Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

70,011 Views | 1025 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by nortex97
nortex97
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Neither country is free but Ukraine's remaining is suffering much more as shown by the efforts to flee, even by their translator at the Ankara negotiations this month. It's really a pointless debate though, as long as we end sending weapons/money to one side (or the other), it can be not our problem and will be resolved quickly. FWIW, almost all polling in Ukraine favors a negotiated end to the war, and trending that way steadily more so.

As an aside, Afghanistan still cracks me up as a point of failure for the Russians, when it's team America that most recently spent 10+ years there/blood and untold billions before folding up shop and yet somehow (even today I think?) still paying the Taliban 10s of millions a week for…something. Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Brazil, and Ukraine (and probably Hamas/Hezbollah to be fair, whom we funded more than any other nation) alike are all exemplars of our regime change/foreign policy failures over the past 20 years.

But again, whatever, we're not going to agree so I'll wait to be told I should change my citizenship again for thinking this insanity needs to stop. Forever war.
FIDO_Ags
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Not really examples of what I asked so will just assume you either don't know or just won't.
Sq 17
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Trump said he would solve this problem by getting Putin to the table or resuming shipments of weapons to Ukraine
He didn't get Putin to the table and looks like the US won't be shipping more arms to Ukraine
So yeah blaming Trump seems appropriate
FIDO_Ags
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I was trying to avoid using the example of the US experience in Afghanistan, but thanks for helping me make my point to planecrash.
J. Walter Weatherman
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nortex97 said:


But again, whatever, we're not going to agree so I'll wait to be told I should change my citizenship again for thinking this insanity needs to stop. Forever war.


Everyone, except Putin, thinks this insanity needs to stop, and yet you spend countless hours attempting to justify their invasion and the continued war that Russia could end at any point they wanted to. Don't pretend like you're some kind of martyr for peace.
FIDO_Ags
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Dang! Preach on J-man!
nortex97
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

nortex97 said:


But again, whatever, we're not going to agree so I'll wait to be told I should change my citizenship again for thinking this insanity needs to stop. Forever war.
Everyone, except Putin, thinks this insanity needs to stop, and yet you spend countless hours attempting to justify their invasion and the continued war that Russia could end at any point they wanted to. Don't pretend like you're some kind of martyr for peace.
Putin's team proposed peace terms. Zelensky's rejected them. Again.

I don't claim to be a martyr, I do claim to be a skeptic of supporting the Kiev regime, which I find despicable and where my tax dollars etc. are even now going. I didn't gratuitously join a team here as though it's the Ags vs. another competitor, and I think I'm actually more pro-Ukrainian than the pro-war side you support, but don't seek your approval or agreement.

There are plenty of hateful threads/posts about Putin and Russians. If I were interested in winning a popularity contest I'd join them, as with previous topics such as covid, Russiagate, and others. It's funny to me that this always comes down to slamming me personally (or sources), vs. actually rebutting/discussing the information I have chosen to post/share. It's consistent in this respect, which belies I think the weakness of the 'pro war/strengthen Kiev at all costs' side.

There's no strength or integrity in viewing the war thru a simple Nuland/Vindman/ISW media prism, imho.
Teslag
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Those aren't peace terms. They are terms for surrender. Santa Anna offered similar to Travis.
J. Walter Weatherman
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nortex97 said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

nortex97 said:


But again, whatever, we're not going to agree so I'll wait to be told I should change my citizenship again for thinking this insanity needs to stop. Forever war.
Everyone, except Putin, thinks this insanity needs to stop, and yet you spend countless hours attempting to justify their invasion and the continued war that Russia could end at any point they wanted to. Don't pretend like you're some kind of martyr for peace.
Putin's team proposed peace terms. Zelensky's rejected them. Again.

I don't claim to be a martyr, I do claim to be a skeptic of supporting the Kiev regime, which I find despicable and where my tax dollars etc. are even now going. I didn't gratuitously join a team here as though it's the Ags vs. another competitor, and I think I'm actually more pro-Ukrainian than the pro-war side you support, but don't seek your approval or agreement.

There are plenty of hateful threads/posts about Putin and Russians. If I were interested in winning a popularity contest I'd join them, as with previous topics such as covid, Russiagate, and others. It's funny to me that this always comes down to slamming me personally (or sources), vs. actually rebutting/discussing the information I have chosen to post/share. It's consistent in this respect, which belies I think the weakness of the 'pro war/strengthen Kiev at all costs' side.

There's no strength or integrity in viewing the war thru a simple Nuland/Vindman/ISW media prism, imho.


The only side that is "pro war" is Putin and his supporters, since he is the only one keeping the war going. You can post all the strawmen you want and accuse other people of things you know aren't true, but nothing will change that fact.
GAC06
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Surrender and I'll stop invading you.

-the totally not pro war perspective
samurai_science
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Well, Ukraine can keep fighting if they want, it's their men being killed.
nortex97
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If we stop propping up the Zelensky regime, the answer will come very quickly from their people/side. The USAID-style proxies in the EU have no power to impact this outcome.
FIDO_Ags
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And they are and given a 3:1 ratio in favor of the defense, that's three dead Russians for every Ukrainian, yet you are asking the country that was invaded to surrender. Fascinatingly obtuse.
DCPD158
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nortex97 said:

If we stop propping up the Zelensky regime, the answer will come very quickly from their people/side. The USAID-style proxies in the EU have no power to impact this outcome.
If we wouldn't have slow rolled the aid with blankets and then dribs and drabs for the first two years and let Ukraine lob all the **** they wanted into Russia, the Russian people might have different thoughts about this war.
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
nortex97
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DCPD158 said:

nortex97 said:

If we stop propping up the Zelensky regime, the answer will come very quickly from their people/side. The USAID-style proxies in the EU have no power to impact this outcome.
If we wouldn't have slow rolled the aid with blankets and then dribs and drabs for the first two years and let Ukraine lob all the **** they wanted into Russia, the Russian people might have different thoughts about this war.
Well, the Obama presidency is ancient history at this point. At some point our foreign policy goals/tools/actions should more closely resemble the Hippocratic oath.
FIDO_Ags
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Our foreign policy should follow the Hippocratic oath? Are you kidding me? Regardless of who you say you support, your daily spams indicate otherwise. Russia with Putin supports aggression against sovereign states and U.S. foreign policy should follow the Hippocratic Oath.
Who?mikejones!
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Uh, no.
PlaneCrashGuy
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You said : "And I've seen no evidence that Ukraine is willing to capitulate except for conjecture on a message board."

So I gave you 2 recent quotes of leaders in Ukraine willing to give up land for peace.

I'm not sure what magical question you think I ignored or can't/wont answer.
MouthBQ98
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I get the feeling Ukraine will fight on because they know the alternative is Russification, and I think they have a pretty good idea already how that will go, such that any peace they might get that involves capitulation might be more deadly than the war.
FIDO_Ags
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That's conjecture as well. Another poster linked articles about Russians fleeing their country due to an unpopular war.

You said my examples of Fabian Strategies that worked weren't relevant and I wanted to know why you thought they weren't relevant. Nortex even helped me out by mentioning the American experience in Afghanistan, an unfortunate one I was trying to avoid but relevant nonetheless.
PlaneCrashGuy
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FIDO_Ags said:

That's conjecture as well. Another poster linked articles about Russians fleeing their country due to an unpopular war.

You said my examples of Fabian Strategies that worked weren't relevant and I wanted to know why you thought they weren't relevant. Nortex even helped me out by mentioning the American experience in Afghanistan, an unfortunate one I was trying to avoid but relevant nonetheless.


You can label quotes from last week from Ukrainian leaders still living in Ukraine as conjecture, but they're certainly not quotes from random people posting on a message board; which was what you tried to claim originally.

The other poster linked data on Russians leaving Russia years ago at the start of the war. Obviously the Russians who left are no longer in Russia today. Logically speaking, if the Russians who didn't support the war left when it started left Russia, that would bolster my claim that the ones who stayed continue to support it.

I thought I made it clear. The examples you cited were relatively unpopular. I've seen nothing to prove that should apply here.
nortex97
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Lavrov; draft peace proposal per Ankara talks, after POW swaps completed.
Quote:

Russia will be ready to present its draft peace proposal to Ukraine by the time the two sides complete their latest military and civilian POWs swap, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said. Moscow is "actively working" on a document in line with what was agreed during the Istanbul talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators last week, according to the minister.

Preparing and presenting draft peace proposals was one of two major milestones achieved by Moscow and Kiev during the Istanbul meeting the first direct negotiations between the two warring parties since 2022, when Ukraine unilaterally walked away from the negotiating table. The second was a major prisoner swap involving 1,000 POWs from each side, which started on Friday. Moscow and Kiev expect the exchange to continue over the weekend.

Russia's peace proposal would include "conditions for reaching a sustainable, lasting comprehensive agreement on the peace settlement," Lavrov said.

"As soon as the prisoner swap is over, we will be ready to hand over this draft document to the Ukrainian side," the minister told journalists on Friday, adding that the proposal is "currently being finalized."

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that he had agreed with US President Donald Trump that the next move toward resolving the Ukraine conflict should be a memorandum outlining the principles and timeline for a peace settlement. The American leader has been pushing Moscow and Kiev towards resolving the Ukraine conflict since taking office in January, and has recently urged them to engage in direct talks.
This is sort of comical in a way as per above in the thread 'only the EU should be joining Ukraine to negotiate with the Russians, not the US/Trump.' Bild; Putin now wants 7, not 4 regions.
Quote:

Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin already wants seven Ukrainian regions instead of four. The refusal of US President Donald Trump to participate in negotiations only encourages Russia to further aggression against Ukraine. This is reported by UNN with reference to the German newspaper Bild.
Pretty massive attacks overnight again, including a drone plant (Antonov/Energia) in Kiev, and apparently 2 patriot ADA radars taken out (at least one of the batteries in Kiev dumped all their missiles, generally a self-defense of last resort action).

About right…

nortex97
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FIDO_Ags said:

That's conjecture as well. Another poster linked articles about Russians fleeing their country due to an unpopular war.

You said my examples of Fabian Strategies that worked weren't relevant and I wanted to know why you thought they weren't relevant. Nortex even helped me out by mentioning the American experience in Afghanistan, an unfortunate one I was trying to avoid but relevant nonetheless.
Only one party in this war had to lock their borders to ensure no more military age males flee, and it's the one with a diaspora now of over 6.8 million in Europe at this point, around a fifth of the pre-war population, but closer to a third of their reproductive-age adults. It's been such a burden that even pro-war governments such as Poland are cutting back on welfare benefits provided to resident Ukrainian refugees. Meanwhile, people are even moving to Russia via their shared values visa program;

ETA, Tucker has an interesting discussion of the lawless situation/persecutions around 11-18 minute mark here with his latest:

Frustrating/sad.

I don't understand and don't care to as to how you think our disasters in Afghanistan etc. makes a point for you. We should stop propping up proxy wars and proxy governments. They've been a disaster since Clinton was president, at least, but really going back to South Vietnam, through to the execrable Jimmy Carter's Ayatollah and Mugabe pals, etc.
J. Walter Weatherman
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Putin murdered a few more civilians overnight, including theee children. I'm sure this was also Ukraine's fault somehow.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-drone-fragments-set-kyiv-apartment-building-ablaze-official-says-2025-05-24/
Funky Winkerbean
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Hard to take you serious when you use words such as murder to describe death during a war.
Ghost of Andrew Eaton
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Children aren't combatants. So murder seems to be appropriate.
PlaneCrashGuy
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It purely an emotional response, attempting to draw a reaction. Completely unserious.
J. Walter Weatherman
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And that you focused on the wording and not on Putin continuing to drone civilians in the war that he started makes me confident I don't need to take you seriously either.
nortex97
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

And that you focused on the wording and not on Putin continuing to drone civilians in the war that he started makes me confident I don't need to take you seriously either.
So in an enormous, largest single-day attack of the war, 3 children were killed (including a 17 year old), out of over 300 missiles/cruise missiles fired, when the Ukrainians regularly claim to down 70-90 percent of them.

I don't celebrate the deaths by any means, and again think both sides should stick to targeting military facilities, but it's not likely the homes were the targets, as it would not just be a war crime, but a waste of military resources, and a counterproductive one at that. As simplicius noted in the post above, there's no pleasure in seeing Ukraine pounded at this point. And it's a fallacy to think one leadership side or the other are the 'good guys' in this war.


The obstinate obsession of the Kiev regime to refuse the Russian terms of land for peace, and a return to the sovereign commitment to neutrality (per Tucker interview) instead of alliances, as well as protections for Russian speakers/churches etc. is what is unreasonable, imho.
J. Walter Weatherman
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They're not just trading "land for peace." They are trading thousands of square miles of land that Russia doesn't currently control, that includes cities and people who have no interest in being Russian, for a peace that just would just set them up for another unprovoked invasion once Russia has time to reload.

That being said, Ukraine also needs to admit they aren't getting back what they don't currently control, which I think they would settle on once real negotiations start. But if Russia was interested in peace at all they could accept the ceasefire and start those negotiations.
Tailgate88
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MaxPower
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

They're not just trading "land for peace." They are trading thousands of square miles of land that Russia doesn't currently control, that includes cities and people who have no interest in being Russian, for a peace that just would just set them up for another unprovoked invasion once Russia has time to reload.

That being said, Ukraine also needs to admit they aren't getting back what they don't currently control, which I think they would settle on once real negotiations start. But if Russia was interested in peace at all they could accept the ceasefire and start those negotiations.
This. These just give them land takes are absurd. They took crimea. It wasn't enough. They've take the Donbas. It isn't enough. At some point you have to look at the actions and ignore the words.
Funky Winkerbean
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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

Children aren't combatants. So murder seems to be appropriate.
Murder by definition has intent. Can you prove intent?
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

You said : "And I've seen no evidence that Ukraine is willing to capitulate except for conjecture on a message board."

So I gave you 2 recent quotes of leaders in Ukraine willing to give up land for peace.

I'm not sure what magical question you think I ignored or can't/wont answer.


The issue here is your obfuscation of equating what those Ukrainian leaders are saying and Russia is proposing. Nearly everyone, including myself and those Ukrainian leaders, realize that Ukraine will realistically have to give lands under Russian control for peace. But that's not what Russia is offering for "peace". They want lands not under their control. Lands that include the cities of Kherson and Kharkiv which are under no threat of Russian occupation, and comprise over 1 million Ukrainians who have no interests in being Russians. Zalzhuny would never agree to that, and it's absurd for anyone to think that's anything beyond absurd.
ABATTBQ11
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Funky Winkerbean said:

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

Children aren't combatants. So murder seems to be appropriate.
Murder by definition has intent. Can you prove intent?


Russia has repeatedly and consistently hit civilian targets through the war. Early on they bombed a shelter that was marked "children" so clearly or could be seen on satellite photos.

Russia has lobbed large unguided or poorly guided munitions into Ukrainian cities with no regard to what they hit. It's no different than randomly shooting into a crowd and saying, "I didn't murder anyone because I didn't sit at anyone specifically."
 
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