You're right that they're not linear, and y'all are both right about the PSR tricks. And thinking about it more, at some point contracts are so long that they're counterproductive from the standpoint of adding value to make a player untouchable because it raises the expectations of the player for their next contract. I.e. you either have to match their disgusting contract length or give an enormous raise on a shorter contract to lure the player. That has to hurt fee valuation for players that are already surplus to requirements.

So I'll concede that it may not be a factor here much. It's just a pet peeve of mine when people ignore contract length and are somehow surprised by fee differences.

Our crappy contracts have been so bad, sometimes there's actually an inverse relationship. Exhibit A: Jadon Sancho (I hope we finally sell him, at least; could be just another loan and his contract ends, I guess) (Edit: Put another way, and with a player more fans actually like, I think we might have gotten more interest from Rashford if he only had a year left on his contract; 30M option is mainly due to his wages).

Snapdragon Cup winners. LFG!

Hojlund didn't even play? Clearest sign yet that United intend to sell him in August. Bad move in my opinion. Everyone says Mbeumo or Cunha can play forward but I'm skeptical. But the fact that seems preferred to Hojlund is likely the nail in the coffin for him.

Athletic reporting that AC Milan are interested in Hojlund, most likely on loan. United may prefer a loan that covers his wages over a straight sale in the hopes he increases his value after a year on loan ala Antony. Although Antony is also a cautionary tale as he apparently refuses to play anywhere other than Real Sociedad thereby kneecapping any value he generated while on loan.

I would like to go on record again as saying this is a bad idea. United are repeating the same mistake and putting too much expectation/burden on Sesko. Cunha and Mbeumo are not adequate options at forward and Zirkzee and Chido are not a fit due to skillset/inexperience. Hope I'm wrong.

Well, not to harp on it, but I would sell Hojlund. And I say that as someone who really wanted it to work. Barada has said that players should generally get two years to make it work, and if it doesn't, move them on. First year was mixed, second year was awful. Zirkzee was also more bad than good last year, but it has only been one year, and he did show more with his linkup play last year than Hojlund really did in any phase. Also, Amorim was visibly annoyed at Hojlund when the camera would cut to him last year. (On the other hand, in fairness, he did sub Zirkzee at halftime in that game at OT where Zirkzee famously got booed, so it's not like Amorim has only been frustrated with Hojlund). One of the two has to go; if they've picked Hojlund, I think it's hard to paint it as a huge injustice.

It's not a great measure of value (at all) but Transfermarkt pegs Hojlund's value at 35M euros. Romano is saying Milan are prepared to meet a 45M option, 6M loan fee. I'd like to see that be an obligation (a real one, not a Chelsea one, ie, no cheap outs), which would be almost certainly cause the fee to go down. But, remember the Martial loan disaster where he barely played and came back unsalable.

Some reports that Leipzig might still be interested in a regular transfer, but discussions didn't advance because he wasn't interested in leaving then.

Anyway, I feel bad for him, I like him, I believe the reports that he was a fan of United growing up, and he hasn't done anything overtly jerk-ish like Garnacho. But, yeah, I think it's time for him to move. If nothing else, he needs to get his career back on track.

🚨 AC Milan have started discussing via intermediaries numbers of Rasmus Højlund deal.

Understand these are details: €6m loan fee, €45m buy option clause, salary covered.

⚠️ No green light to exit from the player yet, as Højlund insists on staying even after 0 minutes today. pic.twitter.com/k1XR7t0t9a

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 9, 2025

10 EPL goals...16 in total in his first year at the age of 20 (when he started the season). That is objectively at least a slightly above average season for a 20 year old forward who is the sole option at forward for a club that started the season with expectations of a top 4 finish. It seems to me that his horrible season two has erased whatever promise was held in his first season and then some. Which doesn't make any sense to me. Maybe if he was 29 in his first season but certainly not at his age. Footballers rarely, if ever, peak when they are 20.

Dre_00 said:

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10 EPL goals...16 in total in his first year at the age of 20 (when he started the season). That is objectively at least a slightly above average season for a 20 year old forward who is the sole option at forward for a club that started the season with expectations of a top 4 finish. It seems to me that his horrible season two has erased whatever promise was held in his first season and then some. Which doesn't make any sense to me. Maybe if he was 29 in his first season but certainly not at his age. Footballers rarely, if ever, peak when they are 20.

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Meh, if the manager who sees him every day at training and knows if he is playing in the system well or not doesn't value him then I tend to err on the side of the manager.

Goals are part of the equation but his ability to help the team advance the ball into dangerous areas is another. I am sure he will move on and have a wonderful career, but he doesn't seem to fit well in Amorim's system.

That's really the only reason in the "sell him" column. And maybe that's enough. United clearly abandoned Ratcliffe's "we're going to build a club philosophy and find managers that fit it" the second they hired Amorim. They've effectively rolled the dice in the hopes they land on the Portuguese SAF. Regardless, I sure wish we had someone behind Sesko in case he cracks. Or even if he doesn't crack...just gets injured.

I mean, there are a lot of forwards getting moved (or in danger of getting moved) that have scored more goals:

Jackson, 14/10
Nunez, 11/5
Richarlison, 11/4
J. Pedro, 9/10 (Brighton though)

Ideally, he would have been a bench player. But we paid a starter fee, he started, and 10-ish goals just isn't really enough to keep your spot safe in traditional top 6 clubs. It's an OK number, it's not great, and it's not enough to keep you safe if you follow it with a bad number.

Well one could argue Amorim's system is the system and Hojlund just doesn't fit it. I mean I am thankful every day that the club didn't stay with the ETH system as the club's system after he left.

Hojlund is not built for the system Amorim runs. Amorim might prefer the depth of the 9s over a plug in at the 10, so not sure Hojlund would be the guy even if there was an injury.

Seems there is real smoke with Baleba now. Rumors We are negotiating personal terms with him. I don't believe that would be happening if we weren't confident of getting a deal done with Brighton.

I don't think personal terms means that much because he's on such a cheap contract any big team could agree personal terms without too many problems. People are saying 100M transfer costs, which sounds like more rumor than fact. I like him… but I don't think I 100M like him, not yet, anyway. Sounds like an Ed Woodward "We can do things other teams can only dream of" deal if we went that high.

But maybe I'm just cheap, I don't know.

Chelsea's insane transfer policy
26...unlikely to improve
28...unlikely to improve
Moved due to success not failure

Hojlund's fee is mostly irrelevant. It was widely known when he was bought that he would be a project who required development (Sesko will be too).

Really the only valid reason to sell is that Amorim doesn't rate him. Seems to me he is at least a better fit in his system than Zirkzee but clearly I'm in the minority.

Ok, what are the list of players that chased a 10 goal year with a non-injury <5 goal year where they played the majority of games? If you want to distinguish those, fine, who are the success stories he is supposed to be like?

Go look at the top 25 20 yd old goal scorers in the EPL list (I'd copy/paste it but the formatting is horrible).

Hojlund is 15th on the list.

He scored more goals per minute at 20 than Rashford, and not far behind Rooney. There are players like Rooney, Rashford, and Saka on the list. There are also players like Nicklas Bendtner and Dele Alli on the list.

I don't know for sure which category Hojlund will end up in. All I'm saying is that I would not write him off as the next Nicklas Bendtner after one (1) horrible season in which his team regressed from 8th to 15th, no one played well (except Bruno) and the entire team was being asked to play a formation and tactic that none of them had any familiarity with w/o any proper bedding in period. I would be much more understanding of the "dump him" POV if those extenuating circumstances didn't exist and he scored 4 goals at 21.

But it's very peculiar to me that Hojlund posting a season very comparable to Rashford's at the age of 20 didn't buy him enough grace to sustain one (1) horrible season...a season in which the entire club from top down was such a ****show that it ended with its worst ever finish in EPL...by a massive margin.

To add to all of this, remember that Hojlund missed the early part of the season with the hamstring injury in that preseason game. So who knows how much of his year 2 decline was due to that.

So that's a long way of saying, "I can't think of any examples, but I have hope."

And, by the way, I don't hate Hojlund. Far from it. But one center forward has to go, and Zirkzee was slightly better. And it appears he is the manager's pick to be retained. Honestly, in that situation, Hojlund's best shot at staying long term is to accept a loan with a pure option but no pre-contract agreement, do undeniably well on the loan, and come back. It isn't staying at the club and hoping for third and fourth choice minutes.

more rumors we are about to put together an initial offer for Baleba. 85mm pounds plus 15mm in add ons.

I told you there was more to this. I'm still putting this as a long shot. i think we will know in the next day or 2 how long the legs are on this.

by the way, what kind of massive wages were those tealadies on that we can even talk about affording this? lol

Gianluigi Donnarumma would be interesting...

PSG excluded him from the UEFA Super Cup squad. Won't sign a new deal. He can leave on a free in 2026 if no one signs him now.

planoaggie123 said:

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Gianluigi Donnarumma would be interesting...

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I saw this rumor and without European play I cannot imagine he would agree to this. He's headed back to Italy if PSG can find someone with $$ to spend.

Showstopper said:

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So that's a long way of saying, "I can't think of any examples, but I have hope."

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Lol, no, you're right. I can't think of any players who scored 10 goals at 20 and 4 goals at 21...who were Danish, with blonde hair, and with twin brothers named Emil and Oscar. But then again, there are only 6 players in the entirety of EPL history who scored exactly 10 goals at 20 so you know, maybe you're being a little obtuse.

Mathguy64 said:

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planoaggie123 said:

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Gianluigi Donnarumma would be interesting...

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I saw this rumor and without European play I cannot imagine he would agree to this. He's headed back to Italy if PSG can find someone with $$ to spend.

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My only thought on this is I wonder if PSG would be apt to do a cheaper transfer just so he doesn't walk to Real Madrid for free. That's ignoring whether Donnarumma would agree to come to United.

I don't think anyone has bullied Brighton into selling a player in the last 5 years at a valuation they weren't comfortable with. I highly doubt United will be the first.

My understanding (can't remember where I read it) is that Brighton would want 100m+ (base) because their planning calls for Baleba's likely replacements to be ready no earlier than next season. If they don't have a player they feel like they can plug into Baleba's spot on their roster, then it will be extremely difficult to get them to agree to a favorable fee because they will have 3 weeks to find it and it would need to be a relatively ready made replacement which isn't exactly their style. I'll be shocked if this happens.

Agreed I would be shocked as well. Just saying I believe serious negotiations are happening not just a tire kicking.

🚨 Man Utd are planning to put forward an offer for Carlos Baleba this week.

I understand it’s in the region of £85m guaranteed with around £15m addons.

Work to be done over the structure but this presents a £100m package, with the player also showing his desire for the move…

— Ross Harwood (@RossHarwood_) August 11, 2025

Wild guess/conjecture/reading the tea leaves...

I think the Donnarumma rumors are a bunch of hot air. United recently re-signed Vitek through 2028 with a club option for 2029. He's on loan at Bristol City in the Championship...started their first game which was a surprising 4-1 win.

Seems like they want to create a path for Vitek. Or at least not completely shut it. Donnarumma would completely shut it as he's still only 26. If they go goalie, I think a lower cost, younger option who can challenge Onana/Bayindir this season and maybe Vitek next season could be the smarter play. Otherwise, you have two high salary goalies on your squad, and you block Vitek.

🚨 There is growing hope at Manchester United that they might be able to complete deals for to sign BOTH Gianluigi Donnarumma and Carlos Baleba this summer.

(Source: @MiguelDelaney) pic.twitter.com/aTrEtbfdEI

— Transfer News Live (@DeadlineDayLive) August 11, 2025

Well are there close examples? Because the big difference between the good names you did mention, Rooney and Rashford, is that they didn't have a fall off to single digits in a season they were healthy and played most of the minutes until the last two years before they left the club. (Rashford had low output in 2021 due to an injury, playing just over 1200 minutes in league, but he also nearly moved on back then, so there you go; in retrospect, that might have been for the best).

Maybe if I get bored I'll do the leg work on this. But until then, let me turn it around. Are there close examples of players who scored 10 at 20 and then in the next season went through a managerial change, a massive mid season change in tactics, and on a team that performance wise fell off a cliff across the entire roster and finished 15th? Why am I the only one tasked with actually providing data for their opinion?

I gave examples that I consider close from the same year that you rejected. If you want another, Agbonlahor was scoring about 10 per year from 19-22, then fell to 3 goals at 23 and was basically awful the rest of his career. It's going to be difficult to find players that play that much and produce that little, though. He really was otherworldly bad last year.

Oh here's a fun name: Andy Carroll. 17 championship goals at 20 for Newcastle, 11 Prem goals in half a season after they were promoted at 21, gets traded to Liverpool… and immediately sucks. 2 goals in the second half of the season, 4 goals the following year, no seasons in double digits the rest of his career.

While you two are busy arguing about nothing, United is busy trying to turn this air craft carrier around. Fabs Romano now reporting talks are officially on between United and Brighton.