t - cam said:
Not sure if it's true but heard the new map may have created quite a few new swing seats.
I don't think that's the case. If you have a source, I'd love to look at it.
If any swing districts were created, it's from former Democrat leans.
Here is what the new districts would have looked like in 2024. Let's say a margin of 20 or less makes it a swing district (I don't agree, but to be generous with the definition)
1: Trump +49.5
2: Trump +21.9
3: Trump +23.3
4: Trump +24.6
5: Trump +21.5
6: Trump +23
7: Harris +24
8: Trump +25.2
9: Trump +15.2 (Al Green)
10: Trump +22.6
11: Trump +34.3
12: Trump +23.8
13: Trump +46.1
14: Trump +28.2
15: Trump +17.9 (De La Cruz)
16: Harris +16.3 (Escobar)
17: Trump +21.4
18: Harris +54.1
19: Trump +51.6
20: Harris +28.5
21: Trump +21.7
22: Trump +20.7
23: Trump +15 (Gonzales)
24: Trump +16.1 (Van Duyne)
25: Trump +24
26: Trump +23.8
27: Trump +21.3
28: Trump +10.4 (Cuellar)
29: Harris +29.7
30: Harris +47
31: Trump +21.8
32: Trump +17.7
33: Harris +32.6
34: Trump +10.1 (Gonzalez)
36: Trump +33.6
37: Harris +56.2
38: Trump +20.4
Here's what happened in the actual races in 2024 from the new potential "swing" districts
TX-9 was +44 Harris. So it went from solid Dem to swing, lean GOP.
Delacruz won TX-15 by 14. It's more GOP in new map
Escobar won TX-16 by 19. It's now less Dem.
Gonzales won TX-23 by 11 (3 candidates). It's now slightly more GOP
Van Duyne won TX-24 by 19. So it looks like this one might be a little bit less GOP. Based on my out of the area, I would not call the new map "swing." Far from it. But I would refer to someone from the area on that.
TX-28 & TX-34 went Trump president but Democrat Congress. So they were already swing districts (for 1 election) but now drawn more GOP
The only question to me is whether these South Texas is the districts are actually moving Republican or if it was just a Trump effect. If it's the latter, then it just reverts back. There was no "new" swing district created.
Source on how the new districts would have voted in 2024:
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/30/texas-redistricting-congressional-maps-house-republicans/#:~:text=In%20the%20Houston%20area%2C%20the,have%20won%20it%20by%2015%25.