My neighbor's basketball goal keeps falling close to my house. Luckily it already fell this morning so we should be good to go.

Keep us updated!

Unfortunately, these guys aren't very good at forecasting. We are in the clear for today and we shall see if we even get as much rain as they are predicting next few days.

currently not looking too bad as it enters tarrant county

East Arkansas and Memphis under 5/5 risk tonight for EF-3+

That's terrifying

Just a bit of rain, nothing severe in Allen.

mAgnoliAg said:

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East Arkansas and Memphis under 5/5 risk tonight for EF-3+

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Is it still too early or are they busting? Haven't seen a high end tornado quite yet. Seems like the last hour and the next hour would be prime time.

The PDS watch out in arkansas up through Tennessee hasn't even really gotten started. Going to be a long evening.

Activity picking up. Not sure if there is an observed warning yet.

No cap here over the metroplex. Anything that goes up tonight gonna pop.

Eight tornado warnings in Arkansas right now.

FTAG 2000 said:

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No cap here over the metroplex. Anything that goes up tonight gonna pop.

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Bring the hail.

Ok, spoke too soon. Tornado emergency, huge tornado in NE Ark

Posted before but Ryan Hall Y'all YouTube channel has great coverage of the storms.

19 tornado warnings including two PDS warnings right now. Rough.

The Collective said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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No cap here over the metroplex. Anything that goes up tonight gonna pop.

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Bring the hail.

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**** that

t&p to your fence

Haha my fence is solid. Already rebuilt most of it and the rest is prepped to survive til summer. It's just the roof I'm worried about. Don't really want to have to replace it this year. We have other things to spend that money on

I'm both prepared for my ranch truck to get destroyed, or not see a single drop of rain.

I've seen level 5 warnings turn into nothing and level 1 warnings turn into a tornado that ravaged my childhood home and moved my parents out of my hometown.

All I know is my little girl will be running to our room/bed at the first loud thunder.

Brandon Copic (spelling) has some spectacular video from Arkansas tonight. That was one intense tornado.

226 tornado warnings in the last 16 hours, from Arkansas up through Indiana. Sheesh.

Those overnight hailers forecasted for dfw are way behind. Still out to the west but might miss us to the north.

yeah it looks like they are going to miss the metroplex. I'm willing to bet we've only received a .1-.25in over the past few days.

No hail, but we definitely got a lot of rain in NE McKinney last night. Came through around 4 AM

We are at 0.33in in Coppell over the last 2 days. Hopefully the next couple days will be uneventful, slow soaking rain....

winds were whipping early this morning but not a lot of vertical lift here in DFW evidently

Decent showers in Southwest ftw an hour ago

I'm just looking for these guys to actually get one forecast correct and we all get some heavy rain. As far as that tornado outbreak yesterday the chances of that ever happening around here are highly unlikely. Conditions generally never line up like they do over Arkansas, Mississippi. Tennesse and Bama.

JR Ewingford said:

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I'm just looking for these guys to actually get one forecast correct and we all get some heavy rain.

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I have been thinking about weather forecasting accuracy a bit. What would be your acceptable margin of error?

aggiesherpa said:

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JR Ewingford said:

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I'm just looking for these guys to actually get one forecast correct and we all get some heavy rain.

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I have been thinking about weather forecasting accuracy a bit. What would be your acceptable margin of error?

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It's more sensationalism than them being right. They don't do a good job of describing how the % works. Meaning… says it's 70% chance of rain with a level 3 risk of severe and medium chance those that are will have hail. I don't know the exact % but say level3 is 50 and medium is as well. So that means for your specific footprint where you are that is basically 70%*50%*50% of getting rain. So 17.5% of area would get hail of some sort.

This is on higher end. But north texas is very big and when you see a map with a big area saying level 3 risk. Have to take it with a grain of salt.

Nothing so far has warranted an enhanced risk as we have had. What really sucks is we basically are missing meaningful rain. The multi day severe weather event they have predicted is going to end with a big thud as well.

6am this morning watching ch11 (padgett) and ch8 (fields) and they are talking about the storms out west and how big the hail is and not one time did they mention if those storms were going to hold together and enter the metroplex. Also no future radar cast. Maybe I need to try another station. I own a landscape company and trying to decide if or when to start my crews.

aggiesherpa said:

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JR Ewingford said:

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I'm just looking for these guys to actually get one forecast correct and we all get some heavy rain.

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I have been thinking about weather forecasting accuracy a bit. What would be your acceptable margin of error?

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I'd have to go back but multi day totals of 2-4in were forecast and obviously that's not even close so far. I look at some of the models most forecasters use, a lot have hit on everything north, northeast and east of here. Most models seemed to indicate that would happen. I question why they have been gung-ho around here. If you believe them the only real event will be late Friday night.

It happens and I get your point. I've said many times here and over the winter threads that the more precise they try to get, the farther they get from being able to accurately predict at a bigger scale.