My annual Oscar picks:
I have seen all the acting and screenplay nominations, all the shorts, 9 of 10 Best Picture nominees (have not seen F1 yet, which has no chance), and 3 of the 5 foreign films. I won't make picks for the technical categories or the animated and long form documentaries, which I didn't see.
Best PictureShould win: Sentimental Value
Will win: One Battle After Another
Best DirectorShould win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Best ActorShould win: Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Will win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Best ActressShould win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Will win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Best Supporting ActorShould win: Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
Will win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (O/U on the number of insufferable things he says during his acceptance speech is 1.5-take the over)
Best Supporting ActressShould win: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Will win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Best Original ScreenplayShould win: It Was Just an Accident
Will win: Sinners
Best Adapted ScreenplayShould and will win: One Battle After Another
Best International FeatureShould and will win: Sentimental Value
(Didn't see Sirat, will probably see it this week at my local cinema, or The Voice of Hind Rajab)
Best CastingShould and will win: Sinners
Best Original ScoreShould and will win: Sinners
Best SongShould win: "I Lied to You", Sinners
Will win: "Golden", K Pop Demon Hunters
Best Documentary ShortWeak year. This category will come down to a couple of self-congratulatory pieces about journalism.
Should win: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Will win: All the Empty Rooms
Special mention: Perfectly a Strangeness: if you've ever found yourself saying, man, I really wish they would make more silent movies where some donkeys walk around aimlessly for 15 minutes, have I got the film for you!
Best Live Action ShortThe likely winner is so ridiculously pretentious that Michael DeSanta should be watching it in an arthouse cinema in Los Santos.
Should win: The Singers
Will win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Most enjoyable: A Friend of Dorothy, unless you can't get enough of menstruation jokes, in which case Jane Austen's Period Drama
Best Animated ShortShould win: The Three Sisters
Will win: Butterfly
Most enjoyable: Forevergreen
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