Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

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samurai_science
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In reply to J. Walter Weatherman • 10:41p, 5/2/25
J. Walter Weatherman said:
samurai_science said:
Who?mikejones! said:
No Spin Ag said:
Sq 17 said:
CFO64763 said:
If Russia refuses Trump's deal, then the U.S. could start arming and supporting the Ukrainian war efforts again.


I'll take things that won't happen for $1000, Alex
The MAGA faithful will not tolerate open support from DJT. Possibly EU arms flow at faster rate. With no peace deal in the offing and the US withdrawing from the situation They might


Good point. There's definitely an extremely pro Putin portion of maga that would likely become upset at Trump for going against Putin.


Quite a few right here on f16
Okay, so 5 tops....lol


118 people starred this OP with the title "I'm Rooting for Russia."

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3375863
and?
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nortex97
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5:31a, 5/3/25
Sitrep: Russian spring offensive underway.
Quote:
If I had to make an educated guess about the play, I would say Russia is likely pressuring this area to fix Ukrainian units, keep them under constant threat, but no real immediate operation is planned. Russian Marines have been practicing river crossing here since last year and there is most likely a potential planned operation much deeper in the future.

Russian command would logically wait for such time when Ukrainian reserves have thinned, and the Russian 'death by a thousand cuts' strategy has begun overwhelming Ukrainian lines all across the front, forcing Ukraine into a desperate defensive strategy of 'plugging gaps' like never before. It is only then, with Kherson's defenses thinned out, that Russia could attempt a mass storming across many different points of the Dnieperwhich is the only way such an operation could feasibly work. Both the lower and upper Dnieper would likely be crossed in the same fashion as the Oskil has been in the north.

And Zelensky helpfully of course said he couldn't promise foreign dignitaries to the Moscow May Day celebrations/parade would be safe from terrorist attacks.

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docb
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:49a, 5/3/25
Spring offensive? Great news. More Russian invader *******s to turn into worm dirt.
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CS78
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7:11a, 5/3/25
Worth the price of admission to have unfettered access to the modern evolution of war. Being involved will almost certainly save American lives and equipment in the future.

https://kyivinsider.com/ukrainian-naval-drone-downs-russian-su-30-in-black-sea-a-milestone-in-drone-warfare/
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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to samurai_science • 7:26a, 5/3/25
Still think there are "5 people tops" rooting for Russia?
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Pumpkinhead
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8:35a, 5/3/25
IMO a likely outcome from all of this churn is Russia ends up with 20-25% of original Ukraine territory (including Crimea) but the U.S./West is now backing/arming central and western Ukraine, where Kiev has been pushed much closer to a NATO/EU relationship. plus Finland joined NATO as a result which was several hundreds of miles of more NATO border with Russia, and diminished Russian influence in places like Syria and Africa, etc.

Whether all that plus the huge number of dead on both sides is ultimately a 'win' for anybody…shrug shoulders…such is the evil of men.

And since Russia doesn't want the above scenario, they want a disarmed Ukraine with a puppet government in Kiev, thus the long difficult road to eventually get there.
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nortex97
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9:46a, 5/3/25

I suspect Anthony is more correct than Velina, as the 'minerals deal' was for post-war mining projects (specifically excluding any that are currently running).

If we only give the Kiev regime $15 billion this year that would be much less than half the rate the Xiden war machine was running to them, especially over their last pathetic 90 days. Most would presumably be paid for from the interest earned on seized Russian assets.

Apparently Oliver Stone took a trip to Moscow:

He's actually put out two movies/documentaries about this; Ukraine on Fire and Revealing Ukraine.
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EastSideAg2002
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 10:45p, 5/3/25
EastSideAg2002 said:
GAC06 said:
Expect a wall of tweets at 5am CST, 1pm Moscow time
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docb
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 11:10p, 5/3/25
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nortex97
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5:21a, 5/4/25
Zelensky, apparently mad at some of his rump legislators, who might be traveling here, demands Rubio cancel their visa's.


Not really a lot of developments today.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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8:04a, 5/4/25
Russia seems to have reduced the Ukrainian side to complaining about the times others posters submit updates.
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nortex97
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10:43a, 5/4/25
Nice discussion here after she finished asking the question.

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Pepe SiIvia
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11:17a, 5/4/25
Very epic, glad we got to see what RT is thinking. Totally not a pidar russki.
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nortex97
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4:20a, 5/5/25

Good. Of course the goblin then fantasizes about the Russians somehow attacking Xi in a false flag operation. Xi is going to Moscow for a few days/the parade. Nextdoor:

Good to see as well, if true:
Quote:
After the Victory Day celebration later this week, President Vladimir Putin has agreed to hold a summit meeting with President Donald Trump. "The Americans have repeatedly asked for a summit and the Kremlin has finally decided," according to a reliable Moscow source, "that there is no need to spurn the extended hand."

The source believes Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is the likely location. Preparatory discussions were held last week in Moscow when Putin telephoned the UAE President, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The Kremlin communiqu claimed "the current state of Russia-UAE relations…constitute a strategic partnership and…enables ongoing dialogue even on the most sensitive international issues." That was on May 1. The next day Putin met with Saif bin Zayed Al Nahyan, one of the President's sons and his personal security chief, titled deputy prime minister.

The Moscow source says "the messages have been sent that it will not be a conclusive deal, only a meeting. This is a climb-down from the previous, public Russian position that a lot of work needs to be done first, before a presidential summit, by specialists.
Long post, about right:
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docb
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12:33p, 5/5/25
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg4z6v600o

Good job Putin
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nortex97
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In reply to docb • 4:43a, 5/6/25
Not real sure I can take the BBC too seriously. The Brits have such Putin derangement it's sort of akin to CNN coverage of Trump. I do think the Russians have lost a lot of soldiers in 'Ukraine' over the past year though.

Trump comments about Nordstream pipeline terrorism, hints he knows who did it (and that it wasn't the Russians):
Quote:
"If you can believe it, they said Russia blew it up," Trump responded. "Well, probably if I asked certain people, they would be able to tell you without having to waste a lot of money on an investigation. But I think a lot of people know who blew it up," he added, without elaborating.

ZeroHedge suggested that Trump's comment meant that "based on classified intelligence he knows exactly who was behind" the destruction of Nord Stream. It also "should put the 'Russia destroyed its own vital and economically lucrative pipeline' storyline to rest," the outlet insisted.
Sitrep. Lot's of losses reported, nothing to celebrate about, imho.

Putin to visit India as stalled peace talks frustrate Trump. A different perspective but similar negative outlook as to a deal to end the war.

Another sitrep. Gamifying drone 'scores' is somewhat clever, again just my opinion.
Quote:
We continue our series of looking ahead at the changing face of warfare and 'revolution in military affairs' taking place in Ukraine, and how it's affecting all other militaries of the world.

We've of course heard ad nauseam about the supremacy of drones of all kinds, in particular how Ukraine has been increasingly leveraging a drone-centric style of defensive warfare. The latest logical progression of that is reported to be a 'gamification' of drone warfare, where Ukrainian units are awarded 'points' for certain type of drone kills, and a national 'leaderboard' system can be used to 'cash out' for important supplies:

It bears resemblance to modern transactional game design, where you accumulate tokens or credits in exchange for important upgrades. Sure, it may seem barbaric and crude on the surfaceeven Politico dubs it "macabre"but it is only a natural extension to Ukraine's necessary min-maxing of their only military trump card.
Quote:
The program called Army of Drones bonus rewards soldiers with points if they upload videos proving their drones have hit Russian targets. It will soon be integrated with a new online marketplace called Brave 1 Market, which will allow troops to convert those points into new equipment for their units.

In general T-90 production/units are not sent to Ukraine, from what I've read.
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docb
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:54a, 5/6/25
You post all this crap from God knows where but you don't take the BBC seriously? Why am I not surprised….
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to docb • 6:58a, 5/6/25
The BBC is a complete joke. Theres at least a possibility news from somewhere else is actually credible
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PlaneCrashGuy
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7:24a, 5/6/25
BBC is further gone than CNN, MSNBC

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nortex97
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In reply to docb • 7:55a, 5/6/25
I don't take the BBC seriously across a wide array of their reporting, correct, and haven't for many years. Really, going back around 10 years ago to how Jeremy Clarkson was handled by them, but whatever, that's clearly off topic.

1:1 prisoner exchange: again noting the UAE involvement (referencing that's where I think Putin and Trump will meet this month).
Quote:
Russia has returned 205 servicemen from the territory controlled by the Kiev regime, in return handing over 205 Ukrainian prisoners of war, the Defense Ministry reported.

"On May 6, 2025, as a result of negotiations, 205 Russian servicemen were returned from the territory controlled by the Kiev regime. In return, 205 Ukrainian prisoners of war were handed over," the statement said.

According to the ministry, the UAE provided mediation efforts to ensure the return of the Russian servicemen.
For those who prefer blue-yellow sources:

Good to see, though I do wish both sides would agree to an 'all for all' deal as was proposed.
Hopefully Trump is right, again:

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GAC06
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:52a, 5/6/25
Quote:
In general T-90 production/units are not sent to Ukraine, from what I've read.


Russia has lost plenty of T-90's in Ukraine, the most recent documented a month ago. The real question is will they send that T-34 after the parade is over.
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nortex97
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In reply to GAC06 • 9:00a, 5/6/25
Not many though, in comparative numbers. They are rare in Ukraine. The other irony is that the T-34 itself was largely made possible by…the Nazi's partnering with the Russians to do tank research in Russia pre-WW2 thanks to the treaty of Versailles etc. Again, history at least rhymes.

The -34 shown is a museum piece at the plant:

Rob claims they are making 300 a year, though that is really speculative:
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nortex97
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5:23a, 5/8/25
Ceasefire was initiated, and both sides are holding to it for now.


Quote:
However, Moscow has rejected Kiev's plan, arguing that Ukrainian troops, which have been on the backfoot for months, would use it to regroup and strengthen their military posture.

Vance stressed that the US remains interested in a "long-term settlement" of the conflict rather than a short-term one. "We've tried to move beyond the obsession with the 30-day ceasefire and more on the what would the long-term settlement look like? And we've tried to consistently advance the ball," the vice president said.

Vance also noted that the US has deemed Moscow's initial negotiation proposals as excessive. "Certainly, the first peace offer that the Russians put on the table, our reaction to it was you're asking for too much," he said. "But this is how negotiations unfold."

Russia has repeatedly said it is open to talks with Kiev but noted that Ukraine has low credibility, especially when it comes to honoring ceasefire commitments. Moscow's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has accused Ukraine of sabotaging earlier efforts on this front, including a US-brokered 30-day moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure and a Moscow-backed Easter truce.


In light of this, she noted that Russia would view Ukraine's conduct during the 72-hour Victory Day ceasefire, which went into effect on Thursday, as a test of good faith. Moscow earlier described the initiative as a humanitarian gesture and a move to pave the way for direct peace talks with Ukraine without preconditions.

Meanwhile, Trump appeared to support the three-day ceasefire, noting that it "doesn't sound like much, but it's a lot, if you know where we started from."
I guess we'll just have to see. Vance: getting them to talk to each other is 'next big step.'
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nortex97
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6:17a, 5/9/25

Incredible to ponder, really.

Quite a show. Peepaw on the other hand…

I think the two sides are taking the weekend off, from the war, which is nice. Apparently Trump had to tell Zelensky to knock it off, but still a UFA drone hit a (Russian municipal) building in Belgorod injuring 2.
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nortex97
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7:12a, 5/10/25
Not a real good sign:

Meh, it was something.

War proponent euro's (all of them increasingly unpopular at home, fwiw) took a train to Kiev, notice the nazi imagery at left:

Slovakian President Fico promised to veto any EU ban on Russian gas purchases. The war looks set to kick off again in earnest in the next 24 hours unfortunately.
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YouBet
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In reply to docb • 8:49a, 5/10/25
docb said:
You post all this crap from God knows where but you don't take the BBC seriously? Why am I not surprised….


Uh, the BBC is funded through a mandatory public licensing fee via the UK government and have close to 50% market share.

You think a government mandated news organization won't have some bias in favor of government approved messaging?

You should be a skeptic of any media source funded by a government for obvious reasons.
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docb
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In reply to YouBet • 9:18a, 5/10/25
YouBet said:
docb said:
You post all this crap from God knows where but you don't take the BBC seriously? Why am I not surprised….


Uh, the BBC is funded through a mandatory public licensing fee via the UK government and have close to 50% market share.

You think a government mandated news organization won't have some bias in favor of government approved messaging?

You should be a skeptic of any media source funded by a government for obvious reasons.

Uh, ok?
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GAC06
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:47a, 5/10/25
Totally not isolated, they threw a parade and world powers like Venezuela, Cuba, and Palestine sent heads of state.
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nortex97
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In reply to YouBet • 10:02a, 5/10/25
Never forget. He's now their foreign secretary, but I laugh that he had to call out this absurd reporting from the BBC years back, where they idiotically decried the smoke color as an indicia of the race of the new pope.

Oh, and to keep this on topic, he was just in 'Ukraine' yesterday helping to set the stage for post-war healing via tribunals (no doubt to be run by neo-Nazi's in Western Ukraine).

Victory Day was actually celebrated widely in Europe, though certainly not in Western 'Ukraine', where an elderly pensioner was arrested for leaving flowers at a memorial.
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nortex97
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4:53a, 5/11/25
Some good news as to Trump's reaction to Putin peace talks proposal;
Quote:
US President Donald Trump has expressed support for his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin's proposal to resume direct peace talks with Ukraine, which have been on hold since 2022. Putin earlier suggested restarting negotiations in Istanbul, Trkiye next week.

Trump took to Truth Social on Sunday to praise what he called "a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine! Think of the hundreds of thousands of lives that will be saved as this never ending 'bloodbath' hopefully comes to an end."

The US, he added, "wants to focus, instead, on Rebuilding and Trade. A BIG week upcoming!"

Putin previously proposed resuming direct negotiations with Ukraine on May 15 in Istanbul, where talks were last held in 2022. Moscow said that while the sides were making progress toward peace at the time and had reached a preliminary draft agreement, the process was derailed by then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who advised Kiev to "keep fighting."
So no ceasefire, but an offer to talk, if Z-man is willing to actually do that.

The goblin would have to change his decree on such talks though;

Of course, there are those who see this as Putin rejecting the (clearly silly) theatrics of Macron-Starmer etc.

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nortex97
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4:52a, 5/13/25
Some challenges with the peace negotiations. "Talks games" as he puts it.
Quote:
Quote:
"We'll see how it all plays out, of course. But look, we knew that Russia would ask too much, because from the Russian point of view, what's happening on the ground is their victory. And of course, the Ukrainians would like a ceasefire, partly because the last few months have not been good for them.
Our position is that we don't want Ukraine to collapse. We obviously want Ukraine to remain a sovereign country. But Russia cannot expect to be given back territories that it hasn't even seized. And that was what their original peace plan was.
I actually think it's progress that the Russians and Ukrainians have started talking at all. It's also progress that there are concrete peace proposals on the table. We knew from the start that the first Russian proposal would be excessive.
We knew they would ask for more than was reasonable to give. That often happens in negotiations. It doesn't bother me.
I would be concerned if we came to the conclusion that Russia was negotiating in bad faith. And if that happens, yes, we will step aside. The President will say: we are leaving this process.
Everyone seems to understandas Trump himself hintedthat Russia remains in the driver's seat yet for some reason they still expect Russia to make a massive concession by simply agreeing to stop advancing for virtually no reward: Ukraine would still get military aid, be allowed to keep its Nazi ideology, etc. This is simply asinine.

Quote:
The above NYT piece notes that Biden's last military aid line will run out this summer, and that Europe will take upwards of a decade to get their own production lines up and running:
Quote:
While European leaders and investors appear willing to pump more money into weapons production, industry executives and experts predict it will take a decade to get assembly lines up to speed.
Who knew?
Quote:
"Europe is trying to replace the assistance that we lost from the United States, but unfortunately, they don't have the capacity to do this," Mr. Chernev said. "It takes time between the decision and the real assistance."
Meanwhile, Russian production of key arms components has skyrocketed
Some reality:
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nortex97
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6:08a, 5/16/25
Russian expectations for peace talks in Turkey are marginal from what I've read this week. Trump wants to meet Putin soon, and if it were to finally happen I think that would be more portentous of a deal for peace than whatever is going on in Istanbul/Ankara this week. But, at least they are talking (Ukrainians/Russians).
Quote:
Speaking to reporters in the United Arab Emirates on Friday amid his Middle East tour, Trump was asked to comment on when he could meet with Putin. The US leader stated "it's time for us to just do it."

"We're going to get it done," Trump said, adding that he would meet with Putin "as soon as we can set it up."

While he didn't give an exact timeline for the potential face-to-face encounter, he suggested that while the world is already a "much safer place," it will be "much, much safer" in "two to three weeks."
Russia shuffles a new general into command. No idea if this is good/bad.
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Who?mikejones!
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7:40a, 5/16/25
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benchmark
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:42a, 5/16/25
Quote:
Speaking to reporters in the United Arab Emirates on Friday amid his Middle East tour, Trump was asked to comment on when he could meet with Putin. The US leader stated "it's time for us to just do it."

"We're going to get it done," Trump said, adding that he would meet with Putin "as soon as we can set it up."

While he didn't give an exact timeline for the potential face-to-face encounter, he suggested that while the world is already a "much safer place," it will be "much, much safer" in "two to three weeks."
Good grief. So Trump demands the Istanbul conference with Zelinsky attending … Russia then sends their B-team and appoints a new commander for their ground forces. Then, just before the Istanbul meeting Trump pulls the rug on Istanbul and says nothing will happen until Putin and Trump have a face-to-face. How long before Trump finally realizes he's getting played like a fiddle?
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nortex97
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8:02a, 5/16/25
A Russian take on Ukrainian demands;

I am hopeful the Russians (who sent a more technical/military team, vs. political) were able to explain the military situation to Zelensky though, as I am convinced he is given false information via Nato/his folks.


Probably some more 'leaks' or releases/chats about how the talks went in the next day or so. Another F-16 lost. Hungary shot down two Ukrainian drones, various Russian advances, just another day.
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