So we are threatening to walk away from a "peace" process we initiated (and insisted upon) and that neither party wanted? After all of 3 months?

That is a threat to only one party in this, which is not surprising.

Crimea was first

[If you can't post your questions without being insulting don't post on the thread. -Staff]

Trump said he was going to end that conflict in 1 day once elected. Because he is Donald Trump, Master of Negotiation. He quipped that he'd tell Zelensky to stop, and tell Putin to stop, and both of those guys would stop because Trump asked them to.

More seriously, if this plays out where the conflict simply continues and the only thing the U.S. can do is take their ball and go home...you have to wonder if Trump messed up any chance for negotiating peace by giving up the negotiation leverage of the U.S. still willing to back Ukraine. Basically weakened the U.S. negotiation position right off the bat by eliminating that possible option.

So if you're Putin, and you know that all you have to do is stall and play mind games with the Trump administration, worst case for you is eventually the U.S. throws up their hands and leaves the room and you just continue your war of attrition and territorial expansion less impeded.

I give Trump an A+ on the U.S. border control issue thus far. But not impressed thus far with the geopolitical related performance. Russia - Ukraine war still going and now he may be reduced to simply 'Okay, well...we're Out!' which would not be an impressive 'peace' negotiation result...Middle east...not much change to speak of, and TBD whether all this trade war, tariff on/off/on/off stuff, and bully ball adversarial positions with allies is going to be best for U.S. long term interests in the world.

It's obvious you have no intent of actually having a discussion on the topic so I'm not even going to humor you.

There are a lot of reasons to help Ukraine bring this to a close. Many are outlined here: https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/51165

Yeah, for the "critical thinkers" it's the Kyiv Post, but it's also an opinion piece that makes very good points. It's worth the read.

For one, China is helping Russia and vice versa. That means every lesson Russia learns, China also learns. Much of this relates to modern drone, EW, and AI warfare. This isn't how future wars will be fought, it's how current wars are fought. We are very behind in these areas in terms of hardware development and tactics. China is learning a lot right now from Russian operations, and they're likely working in close concert. We're no longer doing that with the Ukrainians, and we'll likely pay for those lessons in blood later. We aren't prepared for the low cost, high volume autonomous weapons that are going to be coming out of this war.

For two, this may be one of the most documented wars ever fought, and the point that there is an immense value in all of the drone footage cannot be overstated. There is incredible value in all of that for training operators and be defenders, but also AI algorithms. Think of Tesla building their FSD algorithms and how they need immense training data sets gleaned from countless miles driven by their vehicles. Drones flying on computer vision need the same kind of training sets. Drones using computer vision terminal guidance to avoid jamming also need it. Building those data sets can take a lot of time, but in Ukraine that data already exists. It also exists in Russia and likely China.

For three, our development and procurement cycles are way too long. Ukraine is learning how to adapt to changing tactics and strategies across new modes of warfare on the fly, and their industry is moving right along with them. In a very to short time they've been able to develop and girls highly effective drone boats, UAV's, loitering munitions, long range rockets, and other home grown weapons. Three years ago a lot of what they're using now was in its infancy or even on the horizon. I'm that time they've sunk a Russian guided missile cruiser with homegrown anti-ship missiles, destroyed a multitude of Russian surface vessels with small, long range USV's, and started engaging land and air targets with them. They're also hitting strategic targets deep inside Russian territory with home grown drones and missiles. If Ukraine can develop these kinds of weapons this quickly and implement them to great effect, we should expect China to be learning some lessons and to potentially be on the receiving end of this as well. Our military and industry could likely learn a lot from Ukraine's adaptability and experience in all of these areas and more.

The longer this war drags on, the more Russia and China get to perfect the weaponry we're most likely to face in the future. The less we're involved, the less we learn and have access to in order to counter those threats. This is like the Germans testing and developing weapons and tactics in the Spanish Civil War while also getting real combat experience. We need to seize the opportunity for containment instead of turning a blind eye.

Skimmed the bottom 1/3 of Page 1...

We're certainly offering incentives to both sides, and those incentives are surely what we're threatening to walk away from.

Yes we want the minerals deal with Ukraine. We want and need those REE (Rare Earth Elements).

Russia needs money. They are certainly financially strained by this. We've sanctioned their oil production, which has left them to sell on a gray market, and this is causing them all sorts of problems. None of the major international insurance companies will issue insurance for vessels (tankers) moving Russian crude. This has led to Russia repurposing smaller inland waterway tankers for open ocean work (at least 2 have broken in half and sank in the Black Sea). It also limits their buyers. So primarily China has been buying discounted Russian crude.

So what could energy deals with Putin look like? Lifting sanctions on Russian crude and natural gas would bring international tankers and insurance back to their ports. This would also reopen non-Chinese markets to full price Russian energy. Putin gets more cash AND the Chinese pay more for oil that they desperately need. It would also put more oil on the global markets which would serve to suppress global prices; not great for US O&G Companies, but good for US manufacturing and the greater economy.

javajaws said:

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I think Trump eventually is going to have to play hardball with someone. He's made a bunch of promises but is almost universally failing so far (on his foreign policy objectives). People think they can wait him out and so far that is turning out to be true. So I think very soon he's going to have to make a choice and come down hard on someone - Russia, China, somebody or else risk getting ignored across the board.

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Too late. He's quickly lost most of the respect he had built up in his first term. Maybe getting soft in his later years? Very common, even amongst some of the most dominant men.

Great points! The little bit of money we're spending to be involved will no doubt leave us better prepared for the future.

And don't forget North Korea and Iran. You can bet that rocket man is getting whatever he wants out of this. Not the time for us to stick our heads in the sand.

Unfortunately, a lot of people are focused on past politics and Biden corruptions. Rather than what is best for our longterm future.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Putin doesn't care about the personal wealth. He wants to be a historic figure for Russia and taking territory will do that. He doesn't mind being notorious or infamous for the rest of the world if Russian history makes him a Russian hero figure. It is that simple.

I think Zelensky has become similar on a smaller scale but as the leader of the defense of Ukraine. He wants the attention from playing that role.

Both of them have and will have plenty of access to wealth. That is not their respective concerns. The money argument is just not correct here, not for the leaders at least.

Wealth isn't going to move either one of them. An outcome to the war that either can parley into a historic reputational success is what matters to each of them.

Trump did in fact state he would lean hard on whoever would not negotiate in good faith. He leaned on Ukraine and they relented. He has played relatively nice with Russia so far and they have not negotiated in good faith. If Trump is true to his word, he will increase sanctions and supply Ukraine adequately to inflict battlefield defeat on Russia, as he said he would to bring about the end to the war by negotiations. I'm curious to see at what point that will be done.

Can Trump afford to swallow a historic failure after all of his braggadocio?

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pagerman @ work said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Trump said he was going to end that conflict in 1 day once elected. Because he is Donald Trump, Master of Negotiation. He quipped that he'd tell Zelensky to stop, and tell Putin to stop, and both of those guys would stop because Trump asked them to.

More seriously, if this plays out where the conflict simply continues and the only thing the U.S. can do is take their ball and go home...you have to wonder if Trump messed up any chance for negotiating peace by giving up the negotiation leverage of the U.S. still willing to back Ukraine. Basically weakened the U.S. negotiation position right off the bat by eliminating that possible option.

So if you're Putin, and you know that all you have to do is stall and play mind games with the Trump administration, worst case for you is eventually the U.S. takes their ball and goes home and you just continue your war of attrition and territorial expansion less impeded.

I give Trump an A+ on the U.S. border control issue thus far. But not impressed thus far with the geopolitical related performance. Russia - Ukraine war still going and now he may be reduced to simply 'Okay, well...we're Out!' which would not be an impressive 'peace' negotiation result...Middle east...not much change to speak of, and TBD whether all this trade war, tariff on/off/on/off stuff, and bully ball adversarial positions with allies is going to best for U.S. long term interests in the world.

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Of course he did.

It was a stupid course of action driven by hubris and naivete.

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Hubris, maybe. Naivety, doubtful.

Yeah, they're definitely getting something from all this as well. Iran and Russia are trading missile and drone technology, and we shouldn't pretend like they're not getting more capable. The Tower 22 attack that killed 3 US soldiers and wounded 45 others was committed by Iraqi militia using a drone probably supplied by or built with the assistance of the Iranian military. We're looking at accelerated, next gen warfare and absolutely need to be ready. A lot of emerging technologies are going to play a role similar to radar in WWII and night vision and digital fire control in Desert Storm. They will be massive advantages on the battlefield that can turn the tide. We've gotten used to being the best equipped force on the battlefield, and probably even complacent. Looking at what's going on, there should be an incredible sense of urgency to make doctrinal shifts, but we're actively pushing away one of the best potential partners to learn exactly what those should be and how best to implement them.

Really?

"Trump has no foreign policy success."

Ask the Houthis in Yemen about that.

LMCane said:

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Really?

"Trump has no foreign policy success."

Ask the Houthis in Yemen about that.

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Do they even count? What about the part of holding Iran responsible?

CS78 said:

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LMCane said:

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Really?

"Trump has no foreign policy success."

Ask the Houthis in Yemen about that.

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Do they even count? What about the part of holding Iran responsible?

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I don't need to ask the Houthis - I asked Pete's wife instead.

Seriously though - Houthis? That's the equivalent of our military swatting flies. Hardly something to crow about on the world stage.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat?

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Of course. The pressure is on Ukraine to end this. There is no pressure on Russia. We can't put much pressure on Russia.

We don't want ourselves in a hot war. We don't want nukes dropped. We don't want WWIII. We don't want a China-Russia-Iran axis of evil. We don't want massive forever spending as we're 37+ trillion dollars in debt already. Russia knows this.

Pressure can only be put on Ukraine to say uncle so all the killing can stop and Ukraine and Euros can only pressure us to keep funding the proxy war to keep the spending and killing going longer.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat? What do they stand to lose by the US declining further involvement?

It's just a very very strange threat for a supposed mediator to make if you are trying to encourage an end and incentivize participation.

It does achieve making the USA look relatively impotent and inconsequential and that surely doesn't help us in our own negotiations.

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I think Vance is talking to Ukraine. Ukraine needs us to have skin in the game to give a ****, and that's where the minerals deal comes into play. If Z signs the mineral deal then Trump will be forced to protect his investment/resources and stand up to Putin. Until that happens, Putin is free to walk all over Ukraine.

We need to stop wasting time until Z gets more reasonable and realizes that he doesn't hold any cards.

Money quote of the day:

Eliminatus said:

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"Maybe it's all 100D chess and Art of the Deal and whatever MAGA uses to get themselves off with this week."

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oh no said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat?

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Of course. The pressure is on Ukraine to end this. There is no pressure on Russia. We can't put much pressure on Russia.

We don't want ourselves in a hot war. We don't want nukes dropped. We don't want WWIII. We don't want a China-Russia-Iran axis of evil. We don't want massive forever spending as we're 37+ trillion dollars in debt already. Russia knows this.

Pressure can only be put on Ukraine to say uncle so all the killing can stop and Ukraine and Euros can only pressure us to keep funding the proxy war to keep the spending and killing going longer.

---

Yes. The only pressure that would possibly scare putin into concessions would be a real threat of western boots on the ground. Nothing else moves the needle, at this point

Putin is playing the looooooong game and he is never going to accept a peace deal without the whole peace of Ukraine under Rusko control.

Who?mikejones! said:

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oh no said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat?

---

Of course. The pressure is on Ukraine to end this. There is no pressure on Russia. We can't put much pressure on Russia.

We don't want ourselves in a hot war. We don't want nukes dropped. We don't want WWIII. We don't want a China-Russia-Iran axis of evil. We don't want massive forever spending as we're 37+ trillion dollars in debt already. Russia knows this.

Pressure can only be put on Ukraine to say uncle so all the killing can stop and Ukraine and Euros can only pressure us to keep funding the proxy war to keep the spending and killing going longer.

---

Yes. The only pressure that would possibly scare putin into concessions would be a real threat of western boots on the ground. Nothing else moves the needle, at this point

---

The pressure would come from continuing to provide Ukraine with weapons to allow them to fight.

Ukraine continuing to kill Russians and invade Russian territory is the pressure point, along with continued sanctions.

And while it would not "scare" Putin, it would let him know he wasn't going to get what he wanted and would be making his country an international pariah.

And for all this concern about nukes, no one seems to be worried about essentially declaring economic war on China; they have over 400 ICBM with nukes, every one of which can hit the US.

"Walk away" sounds like a victory for Russia. They don't seem terribly bothered by the sanctions we've put on them so far, and as far as I know we haven't dangled any other carrots besides that for accepting to basically let them take their conquered territory and go home.

I'm wondering what the stick is if Russia refuses. If there isn't one, I'm losing confidence in Trump as a negotiator.

For those thinking Russia has this unending supply of manpower and endless stockpile of weapons and think they can't be brought to their knees, keep two things in mind:
1. They are using North Korean artillery shells. NORTH KOREA.

2. The mujahideen, numbering far fewer than the Ukrainian military and armed with U.S. equipment forced a Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The Russians have limits to their capabilities.

pagerman @ work said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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oh no said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat?

---

Of course. The pressure is on Ukraine to end this. There is no pressure on Russia. We can't put much pressure on Russia.

We don't want ourselves in a hot war. We don't want nukes dropped. We don't want WWIII. We don't want a China-Russia-Iran axis of evil. We don't want massive forever spending as we're 37+ trillion dollars in debt already. Russia knows this.

Pressure can only be put on Ukraine to say uncle so all the killing can stop and Ukraine and Euros can only pressure us to keep funding the proxy war to keep the spending and killing going longer.

---

Yes. The only pressure that would possibly scare putin into concessions would be a real threat of western boots on the ground. Nothing else moves the needle, at this point

---

The pressure would come from continuing to provide Ukraine with weapons to allow them to fight.

Ukraine continuing to kill Russians and invade Russian territory is the pressure point, along with continued sanctions.

And while it would not "scare" Putin, it would let him know he wasn't going to get what he wanted and would be making his country an international pariah.

And for all this concern about nukes, no one seems to be worried about essentially declaring economic war on China; they have over 400 ICBM with nukes, every one of which can hit the US.

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I don't think outin cares much that ukraine is getting some western weapons. It ultimately means little because the weapons will not win the Ukrainians the war.

Worked for the afghans, but don't let history get in the way of your thinking.

pagerman @ work said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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oh no said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

---

Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat?

---

Of course. The pressure is on Ukraine to end this. There is no pressure on Russia. We can't put much pressure on Russia.

We don't want ourselves in a hot war. We don't want nukes dropped. We don't want WWIII. We don't want a China-Russia-Iran axis of evil. We don't want massive forever spending as we're 37+ trillion dollars in debt already. Russia knows this.

Pressure can only be put on Ukraine to say uncle so all the killing can stop and Ukraine and Euros can only pressure us to keep funding the proxy war to keep the spending and killing going longer.

---

Yes. The only pressure that would possibly scare putin into concessions would be a real threat of western boots on the ground. Nothing else moves the needle, at this point

---

The pressure would come from continuing to provide Ukraine with weapons to allow them to fight.

Ukraine continuing to kill Russians and invade Russian territory is the pressure point, along with continued sanctions.

And while it would not "scare" Putin, it would let him know he wasn't going to get what he wanted and would be making his country an international pariah.

---

well, but that's still my point- we can't really put much pressure on Russia. The only pressure we can offer is continued proxy warring with them, but they already know we've got spending fatigue and our new POTUS ran on making the killing and spending stop. The pressure we can effectively apply is really only on Ukraine to accept a deal and everyone knows it.

javajaws said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Putin doesn't care about the personal wealth. He wants to be a historic figure for Russia and taking territory will do that. He doesn't mind being notorious or infamous for the rest of the world if Russian history makes him a Russian hero figure. It is that simple.

I think Zelensky has become similar on a smaller scale but as the leader of the defense of Ukraine. He wants the attention from playing that role.

Both of them have and will have plenty of access to wealth. That is not their respective concerns. The money argument is just not correct here, not for the leaders at least.

Wealth isn't going to move either one of them. An outcome to the war that either can parley into a historic reputational success is what matters to each of them.

Trump did in fact state he would lean hard on whoever would not negotiate in good faith. He leaned on Ukraine and they relented. He has played relatively nice with Russia so far and they have not negotiated in good faith. If Trump is true to his word, he will increase sanctions and supply Ukraine adequately to inflict battlefield defeat on Russia, as he said he would to bring about the end to the war by negotiations. I'm curious to see at what point that will be done.

Can Trump afford to swallow a historic failure after all of his braggadocio?

---

I think Trump eventually is going to have to play hardball with someone. He's made a bunch of promises but is almost universally failing so far (on his foreign policy objectives). People think they can wait him out and so far that is turning out to be true. So I think very soon he's going to have to make a choice and come down hard on someone - Russia, China, somebody or else risk getting ignored across the board.

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Like MOAB II?

They are also using NK soldiers
Obviously they are running out of cannon fodder

Why is this war our problem?

FIDO_Ags said:

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Worked for the afghans, but don't let history get in the way of your thinking.

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Thats great for the Afghans, but it's not working for the Ukrainians. They've lost 20-25% of their country, in addition to the slice of Russia they once had. I don't follow your point about history.

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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in addition to the slice of Russia they once had. I don't follow your point about history.

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you realize 100% of Ukraine was part of Russia for about 100 years until 1991, right?


and Crimea held a referendum, overwhelmingly supported rejoining Russia themselves, declared independence, and requested to rejoin Russia --- in 2014. Ukraine isn't getting Crimea back as any part of this deal. They have no leverage for Crimea.