Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

70,318 Views | 1027 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Pumpkinhead
PlaneCrashGuy
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Slice was referencing the Kursk pocket, not Crimea.
TriAg2010
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oh no said:

and Crimea held a referendum, overwhelmingly supported rejoining Russia themselves, declared independence, and requested to rejoin Russia --- in 2014. Ukraine isn't getting Crimea back as any part of this deal. They have no leverage for Crimea.


Oh honey.
FIDO_Ags
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And you wouldn't if you listen to Pravda and Trump. The Russians held all of Afghanistan and still lost.

And they've held that 20% of Ukraine for two years now and done nothing else. Doubtful Ukraine can push them back but this war is far from over unless the Russia commits to a minimum of 5:1 manpower ratio and even then they'll pay a heavy price for a Pyrrhic victory.
PlaneCrashGuy
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I'm not sure what lesson you expect Ukraine to learn from the Afghans or what difference you expect western weapons to make if we agree it is "doubtful Ukraine can push them back"
FIDO_Ags
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Nothing more than that this war is far from over.
Pumpkinhead
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Trump gets a Win If Rare Earth Deal with Ukraine to keep helping them or some Russia concessions to US interests strategically elsewhere in the world to stop helping Ukraine.

But If all that happens is the US stops helping Ukraine (no deals whatsoever) and simply abandons all leverage in this conflict getting nothing out of it except 'cutting our losses' .then that would be in the Loss column for Trump.
nortex97
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A lot going on today. I think Zelensky even realizes his slamming of the Trump-Putin plan was a mistake now (keep in mind I am convinced he's a drug addict so this erratic stuff just isn't a surprise now), but it probably doesn't matter. Trump knows Americans (at least those outside of hardcore Dem base) just don't care about the Donbas or Crimea, and he can and should just walk away entirely from the Kiev regime, imho.

Breitbart gets it right:
Quote:

Responding to Zelensky, U.S. President Trump took to Truth Social on Wednesday afternoon, writing that his comments were "very harmful" to the peace negotiations with Russia.

"Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama, and is not even a point of discussion. Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants Crimea, why didn't they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired?"

"The area also houses, for many years before 'the Obama handover,' major Russian submarine bases. It's inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy's that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country. I have nothing to do with Russia, but have much to do with wanting to save, on average, five thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, who are dying for no reason whatsoever."

"The statement made by Zelenskyy today will do nothing but prolong the 'killing field,' and nobody wants that! We are very close to a Deal, but the man with 'no cards to play' should now, finally, GET IT DONE. I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS, that would have never started if I were President!"
Let Europe (or rather the Germans, Brits and French, really) fund the dwindling Kiev regime in their delusional dream of retaking Crimea, and by us getting out now it absolves us of further costs and risks of escalation.
mode67ag
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I continue to wonder, as others do, if an unspoken issue is increased military spending by other NATO countries. Also, Ukraine can join NATO in the future (post-Putin) when the Russians figure out that China is their biggest problem.
YouBet
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Pepe SiIvia said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Yes, he effectively owns the whole damn nation. What MORE does he want at this point? He wants the ego trip of being Putin the Great.
He will gladly take anything he can. Georgia, Chechnya, and now Ukraine are all going the same way. Ukraine just got lucky that the rest of the world actually wanted to help this time.


Putin is a rat who will keep taking until he is six feet under, and this amateur administration is fine with helping him.


Putin sucks but where do you draw the line? Are you going to go out on a limb for every single country Russia might go after?

That was the whole point of NATO. NATO is the line.

None of the countries you mentioned are in NATO so they aren't our responsibility and we can't afford to fund and fight a proxy war in every country that Russia might go after that is within their sphere of influence and not ours. Plus, the countries he's talked about going after have little strategic value to us. The ROI just isn't there; sucks for the people that don't want to be owned by Russia.

(And I think Turkey would have something to say over Russia trying to take Georgia).
Dave Robicheaux
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mode67ag said:

I continue to wonder, as others do, if an unspoken issue is increased military spending by other NATO countries. Also, Ukraine can join NATO in the future (post-Putin) when the Russians figure out that China is their biggest problem.


His proxy ambassador to the UN has requested 550 billion from EU guaranteed up to 2029.

The country is under Marshall law. Zelensky has made their internal police and national guard into a Gestapo like unit.


He has built a barrier for removal. In my mind only an assasination or extrication of zelinsky is necessary for Ukraine to accept the Kellogg plan.
Aggie Spirit
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Bingo
samurai_science
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MouthBQ98 said:

Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat? What do they stand to lose by the US declining further involvement?

It's just a very very strange threat for a supposed mediator to make if you are trying to encourage an end and incentivize participation.

It does achieve making the USA look relatively impotent and inconsequential and that surely doesn't help us in our own negotiations.

Who cares? We already have tons of sanctions in place.

Russian wins or Ukraine wins, we need stop funding it.
samurai_science
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FIDO_Ags said:

Nothing more than that this war is far from over.
Fine, let them fight it without us
Artimus Gordon
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Okay what's happened to the 10,000 troops that Keir starmer promised to throw into the war in Ukraine's defense. Was that just more EU lip service. The EU seems to be more than happy to do as little as possible to resolve it.

The EU should take the lead and either commit to winning it (money & munitions) or settle it as it stands now. There is no way America should be knee deep in this land grab in 2025. It's obvious the zalensky loves the grift that this money pit has become. He has no intentions of seeing it end. So hand it all off to the European Union and let them deal with it. Putin is on their doorstep not ours.

Wasn't Iraq & Afghanistan enough for the US this century? And here we are 3 years deep in a war that Putin is playing the long game in and Europe is just sitting back letting the US take the lead. Enough is enough!
ts5641
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I would never take Putin at his word.
nortex97
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ts5641 said:

I would never take Putin at his word.
And I'd never take Zelensky at his. "Lives matter more than territories." Many snorts ago.

Quote:

On Wednesday's "Alex Marlow Show," host and Breitbart Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow discussed the Russia-Ukraine talks.

Marlow stated that Crimea will end up being part of Russia and "It's clear to me Zelensky, he just wants the gravy train. He doesn't want the war to stop. He just wants because once the war stops, then he's not going to be a necessarily relevant political player."
Europe has no military forces, or at this point munitions supplies of any consequence. The Russians have been fighting to control their base at Sevastopol vs. the Brits/French for well over a hundred years, if they want to keep going at it for that, so be it, just get our cash/electrons (data) out of it.


More at Tim's thread, LOL. He's right, you know.
FIDO_Ags
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They will. They started fighting the RUSSIAN invasion alone when the rest of the world said they're screwed.
Ellis Wyatt
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Zelenskyy and the democrats ****ed around. This is all much less fun for them without a blank check from the American people for their money laundering.
FIDO_Ags
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And I'm sure Biondi's AG office will be issuing arrest warrants for all of the money laundering right after she releases the Epstein files, but that's a topic for another thread. This thread is about a Ukrainian/Russian peace deal or lack thereof.
CS78
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Egg on face. flip flopping from Trump concerning Crimea. From, Crimea will never be Russian, to Crimea must be Russian. Not the way to maintain respect on the world stage.

"the United States rejects Russia's attempted annexation of Crimea and pledges to maintain this policy until Ukraine's territorial integrity is restored."

Crimea Declaration - United States Department of State
CS78
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Ellis Wyatt said:

Zelenskyy and the democrats ****ed around. This is all much less fun for them without a blank check from the American people for their money laundering.
Then we need to get to arresting those people. Make things right on that end. Dont use spite as your sole motivator for future policy.
docb
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CS78 said:

Egg on face. flip flopping from Trump concerning Crimea. From, Crimea will never be Russian, to Crimea must be Russian. Not the way to maintain respect on the world stage.

"the United States rejects Russia's attempted annexation of Crimea and pledges to maintain this policy until Ukraine's territorial integrity is restored."

Crimea Declaration - United States Department of State
Absolutely egg on face. Just flat out weakness from Trump but I am not surprised.
CS78
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Crap like that is why every country in the world knows all they have to do with us is wait us out. Usually it comes from an administration change but this is supposed to be the same administration.
Ags4DaWin
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EastSideAg2002 said:

Trump only wins negotiations when he already has all the leverage. He has all the leverage vs Ukraine so of course they had to capitulate. He has very little leverage on Russia. He isnt going to get Russia to do anything they dont want to do. When Russia balks, he just squeezes Ukraine harder to the point where the current negotiating lines are basically a Ukraine surrender.


The leverage is this- Up until now we have not allowed Ukraine to buy or lease of weapons systems capable of striking into Russia.

Tell Russia to accept a deal or we sell unlimited amounts of those weapons systems to Ukraine.

Russians will fight...but what Putin fears the most is attacks on Moscow directly as that would most certainly affect Russian support of the war effort.

Tell Putin that we will start to sell (not give)....we will just no longer restrict the sale of those weapons and missile systems to the Ukrainians if he doesn't take a deal and he will come to the table as long as he obtains is security objectives.

Putin wants to try to wait and see if a dem will likely be elected in 2028. Make it clear playing that sort of waiting game will mean Moscow does not escape this conflict unscathed.
nortex97
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Trump said 'Russia accepted the deal.' That doesn't mean it's been 'done' though. To finalize a contract both sides must agree.

He's mad Putin struck Kiev overnight, but whatever, the deal has not been finalized because Zelensky went off the deep end about how he will never give up Crimea etc. If people are worried about Kiev being hit by drones/missiles, Zelensky should resign and give authority to the leader of the Kiev parliament, as his term is up, and then the latter should agree to the deal on the table.
Ellis Wyatt
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Bondi has investigative power over Ukraine? We know Hunter Biden was taking money from them for something. That money came from somewhere. He's certainly not the only one.
FIDO_Ags
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And for that to happen, the Trump administration has to quit playing into Russian hands. At this point trump has no leverage, in fact, he folded early.
docb
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nortex97 said:

Trump said 'Russia accepted the deal.' That doesn't mean it's been 'done' though. To finalize a contract both sides must agree.

He's mad Putin struck Kiev overnight, but whatever, the deal has not been finalized because Zelensky went off the deep end about how he will never give up Crimea etc. If people are worried about Kiev being hit by drones/missiles, Zelensky should resign and give authority to the leader of the Kiev parliament, as his term is up, and then the latter should agree to the deal on the table.
Could you please define the term "deal" when referring to Trump and Putin? Do you really believe that Putin or Trump for that matter will stand by this "deal". A deal is where you get something good, not being stuck in the ass with a fork.
FIDO_Ags
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Start another thread Ellis and you can post all the evidence Biondi's disposal there.
CS78
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Yeah, sounds more like a surrender. Trump is punishing Ukraine for the Democrats corruption. He didn't enter the negotiations in good faith. I used to be sure the Trump Russia thing was a huge gaslighting. This has been so lopsided, I'm no longer so sure.
ABATTBQ11
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Ellis Wyatt said:

Zelenskyy and the democrats ****ed around. This is all much less fun for them without a blank check from the American people for their money laundering.


If this were true, shouldn't Trump be blowing the lid on it to own the libs and Zelensky? How is it that this keeps getting repeated ad infinitum, but no one, including those in the Trump admin with access to all the records and everything else, doesn't do anything about it?

It's almost like it's just blind rhetoric not based in reality...
Aggie1205
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Dave Robicheaux said:

rgag12 said:

If I'm Russia, I don't know if I agree to a peace deal. A couple more years and Ukraine will crumble and he can get the whole thing.



Russia has said since the beginning it doesnt want to control all of Ukraine.


Do you trust them? They have claimed a great deal about their intentions and keep moving the goalposts. They have claimed this is to de-nazify Ukraine, to protect Russian speakers, that it's a Holy War, that it's part of reclaiming the Russian empire borders, and more. It was also supposed to be a short term special military operation.

Historically speaking Russia is always looking to expand it's borders. They would like nothing more than taking all of Ukraine(and more)
FIDO_Ags
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Quote:

Russia has said since the beginning it doesnt want to control all of Ukraine.


Dropping an airborne brigade to seize Kiev's airport and attacking with an armored division via Belarus to Kiev at the beginning of the war three years ago says otherwise.
Who?mikejones!
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FIDO_Ags said:

And for that to happen, the Trump administration has to quit playing into Russian hands. At this point trump has no leverage, in fact, he folded early.


What leverage does the west have.

There is nothing currently discussed that would really bother putin.
More sanctions? Dont think he cares
More weapons to ukraine? Don't think he cares
More ability to use weapons as designed? Maybe, but i just don't think putin cares very much.


What other tools might trump/west use for leverage? There is nothing.
ABATTBQ11
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Dave Robicheaux said:

rgag12 said:

If I'm Russia, I don't know if I agree to a peace deal. A couple more years and Ukraine will crumble and he can get the whole thing.



Russia has said since the beginning it doesnt want to control all of Ukraine.


Yeah, they also said those hundreds of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border were just there for military drills and they had no plans if launching any kind of invasion...
 
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