nortex97 said:

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Of course, there's no indication the former is willing to ever hold elections again

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Sure, outside of the multiple times he's said the reason why they can't hold elections is because they are being invaded and under martial law (and that he said he'd step down if Ukraine was admitted to NATO). Given Putin's nearly daily bombing of civilians now, it seems virtually impossible until Putin decides to end the war anyways.

Can't find the Russia from other perspective thread to post this on, so we'll post it here. Russia's economic indicators are not looking good. They've held out longer than many expected due to an incredibly skilled Central Bank team. But things are not looking good in their banking sector right now.

An economic crisis described as a perfect storm is approaching Russia according to Bloomberg.

Russia’s banking sector is heading toward a serious crisis due to growing problems with loan repayments. A full-scale banking crisis could erupt in the country within the next twelve… pic.twitter.com/7LLZTK1Hx2

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 27, 2025

Quote:

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An economic crisis described as a perfect storm is approaching Russia according to Bloomberg.

Russia's banking sector is heading toward a serious crisis due to growing problems with loan repayments. A full-scale banking crisis could erupt in the country within the next twelve months.

Sources indicate that the scale of the problems is estimated to be worth several trillion rubles.

Russian bankers are concerned that an increasing number of corporate and private clients will be unable to repay their loans due to high interest rates.

At the end of April, the share of non-performing loans to businesses was 4 percent, and the share of non-performing loans to individuals was 5.5 percent, according to official statistics from the Russian central bank.

However, according to Bloomberg, the official statistics do not yet reflect the full extent of the potential crisis, and "in reality, the situation is significantly worse."

According to Russian bankers, the construction sector, industry, and companies involved in the military economy are starting to face payment difficulties, and the situation is becoming dangerous.

According to sources, the debt crisis could spread significantly throughout the entire Russian financial system next year.

German Gref, CEO of Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, described the situation as a "perfect storm" at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week.

Andrei Kostin, head of Russia's second-largest bank, VTB, has said that many companies now have to take on more debt just to be able to pay interest.

According to The Moscow Times, the total debt of Russian companies to the banking system at the beginning of June amounted to 86.2 trillion rubles, which is 65 percent more than at the beginning of 2022, before Russia invaded Ukraine.

---

UK has been rejecting Ukrainian asylum seekers this year as Ukraine is 'safe to return.' I don't understand why they would have taken this action, perhaps Zelensky lobbied for it?

Various sitreps. Ah, Waffen SS memories.

The first "Azovite" in Zelensky's government has arrived.

Oleksandr Alfyorov is now the head of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory—the country’s main state memory authority. To get the post, he left the ranks of the Azov 3rd Assault Brigade.

He curated his brigade's… pic.twitter.com/ShB4t6eBX3

— Marta Havryshko (@HavryshkoMarta) June 27, 2025

More positivity as to our relationship/peace prospects:

⚡️ “I hold President Trump of the United States in high regard. He has traveled a very hard and unsafe path to return to power and to the White House. He has survived more than one assassination attempt on his life. He is a courageous man. I believe that President Trump is… pic.twitter.com/qj1bIb2hpy

— 🇷🇺Russia is not Enemy (@RussiaIsntEnemy) June 27, 2025

Sanctions take years to work, personally glad the Russian might lose. China and Iran having their own issues prevent them from delivering the resources Putin needs

Putins invasion Ukraines ability to hold out and US and NATO aid have set the stage for significant change
One example Assad falling in Syria is because Russia could not keep him propped up

Which helped set the stage for Israel pummeling Iran. Hopefully the hits keep coming for the Russia/Iran/NK/China alliance.

I'm not sure there is real evidence the 'sanctions have worked,' though.

Quote:

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Nevertheless, the Russian economy has grown by over 4% over the past two years, and real incomes rose by more than 7% last year, Siluanov noted.

"Our debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 15% one of the best among G20 countries. Our budget deficit is the lowest, at just 1.7% in 2024, and this year it will remain about the same. A responsible financial policy is yielding results," he said.

---

The Russian economy is booming, says @TheEconomist.

"Despite fierce sanctions...Russia’s economy is growing strongly." GDP is rising 3%, more than almost all rich countries.

They have abandoned austerity, unemployment IS at an all-time low, consumer confidence is soaring. pic.twitter.com/e2ioLZUqL9

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) August 12, 2024

Their currency exchange rates etc. have improved this year, though I really don't comprehend all of the central bank/money supply issues, which might be substantial. There are rumors the Chinese will finally go forward with the "Power of Siberia 2" mega pipeline as well, which would help both avoid having to ship through various circuitous routes/deal with sanctions indirectly. I certainly hope that doesn't happen, though, as it would be a boon to China in particular.

Overnight strikes on Odessa were again disgusting.

That tweet and the referenced Economist article is almost a year old. Things have changed.

Wartime economies often create short term growth at the expense of long-term prosperity. The loss of able body manpower to early death is one reason but also you are investing assets into things that aren't really helpful for your citizens 10+ years down the road. The only caveat is if you are successfully taking over other countries and absorb their economic output (also assumes you didn't destroy their infrastructure in the process).

I think the difference now is indicators are coming from within Russia, from Russian banks, with hard data. The loans big banks are giving to businesses are becoming more and more risky as businesses are becoming over leveraged and struggling to make payments.

Interestingly, I read a report yesterday although I can't remember the source that Russia plans to reduce defense spending next year.

I think putins talk about foreign companies returning (and peace etc) indicates an intent to wind this down. That decision was always likely to be a financial one to their oligarch class.

Nortex can always find an article that Putin bold strategic moves are going to plan

Considering this was supposed to last a couple of weeks and Russia special military operation is now beyond a couple of years in Pretty sure it is not going as well as Putin at al would like

AtticusMatlock said:

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I think the difference now is indicators are coming from within Russia, from Russian banks, with hard data. The loans big banks are giving to businesses are becoming more and more risky as businesses are becoming over leveraged and struggling to make payments.

Interestingly, I read a report yesterday although I can't remember the source that Russia plans to reduce defense spending next year.

---

If the article on the looming Russian financial crisis is correct, I don't see why NATO countries would want to end this anytime soon? I would think they would want to see the Russian economy fail. This does go against Trumps plan for peace I would think? Trump mentioned he was supporting NATA in the Ukraine this week, is that real or a bluff to get Putin to come to the table? Just seems like NATO would want this to drag out another 18 months or so to see what happens ? Just my 2 cents from someone who doesn't know much about any of this

Zelensky's 'wardrobe diplomacy' bit had me laughing:

Quote:

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Since then, Zelenskiy has worked to rebuild relations with Washington, whose military help Kyiv still badly needs, even though the U.S. president has shown no sign of resuming the donations of weaponry that his predecessor Joe Biden had instituted.

When Zelenskiy met Trump at Pope Francis's funeral in Rome in April, he wore a heavy black field jacket and black shirt buttoned to the collar, with no tie.

He sported a similar look when meeting British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London on Monday, and again at the dinner hosted on Tuesday by the Dutch king that preceded Wednesday's NATO summit in The Hague.

---

I find it incredible that even as Russia steadily ramps up drone/missile production and strikes, the response is 'well let's try more of the sanctions that haven't worked,' 'to help Ukraine.'

Russia’s latest attack used around 500 drones and missiles. The growing scale of terror proves the urgency of new sanctions. The EU and the US need them not only for Ukraine, but for themselves. Depriving Russia’s terror machine of resources is now a transatlantic security issue. pic.twitter.com/8tCyCPv9mM

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) June 29, 2025

Another F-16 was shot down. Both sides seem to be preparing for a post-war set of actions, ending the bloodletting should be a priority everyone agrees on imho:

⚡️Ukraine's parliament working on bill to organize post-war elections, speaker says.https://t.co/XMo8dteQZM

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 28, 2025

I didn't see an announcement of this:

The United States has lifted anti-Russian sanctions related to the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary, which is being completed by Rosatom.

These restrictions were introduced under the previous administration of Joe Biden, which as Szijjarto put it, "viewed Hungary as an… pic.twitter.com/9Q3mSjoxT5

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) June 29, 2025

Alex gets to talks/negotiations around 24 minute mark:

Update; sanctions removed on several Russian banks.

BREAKING: Donald Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, allowing U.S. transactions with sanctioned Russian banks — including Sberbank, VTB, and even the Central Bank — for civil nuclear projects. pic.twitter.com/dQrBNpeNz3

— Lev Parnas (@levparnas) June 30, 2025

News says that is the 4th F-16 lost by Ukraine in the war thus far and they were promised as many as 80 by NATO countries though unknown actual current group size. Pretty notable that Ukraine is still flying F-16s around in month 37 of this war when Russia in theory had a significant air asset advantage when this war started.

20 years from now, I wonder how this adventure will have turned out for Russia. I am very skeptical long term this will be good for their country. This war sparked a new arms race between Russia and NATO where Russia has a significant long-term economic disadvantage. Just as the USSR had. Chased Finland into NATO. There will presumably be immense hatred in the Western Ukraine population towards Russia with so many dead that would probably be a nightmare and extremely costly for Russia to either try to govern that country or have to secure and maintain a so called 'Buffer zone'. They have gotten really good at using a bunch of their GDP to make military shells at the opportunity cost of civilian business development. And by all accounts Russia has been facing a gradual decreasing population situation and they just put a generation of their men through a meat grinder.

When you are having to rely on the likes of North Korea, China, and Iran as your main friends…while Western Europe is threatened by you…not a good sign.

Hard to see how the standard of living of the average non-elite Russian going to be better long term by this particular 'forever war' that Russia has jumped all in to. But they will have gotten some land out of it. History with many more years of hind-site will ultimately judge.


Any time I see Russians clapping themselves on the back by any of this, I wish I could ask them 'well, okay, but what is the realistic long term end game of all of this whereby you are going to be objectively better off as a country such was worth this terrible cost?'

nortex97 said:

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Update; sanctions removed on several Russian banks.

BREAKING: Donald Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, allowing U.S. transactions with sanctioned Russian banks — including Sberbank, VTB, and even the Central Bank — for civil nuclear projects. pic.twitter.com/dQrBNpeNz3

— Lev Parnas (@levparnas) June 30, 2025

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Worth noting that these are only related to civillian nuclear energy transactions. All other transactions remain sanctioned.

Teslag said:

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nortex97 said:

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Update; sanctions removed on several Russian banks.

BREAKING: Donald Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, allowing U.S. transactions with sanctioned Russian banks — including Sberbank, VTB, and even the Central Bank — for civil nuclear projects. pic.twitter.com/dQrBNpeNz3

— Lev Parnas (@levparnas) June 30, 2025

---

Worth noting that these are only related to civilian nuclear energy transactions. All other transactions remain sanctioned.

---

Obviously. This relates two-fold to the conflict; (a) keeping Russian nuke engineers (and yes, it's a big industry for them) busy constructing the new NPP in Hungary, and (b) helping Hungary (and others regionally) recover from Zelensky petulantly refusing transit rights for Gazprom, and perhaps as well (c) makes Hungary and all of Central Europe safer.

Quote:

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The Paks nuclear power plant is Hungary's only nuclear facility, located about 100 kilometers south of Budapest. It currently operates four Soviet-designed VVER-440 reactors, commissioned between 1982 and 1987, and generates over 40% of the country's electricity.

The Paks II expansion projectoverseen by Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatomincludes the construction of two additional VVER-1200 reactors.

The contract for the project was signed in 2014, shortly after Russia's annexation of Crimea. The majority of the financing comes from a Russian state loan.

Despite Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hungary has maintained its commitment to the project. In August 2022, the Hungarian government issued a construction permit for Paks II, and in 2023, Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev visited Budapest to discuss further steps with Hungarian officials.
Hungary has consistently opposed efforts within the European Union to impose sanctions on Russia's nuclear sector.

---

Keeping the Russians busy here also probably helps behind closed doors keeping them from helping the lovely Iranian mullah's. This is smart diplomacy by Trump's team, IOW, currying favor with parties with whom we want to negotiate more broadly on other issues related to the SMO.

The Russians are also setting up/working toward several NPP's in Africa. All politics aside, these are projects that will help desperately poor people and should be supported I believe.

I'm glad Russia is helping those desperately poor Africans. If Russia's exploits in Africa have taught us anything, it's that they're all about charity and helping people.

Lugansk:

Quote:

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The Russian military has taken control of the entirety of the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR), local governor Leonid Pasechnik announced on Monday.
The governor made the remarks while speaking live on Russia's Channel One.
"Just two days ago, a report came in that the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic had been fully liberated, 100%,"Pasechnik stated.

---

"Still, soldiers in the area say that holding Sumy is coming at a greater human cost than necessary.

During the half-year that Ukraine held territory in Russia’s Kursk region, soldiers who fought there said they assumed the military would be preparing strong defensive positions… pic.twitter.com/GhVV4H0eC6

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 30, 2025

Sitrep: Russian drone offensive, etc.

Quote:

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Ukrainian officers have issued dire new calls of alarm about the front. Aidar platoon commander Stanislav Bunyatov writes that in almost all combat directions, assault operations are exclusively carried out by 'busified' peoplethat is, Ukrainians who have been press-ganged by the mobilizers, rather than motivated volunteers:

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Cut backs in US aid: about time.

Quote:

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The Pentagon has looked at inventories and will be stopping shipments of some missiles and other munitions. Why? Because we're running dangerously low.

Quote:

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The decision was driven by the Pentagon's policy chief, Elbridge Colby, and was made after a review of Pentagon munitions stockpiles, leading to concerns that the total number of artillery rounds, air defense missiles and precision munitions was sinking, according to three people familiar with the issue.
The initial decision to withhold some aid promised during the Biden administration came in early June, according to the people, but is only taking effect now as Ukraine is beating back some of the largest Russian barrages of missiles and drones at civilian targets in Kyiv and elsewhere.

---

This shouldn't be a surprise. Munitions inventories do not make a cornucopia; we have only a certain number of each type of weapon, and no doubt some Pentagon number crunchers are watching the numbers fall, looking at China out of one corner of their eyes, and raising some objections.
It seems those objections have been heard.

Quote:

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In a statement following the publication of this story, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said that the decision "was made to put America's interests first following a DOD review of our nation's military support and assistance to other countries across the globe. The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned just ask Iran."
Included among the items being pulled back are missiles for Patriot air defense systems, precision artillery rounds, Hellfire and other missiles that Ukraine launches from its F-16 fighters and drones.

---

---

Personally, I don't think the patriots are all that big a deal. They aren't particularly effective at this point, nor are the Excalibur GPS-guided shells (due to jamming).

Sitrep covers the Mesquite ammo plant, which I didn't realize was using a Turkish firm as a subcontractor to GD to set it up.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/02/europe/north-korea-troops-russia-ukraine-intl-cmd

Rumors of yet more North Korea troops planned to be deployed to Ukraine.

1) Why does Russia need any North Korean troops to supplement its own forces?

2) How is North Korea getting compensated?


My sense is the answer to #1 is Putin has been trying to only get the most 'expendable' people in his country killed by this meat grinder (e.g., prisoners, poors in Siberia, etc.) to minimize domestic political unrest from the continuous flow of body bags being returned to sender, and the North Korean Supreme Leader is similarly completely fine killing as many of his own soldiers as Putin likes for a price.

But I wonder what that price is, what Russia is giving them.

Not sure it really matters what NoKo infantry etc. are doing. All they do is train/starve back in North Korea. I am sure the Russians are helping them with various military projects, they have stated as such. Both sides let foreign troops come volunteer/work as mercenaries for them (often mentally ill folks).

We never had an alliance with Ukraine https://t.co/9Ysb0cmpyN

— Mike Howell (@MHowellTweets) July 2, 2025

The grok responses to the underlying thread are somewhat bemusing, making me wonder if AI should have an input role into foreign policy considerations some day;

Ukraine's own parliamentary admissions confirm the military collapse and corruption. The Ukraine Support Act (H.R.2913) itself documents systemic failures: Section 101(a)(3) details Russia's destruction of civilian infrastructure and energy systems, while Section 101(a)(5) notes…

— DOGEai (@dogeai_gov) July 2, 2025

Notes/skepticism about Trump's transactional approach following Gazprombank sanctions lifting (which were left in place by team Peepaw mainly to punish Orban);

Quote:

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A year ago, Hungary managed to have the Paks-2 project removed from the European Union's sanctions list, but at significant political cost. Nevertheless, the Democratic administration in Washington remained unyielding which Budapest saw as a political vendetta for its outspoken support of Trump. Against this backdrop, the current US decision to ease sanctions on Gazprombank looks far more like a favor to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban than to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It also indirectly benefits French firms participating in the Paks-2 project.

The move has rekindled a faint hope that Russian-US relations might see a thaw. Yet overall, there has been precious little positive news from Washington. The State Department recently postponed a scheduled meeting on removing "irritants" from bilateral ties. Trump has shown no enthusiasm for Moscow's offer to mediate between Iran and Israel. And American officials continue to criticize Russia's "hard" stance on a Ukrainian settlement.

Could the Gazprombank decision signal a new phase of improvement in Russian-US relations? Might it foreshadow similar easing for other Russian financial institutions? Could there even be a revival of bilateral high-tech cooperation? One would like to answer these questions with optimism but the evidence simply is not there. Moscow and Washington continue to have fundamentally different approaches to restoring normal relations, and that affects the entire nature of their dialogue.

---

Hopefully Rubio proceeds with the meeting referenced, as the Middle East 'situation' has improved. Meanwhile, escalating attacks from both sides.

North Korea is deploying troops to fight for Russia. They're not mercenaries or foreign volunteers, they're foreign conscripts. AFAIK, Ukraine does not have any foreign military units fighting in their front lines.

Sure, that's true but not sure what your point is. Zelensky has been begging for foreign combatants the entirety of the war, it's just that the European 'advisors' mainly stay encamped to 'train' around Kiev, and no one is willing to send him combat forces. Our industrial 'partners' however, are excited to declare how much they support the Kiev regime:

Anduril had people/hardware in Ukraine two weeks into the invasion. Our autonomous weapons have destroyed hundreds of millions worth of Russia's war machine.

The United States should give them the tools they need to win. It is the fastest path to peace, one way or another. https://t.co/V5dO1kYjTV

— Palmer Luckey (@PalmerLuckey) July 3, 2025

I don't really understand what's going on with Azerbaijan but it is militarily practically a Baltic state. They and the Russians are trading killing/torturing 'journalists.' Zelensky had high praise for them and maybe this cooperation is why.

Looks like Russia is indeed taking out the whole Azeri gang network - the so called NGOs - and so the whole spy ring - which worked closely with Israel and Ukraine.
They were even involved in the sneaky drone attack on the strategic bomber fleet.
That is why Aliev is reacting…

— -- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 -- (@GeromanAT) July 1, 2025

Whatever, green goblin and Trump will have a phone call tomorrow. Journalistic fireworks will probably follow as they both report out how the conversation went. Hopefully this time Trump has permission from his NSC/CIA advisors as to what to say.

The Economist: The U.S. has paused military aid to Ukraine. While the Pentagon calls it a temporary and limited measure, Ukrainian officials fear it may be part of coordinated pressure, possibly from Trump’s circle, to push Ukraine into political concessions. pic.twitter.com/HzXPwINePw

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 3, 2025

Russian advances continue to accelerate, so applying pressure to Z-man to cease with his ultimatum/hardline peace term demands probably makes sense, imho.

Trump-Putin call…apparently didn't go well. Trump said he made zero progress.

Russia strikes 'back' over Ukrainian strikes in Russia:

Quote:

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In a statement on Friday, the ministry said its forces had launched a massive strike overnight in retaliation for "the terrorist acts of the Kiev regime," adding that it involved long-range precision weapons, Kinzhal air-based hypersonic missiles, and drones.

The attack targeted industrial enterprises developing and producing drones and other robotic mobile systems, facilities manufacturing various military equipment in Kiev, as well as a military airfield and an oil refinery in an undisclosed location, officials said.

"The goal of the strike has been achieved. All designated facilities have been hit," the ministry added.
[url=https://www.rt.com/russia/620968-kiev-missile-drone-strikes-fires/][/url]
Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky described the attack as "one of the largest airstrikes" the country has faced, claiming it involved 550 aerial targets of various kinds, including 330 drones. He added that the raid affected Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkov, and Chernigov regions, resulting in 23 people being injured.

---

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine has lost 40% of its working-age population. To restore the economy, the country needs 4–5 million people.

So all the armchair patriots calling refugees “traitors” who shouldn’t come back might want to start with the basics… pic.twitter.com/LY7NRBD8mG

— Marta Havryshko (@HavryshkoMarta) July 3, 2025

The Ukrainians seem to be handing over the locations of 'recruiting offices' to the Russians to strike, more and more.

Trump had a long phone call with Putin and admitted that he didn't make any progress with Putin wrt Ukraine.

Washington is finally realising that the outcome of the Ukraine SMO. is non-negotiable unless the core reasons for Russia starting the SMO are addressed.

Meanwhile the…

— The Sirius Report (@thesiriusreport) July 4, 2025

Forever war.

It's only a forever because the KGB trained guy on one side who wants to restore the old Soviet Union won't stop. Unnecessary wars of choice are always forever wars.

FIDO_Ags said:

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It's only a forever because the KGB trained guy on one side who wants to restore the old Soviet Union won't stop. Unnecessary wars of choice are always forever wars.

---

Russian hardliners have boxed themselves in with regime change and essentially taking the entire country being a requirement for peace. Classic 'forever war' mistake.

I kind of chuckled at this, need some levity this morning. Also reported elsewhere.

🇷🇺 Andrey Badalov, VP of Russia’s state oil pipeline giant Transneft, died after falling allegedly from a 17th-floor balcony in Moscow — despite living on the 10th floor.

Yeah … pic.twitter.com/r9ANpekZIR

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) July 4, 2025

Sigh…

WSJ reports that Russia is preparing for a summer of relentless attacks on Ukraine, intensifying offensives and missile strikes across the country as U.S. military aid, including air defenses, remains on hold.

Citing ISW, WSJ says about 50,000 Russian troops have been… pic.twitter.com/wkyFoxKmR2

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 4, 2025

Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, warned on July 4 that Russian Shahed drone strikes could increase to 1,000 per day, prompting Ukraine to consider relocating drone production.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 4, 2025

1,000/day seems implausible to me.
Macron also had his first conversation in 3 years with Putin.

RT on Zelensky/Russian meeting;

Quote:

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In an interview with First Sevastopol TV released on Saturday, Zakharova was asked why she believes the Ukrainian leader is so insistent on meeting with Putin. "Because he needs to reaffirm his legitimacy, not through legal procedures, but by any other means to prove that he is in power," she stated.

Zelensky's five-year presidential term ended in May 2024, but he refused to hold a new election, citing martial law. Moscow has declared him illegitimate, insisting that under Ukrainian law, legal authority now rests with the parliament.

According to Zakharova, Zelensky also seeks a meeting with Putin because he is driven by "a monstrous fear of being consigned to oblivion."

"He is insanely afraid of being forgotten, of becoming unnecessary for the West. That somehow the West will sideline him. And you can see he doesn't step away from the microphones. I think he already sleeps with a webcam," she said.

Zelensky has on numerous occasions insisted that he wants to meet with Putin, describing this as a prerequisite for peace.

---

That's about right. I see Blackrock gave up on finding investors for a 'post-war Ukraine' even though they have rights to a lot of land/resources if this happens:

The reason why is very simple - Ukraine is in all likelihood going to surrender and default on its debts, and if it gets reconstructed at all it will be by the Russians. https://t.co/Qnc7xx8T2o

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) July 5, 2025

Sort of weird:

BREAKING:

Laos will send soldiers to Russia to help them against Ukraine in the Kursk region.

The Laotian soldiers are supposed to demine the area and help free up Russian soldiers who will then go to fight in Ukraine itself. Laos has been a communist state since 1975.

🇱🇦🇷🇺 pic.twitter.com/5FwLf3e8is

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 5, 2025

Kiev attempted (5th time?) to strike the Kerch bridge using storm shadows, and yet again failed I read. Their obsession with those bridges defies explanation to me, but whatever, I guess it's a quasi-legitimate target.

Update: Rubio and Lavrov to meet at AEAN summit amid Trump criticism about Putin willingness to concede terms for peace he has laid out since 2022.

Quote:

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The public schedule on the State Department's website listed a meeting between Rubio and Lavrov scheduled for Kuala Lumpur, where both are attending the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum.

Talks between the two diplomats are expected to take place at 6pm local time (10am GMT), according to the State Department.
"I can confirm that a meeting is in the works," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told TASS on Thursday.
[url=https://www.rt.com/news/621225-trump-putin-kremlin-peskov/][/url]
Earlier this week, Trump lashed out at Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of being unwilling to settle the Ukraine conflict. "We get a lot of bullsh*t thrown at us by Putin,"the US leader claimed.
Putin "is very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless" in terms of ending the fighting, Trump said. Moscow maintains that it is ready for a diplomatic solution with Kiev, but insists that it should be legally binding and address the root causes of the crisis.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that the Russian authorities treat Trump's comments "calmly," explaining that the US president's style "generally is quite harsh in terms of the phrases that he uses."
"We are committed to continuing our dialogue with Washington and our policy of repairing the significantly damaged bilateral relations," Peskov noted.

---

There is a fresh sanctions bill (but, notably, not a Ukrainian 'aid' bill) moving through the congressional process which Trump said he might now sign, I dunno. Meanwhile, Russia just hit Kiev/Lutsk proper, mainly with over 700 drones. This makes me wonder if the rumors of the gov't planning to evacuate to Lvov are true.

Kiev got hit hard during the night with combined attacks of missiles and drones. Hopefully we’ll get some good footage. pic.twitter.com/7rs8nSSLqm

— Gabe (@GabeZZOZZ) July 10, 2025

5 key points; Ukraine has already lost the war.

Quote:

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This harsh reality poses a significant threat to Ukraine. As Russia tightens its grip on the contested oblasts, the chances of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive grow increasingly slim. The belief that Ukraine can reclaim its territory through military action is becoming a distant fantasy.
The balance of power has shifted decisively in Russia's favor, and any attempts by Ukraine to restore that balance could lead to further territorial losses. The grim truth is that Kyiv is unlikely to create the conditions necessary for the return of Crimea, which has become deeply woven into Russia's political and military fabric.
The longer the conflict drags on, the more entrenched Russia becomes, making any future diplomatic efforts more challenging for Ukraine. Given these circumstances, Ukraine and its European allies must reconsider their strategic objectives. Relying solely on military solutions and the assumption that increased military aid will lead to victory is not only misguided but also dangerous.

---

About right, as I have believed this is true for years now. And sending a purported 10 Patriot missiles to Kiev is not going to…impact anything. Nanofuhrer is in Rome to meet with the Pope for the camera's again, beg for more money from Italian PM. Kremlin released a statement they are waiting for Kiev to issue something related to a third round of negotiations.

Impossible

uKrAiNe CaN't LoSe If OnE sOvReIgN bLaDe Of GrAsS eXiStS

This conflict feels more and more like the late stage of a poker game between Putin and the Globalist West. The river card is out and Putin has the high hand. The other players are burning through money going all in and trying to get more from their girlfriend watching from behind.

"Kiev is winning the war of attrition."-NAFO types on X. Publicly available data reported by both sides of KIA/Body exchanges:

Ratio for exchanges of KIA soldiers over time. Red is Russian bodies returned to Russia at each exchange, blue is Ukrainian bodies returned to Ukraine. Graphic by @lostarmour pic.twitter.com/G8SspdU5je

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 21, 2025

Russians are now continuing to/ramping up strikes on 'conscription' (press gang) offices in Ukraine. These targets are often provided by Ukrainians on social media/map apps. It's widely reported the conscription thugs are paid $500-ish per abductee.

Reports suggest that the Odesa regional TCC office was hit by 4 Gerans.

— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) July 11, 2025

Comedy turned Farce; 10 missiles.

Quote:

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You're probably thinkingthat's 10 full missile launchers, a hefty offering!
Butmind-blowing as it may soundthe 10 missiles appears to refer to just that: 10 actual missile interceptors; as in, the ammunition.
In the article, Trump asks Germany to send a fully battery while he sends 10 missiles. This is a strange request, as 10 missile launchers would represent a battery themselves, thus the distinction would not be necessary to make. In fact, that is almost two batteries, with each battery costing upwards of $2.5B dollars in export terms; $5B is an extremely unlikely amount from Trump, given that his new package aims to gift a mere $300M, as stated earlier.
Also, the previously-'frozen' aid verifiably contained "30 Patriot missiles"as in, the actual ammunition itselfas can be cross-checked through various mainstream sources. Here, Reuters:
So, if this much-vaunted shipment generated so much bafflegab over a mere 30 missiles, then it's conceivable Trump's announcement of an additional 10 pertains to the ammunition. Keep in mind, Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles cost upwards of $10M each. That means another mere 10 missiles would be as much as $100M, which certainly makes sense within the context.

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IOW, blah blah blah. And, I should note, part of the 'scam' probably involves getting the Germans primarily to pay for this stuff;

In keeping with how weapons transfers to Ukraine typically work, this will be a complex and obscure series of sales, "loans," and "donations." Merz recently said Germany would like to purchase multiple full Patriot batteries, which they will then "sell" to Ukraine, while the US… https://t.co/tmetG003HH

— Amerikanets 📉 (@ripplebrain) July 11, 2025

Whatever, forever war.

https://nestcentre.org/the-unknown-toll/

Fairly recent article regarding trying to estimate the number of Russians killed in Ukraine thus far.

Even the most conservative estimates at least partly verified through obituaries and other independent sources has 110,000 - 150,000 killed as of June this year (first 40 months).

United States lost 58,220 killed in Vietnam War over about 10 years. Russia appears to have lost at least twice that in a third of the time in this 'Special Operation' but I think that is often shrugged off as just some Russians from the most expendable part of the population bring sacrificed for the good of the Motherland. Like a bunch of meaningless worker ants getting squashed to protect the Queen.

No democratically elected government would be able survive such enormous cost, but Putin's totalitarian grip means he can continuing driving Russia through this quagmire and throwing away Russian lives for a long time if that is his wish.

Russia has set the conditions for a 'Forever War'. Putin has clearly stated the objective is regime change in Kiev and a disarmed Ukraine. Complete surrender as an independent country.

Which means a significant portion of western Ukraine population will fight to the bitter end as an existential crisis, which means the current and feared increased refugee crisis and fears of additional Russian aggression will drive Western
Europe to continue supporting Ukraine, and which means U.S. will have no choice but to in turn support Western Europe due to huge economic and military ties with those fellow EU and NATO countries.

This won't end until Putin and Russia tires of the 'Forever War'. Who knows how long that will be because Putin has seemed to have somewhat boxed himself into this being an existential issue that all of Ukraine must be taken.

Paradoxically, the best way to end this 'Forever War' is to make it crystal clear to Putin and Russia that there is no end in sight. A 'Forever War' it definitely is. Has to be crystal clear that Ukraine is never going give up and that Western Europe and U.S. are never going to stop backing them. And through sanctions and tactics and support, you make the 'attrition' process as costly to Russia as reasonable possible.

And hope eventually Russia recognizes there is truly no identifiable end to it and fatigued by the cost is finally ready to negotiate.

Won't surprise me if 5 years from now, this thing is still hot. Might take at least several more years until this thing simmers out. We'll see. At a Horrible horrible cost to both Ukraine and Russia.

If I'm Russia, I don't know if I agree to a peace deal. A couple more years and Ukraine will crumble and he can get the whole thing.