***Official Houston Astros 2025-26 Offseason Thread***

80,803 Views | 1559 Replies | Last: 18 min ago by Drunken Overseas Bettor
agproducer
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Disagree. He did keep his bat in the zone, but he pulled his hips through with his hands dragging behind. He ended off-balance on his front foot -- almost lunging through it.
EastCoastAgNc
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EastCoastAgNc
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tjack16
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EastCoastAgNc said:




That sounds like an alias for Ken
JDUB08AG
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tjack16 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:




That sounds like an alias for Ken



agproducer
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Drunken Overseas Bettor said:

I'll ask my devil's advocate question I always ask.

If Yordan Alvarez had been healthy wire to wire and hit 61 HR this year, would you think he was on steroids?

Yordan's career high is 37 HR.

This is a good point -- but think about it -- Yordan isn't catching 120 games/year.

That can be hell on your body.

Cal vs other catchers:

Cal hit 60 HRs. He caught 119 games and DH'd 38 games for a total of 157 games. He had 705 PAs. The average is 1 HR every 11.75 PAs.

Salvador Perez hit 48 HR in 2021. He caught 120 games, DH for 40 games for a total of 160 games. He 665 PAs. One HR every 13.85 PAs.

Johnny Bench was next with 45 HRs in 1970. He caught 130 games, played OF for 17 games, and 5 at 1B for 152 games. He had 671 PAs. One HR every 14.9 PAs.

Cal vs old numbers:


Cal's lowest number for HRs compared to PA is just over 15. Before this season, he typically hit a HR about once every 17-18 PAs. If he hit one HR at his previous career best for HR/PA -- he would have hit 47. At Salvy's pace in 2021, Cal would have hit 50 HRs.

Then, look at his OPS+. He's never had a season higher than 122. This year, it's 169. His slugging (removing his first season where he had about 150 PAs and it was much lower) averaged .460. He averaged 20 doubles a season. His slug this year was .589 -- almost an increase of 130 points -- with consistency with doubles -- 24 this year. OPS went from .761 average to .948 -- an increase of almost 200 points.

BABip is around the same as previous years. He has increased his flyball percentage from 36.7% in 2024 to 41.8% this year. He's also becoming more of a pull hitter.

The change in approach may have caused the increase -- but the increases are SO severe and for a catcher. But -- you want people to believe the adjustments made that the plate have caused HR per PA to decrease by 4 PAs from your career best and more than 6 PAS from your average?

Cal vs other notable HR hitters:

Compare Cal HR/11.75 PA to:

Judge when he hit 62 HRs: HR/11.22 PAs
McGwire in 1998 when he hit 70 HR: HR/9.72 PA
Bonds hitting 73: HR/9.09 ABs
ARod in 2002 when he hit 57: HR/12.7 PAs
Brady Anderson when he hit 50: HR/13.74 PAs
Yordan in 2022 (when he hit 37): HR/15.2 PAs -- Cal's lowest number ever before this season.
Yordan in 2019 (369 Pas and 27 HR): HR/13.6 PAs

He beat his career season HR total (34) by 26 HR in just 80 more PAs. He plays catcher -- a position that is awful on your body.

His xHRs at T-Mobile park this year were 57. His previous career high for xHRs at T-Mobile was 30. No-doubter xHRs this year were 29. His previous high for no doubter xHR was 18.

I'm not saying definitively he is using, but it needs to be considered and explored. And -- I don't believe it is steroids. I think it is HGH to aid in recovery.
Drunken Overseas Bettor
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That's all well and good but it doesn't answer my simple question.

If Yordan hit 61 after never hitting more than 37, would you think he was on steroids?
txags92
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Drunken Overseas Bettor said:

That's all well and good but it doesn't answer my simple question.

If Yordan hit 61 after never hitting more than 37, would you think he was on steroids?

Not in today's game. I would think he was on HGH or something similar.
dixichkn
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Not gonna lie. I'd be curious

I'm not sitting here saying he's 100% on something. But that one year spike is WILD. Now if he's consistently a 45-50 HR guy for the next 10 years then so be it, he figured something out. But this year sticks out like a sore thumb

Of course I'd love to see Yordan healthy for an entire season. Now THAT would be an anomaly
Marvin
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Drunken Overseas Bettor said:

That's all well and good but it doesn't answer my simple question.

If Yordan hit 61 after never hitting more than 37, would you think he was on steroids?


I think that requires some context. Is Yordan healthy and supported with some protection in the guys following him to the plate? If so, then I probably would not think this. He's a feared hitter. He's proven to be a huge bat and offensive threat. Was Raleigh ever considered that?

I think the error in your reasoning (just my opinion) is that the two were historically considered to be the same offensive player. I would disagree with that assumption. Whatever the reality may be (as in the stats you supplied), the perception is different.
agproducer
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Drunken Overseas Bettor said:

That's all well and good but it doesn't answer my simple question.

If Yordan hit 61 after never hitting more than 37, would you think he was on steroids?

No.

I would think shaving 2 PAs from your career high is reasonable.

Yordan's career average HR/PAs is 16.3. His career high -- 13.6 in 2019. If he had 705 PAs at his career pace, he'd have 43 HRs. At the high, he'd have 52. For Yordan to hit 61 HRs is the same number of PAs as Cal this year -- it would be HR/11.55 PA -- about 2 PAs off his career high. So -- we know he can get hot. (Yordan's numbers, I'm not including this year's 199 PAs or HRs as he was hurt or the 2020 season.)

Cal is about 4 PAs fewer per HR from his career high figure and 6 PAs from his career average (11.75 PA compared to career high 15.2 and career average of 17.7 PAs).

I also go back to the fact that all Yordan would have to do is hit and maybe play some OF. That is nowhere near as grueling as catching.
n_touch
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Ag_07 said:

Not to mention down and in is his wheelhouse.

Does it also start to weigh in on the pitchers and thinking if they miss and its gone. Almost as if they are thinking it to stay from his zone and end up in it?
Drunken Overseas Bettor
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Marvin said:

Drunken Overseas Bettor said:

That's all well and good but it doesn't answer my simple question.

If Yordan hit 61 after never hitting more than 37, would you think he was on steroids?


I think that requires some context. Is Yordan healthy and supported with some protection in the guys following him to the plate? If so, then I probably would not think this. He's a feared hitter. He's proven to be a huge bat and offensive threat. Was Raleigh ever considered that?

I think the error in your reasoning (just my opinion) is that the two were historically considered to be the same offensive player. I would disagree with that assumption. Whatever the reality may be (as in the stats you supplied), the perception is different.

I don't have any real reasoning other than the fact that Raleigh playing for the Astros' rival is suspicious, but if it was Yordan doing it, I think many Astro fans would just assume he's finally hitting his full potential.

I don't recall anyone on this thread giving 2 ****s when Salvador Perez hit 48 out of nowhere a few years ago.
agproducer
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Again -- I'm not saying he's on something. I just find it extremely suspect that he nearly doubled his HR total when several other metrics this year are similar to career averages.

Could it be he's just having a great year? Sure.

But to me -- the change is too drastic for it not to be questioned.

txags92
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agproducer said:

Again -- I'm not saying he's on something. I just find it extremely suspect that he nearly doubled his HR total when several other metrics this year are similar to career averages.

Could it be he's just having a great year? Sure.

But to me -- the change is too drastic for it not to be questioned.



I think it is somewhat naive not to be suspicious any time you see somebody who had fairly routine numbers in any sport suddenly take a large jump in a key metric mid to late in their career. We have seen this story before. One guy suddenly starts hitting homers like crazy when he never hit close to that many before and most of his other numbers stay basically the same? Where is all that power suddenly coming from?
BadAggie
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Raleigh's HR spike is suspicious as hell

MaxPower
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His exit velocity and bat speed are similar to prior years. He's putting it in the air more and pulling it more. I don't think it's the sauce.
Ag_07
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Y'all do realize you all sound like Yankee fans who swore we were wearing buzzers?

Just wanted to point that out while we're talking hypocrisy.
Marvin
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Seattle sure has that destiny look to them.
BCEDAg
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BadAggie said:

Raleigh's HR spike is suspicious as hell



It will be even more suspicious if Raleigh has simulate HR results next season.
agproducer
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Ag_07 said:

Y'all do realize you all sound like Yankee fans who swore we were wearing buzzers?

Just wanted to point that out while we're talking hypocrisy.

Agree, but we all know things go on behind the scenes in baseball, and the Yankee conspiracy was all concocted without anything really to back it up.

In this case -- he's nearly doubled his HR total compared year to year.

Chances are -- it's on the up-and-up with his swing adjustments (referenced above that he's hitting more fly balls and pulling the ball more), and that he's having a career year.

But -- it would be silly not to at least consider the possibility there may be more going on.

This looks a lot like the Rangers miraculous performance in 2023 where tons of guys had career years and got a title.

We will see if Raleigh gets remotely close to 60 HRs in later seasons in his career. I suspect that after this year, he'll drop back to his norms of 30 HRs a year, and we will still be scratching our heads regarding this 2025 outlier.
superaggie73
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EastCoastAgNc said:




Is this him returning home to Houston to become hitting coach? I can't imagine Boston not wanting to keep him around the way their offense excelled this year.
linkdude
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Jorge Polanco continuing a ridiculous postseason. 3 run shot to give Seattle back the lead, 6-3

he's already had 4 go ahead plate appearances in 7 games this PS.
superaggie73
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******* Seattle is gonna win it all aren't they?

Edit to add nothing suspicious about Polanco's resurgence at 35 years old either….
linkdude
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better than the dodgers is how I would rationalize it
linkdude
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and we'd be cheering for him if the Astros had sealed the deal on him in the offseason lol

the cheat mongering is just making me chuckle
wangus12
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superaggie73 said:

******* Seattle is gonna win it all aren't they?

Edit to add nothing suspicious about Polanco's resurgence at 35 years old either….


Funny given all the talk about how bad the AL West has been over the past decade and it could possibly send teams to the WS 6x and win 4x
mwm
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Just got home and turned on the game.

Dang.
fullback44
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Am I going crazy, why are they talking about Thanksgiving and eating Turkey?

Maybe they are playing in the future using a Time Machine and showing it today ?
agproducer
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fullback44 said:

Am I going crazy, why are they talking about Thanksgiving and eating Turkey?

Maybe they are playing in the future using a Time Machine and showing it today ?


I think it's Canadian Thanksgiving today.
tjack16
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Mariners are going to make it two AL west teams to win the pennant more recently than the Astros aren't they
RED AG 98
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At this point, I would like to re-order my preferred WS winner:

1. Blue Jays
2. Brew Crew



reallly big gap
999999999. Dodgers


big gap
9999999999. Mariners

The Dodgers and Yankees are my most-hated teams for sure, but I don't want another division team getting their first WS appearance or win. I think the Mariners are the final team that's never been to the WS and I'm fine with it staying that way.
jtkk
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agproducer said:

fullback44 said:

Am I going crazy, why are they talking about Thanksgiving and eating Turkey?

Maybe they are playing in the future using a Time Machine and showing it today ?


I think it's Canadian Thanksgiving today.

That turkey looked dry and tough as hell.

And this series is probably over.
agproducer
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I'm sure MLB is salivating over a Brewers Mariners WS.
BadAggie
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agproducer said:

I'm sure MLB is salivating over a Brewers Mariners WS.


Prepare yourself for some quality umpiring in the NLCS
 
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