there.
Maybe who they get in this draft can become that. They have some players that make sense together, but both have valid injury concerns and lack of top end talent.
I agree, that's why I said that they both probably think they are one player away.
The collection of talent that each has on the roster makes a little bit of sense now, and it's not impossible to see them putting a season together like the Raptors did this year with a similar mix of so so talent and one really good player in Barnes.
True title contention as you mention is more dependent on someone on the roster making a serious star turn and becoming an all-NBA level guy. (And of course availability/durability)
The collection of talent that each has on the roster makes a little bit of sense now, and it's not impossible to see them putting a season together like the Raptors did this year with a similar mix of so so talent and one really good player in Barnes.
True title contention as you mention is more dependent on someone on the roster making a serious star turn and becoming an all-NBA level guy. (And of course availability/durability)
I think the Jazz are pretty close depending on who they get in this draft. If they get Dybantsa, Peterson and/or Boozer I think they are easily a top 6-8 seed imo depending on injuries. A core of George, Bailey, Boozer and JJJ is very good (I think Markkanen is 100% getting traded. Heck I think a core of George, Wagler, Bailey, and JJJ is still very good. I think Utah at least has a few guys I think could turn into stars.
The Wizards though I personally just do not see. Trae and AD don't do it for me. Sarr, Tre and Coulibaly are solid but nothing more imo. They NEED a Peterson or Dybantsa the most.
The Wizards though I personally just do not see. Trae and AD don't do it for me. Sarr, Tre and Coulibaly are solid but nothing more imo. They NEED a Peterson or Dybantsa the most.
M.C. Swag said:Vessel said:Lottery tiebreakers:
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) April 20, 2026
Utah No. 4
Sacramento No. 5
New Orleans No. 7
Dallas No. 8 https://t.co/Gnx9n1V7Qm
Now we pray for a miracle. What a ****ing disaster.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not convinced there is a definitive gap between any of these guys: Acuff, Wagler, Burries, Philon, Flemings, and Brown. They all are good prospects with upside but you can point out flaws for each of them as well. Maybe they will all be good NBA players, maybe they will all fail, who knows.
It's frustrating, but in the end I can't fault the Mavs for how this played out. They didn't really tank the same way other teams did, they were mostly just a terribly constructed team with some good players on the roster. At this point they have ~1/3 chance of top 4, ~1/3 chance of #8, and ~1/3 chance of 9 or worse. Let's see how it plays out, but even if they move down we won't really know if it mattered for a year or so after we see these guys play in the NBA.
Cooper Flagg was also never going to allows this team to be a top four worst team in the league. Tbh I think we're pretty lucky to be in the top 8 considering a lot of what happened this year.
I also share your sentiment regarding the pack of guards. I think they all have strengths and weaknesses (but are all very good), and don't think there is a major gap between them.
I also share your sentiment regarding the pack of guards. I think they all have strengths and weaknesses (but are all very good), and don't think there is a major gap between them.
The Jazz are weird because they have pieces that make sense, but then they have major injury concerns (Lauri, JJJ and Kessler all fall into this category) they have cap concerns (JJJ+Lauri are both overpaid and Kessler will get paid this year because Lakers want him) and while JJJ and Kessler are great defenders, the rest of the team is absolute garbage. I think they can be in the 42-50 win range, but one of those teams that real contenders aren't actually worried about playing in the playoffs.
I like the Wizards young core, especially if they get a PG like DNPeterson, but they have AD injury concerns and Trae exploitation concerns. I like KyShawn and Sarr, but don't think either is becoming an All-NBA player.
I like the Wizards young core, especially if they get a PG like DNPeterson, but they have AD injury concerns and Trae exploitation concerns. I like KyShawn and Sarr, but don't think either is becoming an All-NBA player.
Tksymm7 said:
I think the Jazz are pretty close depending on who they get in this draft. If they get Dybantsa, Peterson and/or Boozer I think they are easily a top 6-8 seed imo depending on injuries. A core of George, Bailey, Boozer and JJJ is very good (I think Markkanen is 100% getting traded. Heck I think a core of George, Wagler, Bailey, and JJJ is still very good. I think Utah at least has a few guys I think could turn into stars.
The Wizards though I personally just do not see. Trae and AD don't do it for me. Sarr, Tre and Coulibaly are solid but nothing more imo. They NEED a Peterson or Dybantsa the most.
Peterson and Wagler are the perfect fits for them, but we all know their ownership is obsessed with Dybantsa. I think their lineup is way too big if they add Dybantsa and I think he's a weird fit with Keyonte. Maybe Lauri is on the move.
I don't see Keyonte as an Ainge player and think he could be traded instead of giving him a quarter of the cap. He's been crazy offensively for them the past couple years, but he's also in the conversation for worst defender in the league (0 percentile D-DARKO and DRAPM each of the past 2 seasons). If they end up with AJ, I could see them flipping Keyonte for more future picks and trying to get a floor general PG who is more solid defensively.
jeffdjohnson said:M.C. Swag said:Vessel said:Lottery tiebreakers:
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) April 20, 2026
Utah No. 4
Sacramento No. 5
New Orleans No. 7
Dallas No. 8 https://t.co/Gnx9n1V7Qm
Now we pray for a miracle. What a ****ing disaster.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not convinced there is a definitive gap between any of these guys: Acuff, Wagler, Burries, Philon, Flemings, and Brown. They all are good prospects with upside but you can point out flaws for each of them as well. Maybe they will all be good NBA players, maybe they will all fail, who knows.
Yeah some of these guys have such polarizing "what ifs" that things could get wonky. We'll have to see how the lottery plays out, but team needs vary drastically also. Just assuming GS, MIL, and LAC (pick goes to OKC) don't move up, there are still Atlanta (NO's pick), Dallas, Indiana, Utah, and possibly WAS that think they can be good very soon with early picks. How does that impact draft strategy and ideology?
If Mavs end up 8-11 pick, is there any thought to package that pick and 30? If so, what does it yield? I'm not sure if there is a chart like the NFL has. It may be better to take two players, but I was wondering if there was any consideration to move up what it would take. For example, if we need to move up 2-3 spots can you do that by throwing in a second? I can't remember what the value of various picks is.
It's not usually that simple in the NBA. Mavs traded a pretty lightly protected first round pick to move from 5 to 3 to get Luka. It's probably going to be hard or very costly to move up in this draft because it's so talented at the top. You have to be in the top 4 to get a top end guy, but nobody in the top 4 would likely be willing to pass up taking one of those guys. Is it even worth it to trade from 8 to 5 when that group is generally considered interchangeable? Moving from 11 to top 8 will be costly when you are moving in to a higher tier.
Pick 30 this year doesn't help you move up, in my opinion. Usually late firsts are packaged with players in order to dump salary. They aren't considered valuable. I believe first round picks are guaranteed contracts, so some teams don't even want to make a pick late in the 1st.
I think the Mavs should be trying to take a swing on a player anyway in that spot. Maybe you can package the second round pick or a future second to go get someone at 26-27.
Pick 30 this year doesn't help you move up, in my opinion. Usually late firsts are packaged with players in order to dump salary. They aren't considered valuable. I believe first round picks are guaranteed contracts, so some teams don't even want to make a pick late in the 1st.
I think the Mavs should be trying to take a swing on a player anyway in that spot. Maybe you can package the second round pick or a future second to go get someone at 26-27.
jeffdjohnson said:M.C. Swag said:Vessel said:Lottery tiebreakers:
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) April 20, 2026
Utah No. 4
Sacramento No. 5
New Orleans No. 7
Dallas No. 8 https://t.co/Gnx9n1V7Qm
Now we pray for a miracle. What a ****ing disaster.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not convinced there is a definitive gap between any of these guys: Acuff, Wagler, Burries, Philon, Flemings, and Brown. They all are good prospects with upside but you can point out flaws for each of them as well. Maybe they will all be good NBA players, maybe they will all fail, who knows.
I agree they all have flaws, but I'd rather be in the catbird seat of selecting my top choice of flawed propsects vs having that choice made for me. Instead of 'choosing' Acuff, Philon, Wagler, etc we are likely to only get whoever is left of the litter. I hate that.
Quote:
It's frustrating, but in the end I can't fault the Mavs for how this played out. They didn't really tank the same way other teams did, they were mostly just a terribly constructed team with some good players on the roster. At this point they have ~1/3 chance of top 4, ~1/3 chance of #8, and ~1/3 chance of 9 or worse. Let's see how it plays out, but even if they move down we won't really know if it mattered for a year or so after we see these guys play in the NBA.
haha the bold part is precisely why I fault the Mavs. We shoulda cut Middleton the day after trading for him and that would have saved us 1 win with that move alone. The Mavs could have also been much more ruthless with who played in 4th quarters and playing 10 day contract players (a guy like Kawamura who has no business being on the NBA floor).
M.C. Swag said:jeffdjohnson said:M.C. Swag said:Vessel said:Lottery tiebreakers:
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) April 20, 2026
Utah No. 4
Sacramento No. 5
New Orleans No. 7
Dallas No. 8 https://t.co/Gnx9n1V7Qm
Now we pray for a miracle. What a ****ing disaster.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not convinced there is a definitive gap between any of these guys: Acuff, Wagler, Burries, Philon, Flemings, and Brown. They all are good prospects with upside but you can point out flaws for each of them as well. Maybe they will all be good NBA players, maybe they will all fail, who knows.
I agree they all have flaws, but I'd rather be in the catbird seat of selecting my top choice of flawed propsects vs having that choice made for me. Instead of 'choosing' Acuff, Philon, Wagler, etc we are likely to only get whoever is left of the litter. I hate that.Quote:
It's frustrating, but in the end I can't fault the Mavs for how this played out. They didn't really tank the same way other teams did, they were mostly just a terribly constructed team with some good players on the roster. At this point they have ~1/3 chance of top 4, ~1/3 chance of #8, and ~1/3 chance of 9 or worse. Let's see how it plays out, but even if they move down we won't really know if it mattered for a year or so after we see these guys play in the NBA.
haha the bold part is precisely why I fault the Mavs. We shoulda cut Middleton the day after trading for him and that would have saved us 1 win with that move alone. The Mavs could have also been much more ruthless with who played in 4th quarters and playing 10 day contract players (a guy like Kawamura who has no business being on the NBA floor).
it's honestly criminal that we played middleton so much. Good for Kris...but FFS, ruined our tankathon. We could be a lot more comfy with another loss or more
So Rob Williams makes 3s now? lol
Wemby concussion protocol
Vessel said:
So Rob Williams makes 3s now? lol
39% from three this year?! What in the world.
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