AggieEP said:
Yeah, I should have added that it's Vassell plus Barnes plus some combo of picks.
I agree with you about the apron issues 100%
I think the picks for us are going to be what keeps us competitive, especially since I think we have positive swaps across the board.
2026: Atlanta (Swap)
2027: Atlanta (outright own)
2028: Boston (Swap)
2029: Spurs
2030: Wolves or Mavs (Swap)
2031: Kings (swap)
2032: Spurs
For continuing to reload, I like where we are at on this. The Boston one may or may not be good, but they will be aging. Tatum will be 29, Brown will be 31, White will be 33, Hauser and Pricard will be 30. Those five players will account for 101% of the cap that season. Sadly, Jalen Johnson keeps dragging the Hawks to wins, but Kristaps seems like a bust and Trae is hurt.
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The real question is this, can the 2025 Spurs as constructed beat OKC this year. I think the answer is no.
Can the 2025 Spurs with Lauri beat OKC? I still think it's no, but it becomes at least possible.
Yeah, I think this is right. But I think we are playing for 27. As it stands right now, OKC will be 23.5M over the 2nd Apron next year, without adding a single player. I think we are where OKC was two years ago when they lost in the Semis to Dallas.
I think OKC has the better overall team construction and we obviously have some needs to address (Barnes' replacement, Olynyk's replacement, SF/Vassell.
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So is the juice worth the squeeze to finish in the WCF and cripple your long term flexibility? I think not.
I rather develop Harper, Castle, Bryant and see what we have. Also, Sochan seems to be putting things together a bit more the last two games, although the fouls and TOs are still a problem.
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In my mind, I think the Spurs are hoping this team makes the playoffs so it can start gaining experience in the post season and find out who wilts and who stars when the games are more physical and competitive. Once we know that, it becomes much easier to do what OKC did and make the final move (Giddey for Caruso) that solidifies your chances at a title.
I think the overall gameplan is to develop internally and add veterans cheaply (like we did with Barnes/Kornet/Olynyk) to fill in the gaps.
Core:
Big: Wemby, Kornet
F: Sochan, Bryant maybe Keldon
W: Vassell, Julian
G: Fox, Castle, Harper
Keldon is obviously still developing considering the change he has made this year, but we know what he is: great teammate, bench/depth energy guy. Sochan and Bryant certainly have (lots of) room to develop. We really need Devin to figure his **** out and just be a 45/40 off-ball shooter that chases around wings on the perimeter off-ball.
I think we essentially run this team for 26, 27, and 28 seasons. Summer of 28, Fox will be 30 with 2 years left on his contract. I think we move him for a forward/wing and go with Harper/Castle as our backcourt going forward.
The only major move I would really want to do would be Fox for Franz Wagner. Orlando has Fox, Suggs, Bane, Paolo, Carter with Anthony Black, DeSilva, Goga and Issac coming off the bench.
Spurs have Wemby, Barnes, Franz, Castle, Harper with Kornet, Sochan, Keldon, Julian, and Devin coming off the bench.
Free Agent market this summer for forwards:
Andrew Wiggins
Rui Hachimura (have him, LeSciatica, Austin Reaves, and Ayton as FAs.)
Simone Fontecchio (shoot no defend)
Georges Niang (shoot no defend)
Dean Wade
Yabusele
Tari Eason (RFA, injured a lot)
Taurean Prince (just slipped a disc and had back surgery)
Eh... maybe guys you could trade for cheap because of negative value contracts
MPJ (Keldon+Olynyk works right now ; Devin+Julian or Sochan works; Barnes+Olynyk works)
Jerami Grant (don't think he is a winning ball player and his contract is dumb, but he is getting 18p in 27mpg on 46/40 shooting.)
Patrick Williams - 3 years after this at 18M/year but he is hitting 42% of his threes. Bulls are playing him less and winning more. Olynyk for him straight up works and saves Chicago a ton of money. But give us a 2029 swap for taking on that contract.
The guy I actually want is PJ Washington, but he can't be traded until after the season.
Like Obi Wan said, I don't think we can out fire power them this year or next. But when that 2nd apron hits, maybe. But I think maintaining depth, flexibilty and adding cheap talent when possible is the way to go. We have $40M in expiring contracts in Barnes+Olynyk+Sochan and they are in flexible chunks. Keldon only has 1y after this at 10% of the cap.
Sam Hauser is playing bad for Boston this year. They could trade Hauser+Tillman for Sochan and get under the 1st apron and free up money next year.
But I think we pretty much stand pat unless something becomes available with a team blowing **** up at a discount and they want our ending contracts. Dallas is the only team I expect to blow up, but I wouldn't give picks for Gafford, PJ can't be traded, and I wouldn't want Klay or AD.
Clippers suck, but they can't tank without their pick. DJJ is the obvious player from them, but he can't shoot reliably either. Devin+Olynyk for Kawhi actually works, but yikes. Collins is playing like **** and only fits if you include Barnes or Devin or do multiple other players.
Not sure who we would want on the Kangs. LaVine for Devin+Olynyk works if they want to clear cap space. I wouldn't give up a pick and LaVine sucks on defense.
Pelicans can't tank and would want a ransom for Herb or Trey. Yall wanna give us Zion for Olynyk and Devin, I might listen. Devin+Olynyk+Sochan for Trey Murphy+DeJounte's rotting contract also fits cap wise. Wanna get off that DeJounte contract? That's one Trey Murphy or Herb Jones.
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I'm pretty happy to let our guys just develop this year, get some playoff experience and if someone wants to unload someone cheap or give us picks/swaps to eat the contract, I'm there for it.
