Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

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ak451ag
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10:45a, 4/23/25


There is still hope.


I hope Putin is being sincere.
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MouthBQ98
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10:48a, 4/23/25
AG
Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat? What do they stand to lose by the US declining further involvement?

It's just a very very strange threat for a supposed mediator to make if you are trying to encourage an end and incentivize participation.

It does achieve making the USA look relatively impotent and inconsequential and that surely doesn't help us in our own negotiations.
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agdoc2001
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10:48a, 4/23/25
AG
I couldn't disagree with JDV here any more strongly. It's actually beyond time for the US to walk away from this process.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to agdoc2001 • 10:51a, 4/23/25
AG
We put ourselves into it. It's just a weird threat to make.
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Broseph
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10:53a, 4/23/25
AG
Im guessing the US proposed incentives for both sides to come to the table. If we walk away, they dont get those incentives from us. We are deeper into this than we should be but maybe worth it if we get mineral rights in Ukraine.
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ak451ag
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10:55a, 4/23/25
I don't interpret "walking away from this process" as meaning the U.S. will walk away from this conflict or prospects for peace in the future. If Russia refuses Trump's deal, then the U.S. could start arming and supporting the Ukrainian war efforts again.
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Tea Party
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10:57a, 4/23/25
We should walk away from involvement in this mess.

Let the EU have greater involvement if they think Russia is that big of a threat or this war is causing them excessive harm.
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Eliminatus
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11:05a, 4/23/25
AG
lol at Putin being sincere.

He is just following the playbook our enemies have on us and was written 50+ years ago. You don't need to beat us. You just need to outlast us. Which is exceedingly easy these days. If (and when) the US walks away, Putin will have won the greatest victory yet in this war. Just by toying with Trump et al. and getting him all ruffled and out of sorts.

Maybe all this was planned and this was all just the motions. Maybe it's all 100D chess and Art of the Deal and whatever MAGA uses to get themselves off with this week. I honestly just subscribe to the idea that Trump was outplayed and out politicked from every direction at every step and from the outside looking in, (no insider info) it was embarrassingly simple to do so.

Also having Witkoff in charge of ALL these negotiations; Ukraine, Iran, Gaza, is so f'ing stupid that it literally beggars belief to me. What a clownshow our foreign diplomacy has become.
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Pichael Thompson
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11:10a, 4/23/25
Does that mean walk away from being the intermediary for peace negotiations or walking away from sending pos Zelensky money?

Either way we never should've been involved in any of this.... the only reason we were involved was for politicians to steal money from the American middle class
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B-1 83
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In reply to agdoc2001 • 11:10a, 4/23/25
AG
agdoc2001 said:
I couldn't disagree with JDV here any more strongly. It's actually beyond time for the US to walk away from this process.

And turn Ukraine loose with the weapons they need to make Russia quit.
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pfo
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11:15a, 4/23/25
AG
Walk away. Putin and Zelenskyy don't want peace. They are both getting richer every day the war rages on. Neither gives a damn about their countrymen getting killed.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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11:16a, 4/23/25
AG
I've seen nothing from Trump to indicate he's going to arm Ukraine enough to finish the war that started under Biden. I'm not sure where that idea comes from to keep being regurgitated.
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 11:16a, 4/23/25
MouthBQ98 said:
Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat? What do they stand to lose by the US declining further involvement?

It's just a very very strange threat for a supposed mediator to make if you are trying to encourage an end and incentivize participation.

It does achieve making the USA look relatively impotent and inconsequential and that surely doesn't help us in our own negotiations.


i think to a degree the threat is that trump is in some ways holding europe at bay he wants this to end they do not appear ready for it to end. it appears trumps tactic is if putin really does want peace this may be the last chance for a while. i think trump believes putin would like this to come to an end.
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Ag97
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11:21a, 4/23/25
AG
I thought that Trump said last year during election season that he would try to broker a peace during his first days in office. If the Ukrainians didn't want to negotiate and play ball, we stop funding their defense. On the other hand, if the Russians didn't want to negotiate and play ball, we up our support enough that it would bleed the Russians dry.

I know I'm getting old but I thought I remember him stating as such during his campaign.

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torrid
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11:32a, 4/23/25
AG
Both Putin and Zelensky are afraid to meet him face-to-face.
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MouthBQ98
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11:38a, 4/23/25
AG
Putin doesn't care about the personal wealth. He wants to be a historic figure for Russia and taking territory will do that. He doesn't mind being notorious or infamous for the rest of the world if Russian history makes him a Russian hero figure. It is that simple.

I think Zelensky has become similar on a smaller scale but as the leader of the defense of Ukraine. He wants the attention from playing that role.

Both of them have and will have plenty of access to wealth. That is not their respective concerns. The money argument is just not correct here, not for the leaders at least.

Wealth isn't going to move either one of them. An outcome to the war that either can parley into a historic reputational success is what matters to each of them.

Trump did in fact state he would lean hard on whoever would not negotiate in good faith. He leaned on Ukraine and they relented. He has played relatively nice with Russia so far and they have not negotiated in good faith. If Trump is true to his word, he will increase sanctions and supply Ukraine adequately to inflict battlefield defeat on Russia, as he said he would to bring about the end to the war by negotiations. I'm curious to see at what point that will be done.

Can Trump afford to swallow a historic failure after all of his braggadocio?

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rgag12
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11:43a, 4/23/25
AG
If I'm Russia, I don't know if I agree to a peace deal. A couple more years and Ukraine will crumble and he can get the whole thing.
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Pepe SiIvia
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11:45a, 4/23/25
AG
Putin doesn't care for personal wealth - he only has the largest private estate in the world with its own DNF airspace.
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GAC06
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In reply to rgag12 • 11:46a, 4/23/25
AG
rgag12 said:
If I'm Russia, I don't know if I agree to a peace deal. A couple more years and Ukraine will crumble and he can get the whole thing.


Russia is showing more signs of that than Ukraine. They're increasingly dependent on freaking North Korea
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BullHaulAg
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11:48a, 4/23/25
We are deeper into this than we should be but maybe worth it if we get mineral rights in Ukraine.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to Pepe SiIvia • 11:51a, 4/23/25
AG
Yes, he effectively owns the whole damn nation. What MORE does he want at this point? He wants the ego trip of being Putin the Great.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to torrid • 11:55a, 4/23/25
AG
torrid said:
Both Putin and Zelensky are afraid to meet him face-to-face.


This is blatantly false. Zelensky already did meet Trump face to face. Multiple times, in fact.
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Pepe SiIvia
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 11:56a, 4/23/25
AG
MouthBQ98 said:
Yes, he effectively owns the whole damn nation. What MORE does he want at this point? He wants the ego trip of being Putin the Great.
He will gladly take anything he can. Georgia, Chechnya, and now Ukraine are all going the same way. Ukraine just got lucky that the rest of the world actually wanted to help this time.


Putin is a rat who will keep taking until he is six feet under, and this amateur administration is fine with helping him.
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rononeill
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12:00p, 4/23/25
Can help but think (hope) we're offering something strategically beneficial to both of them at low cost to us that is incentive enough for them both to accept - and there's measurable upside for the US. I could be wrong, but I'm of the mind its nuts for anyone to think the full breadth of the negotiated terms are public.
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jamey
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In reply to torrid • 12:01p, 4/23/25
AG
torrid said:
Both Putin and Zelensky are afraid to meet him face-to-face.


Zelensky is so scared it's become a casual event. He probably wears crocs and a Tshirt next time
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AtticusMatlock
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12:06p, 4/23/25
Putin sincere? lol.

I'm still baffled by the Trump/Vance bending over backwards for Russia. If the end goal is to pull Russia into agreements with the US on China and the ME it isn't going to go well. Russia already signed multiple agreements with Ukraine, violated them all, and even violated their Easter ceasefire four days ago. No agreement, no peace deal with Ukraine, will EVER be followed by Russia.

Their strategic objectives have not yet been met. They need to control the land across the Black Sea and into Romania. They need the Baltics. They view this as for their own survival as a people. They aren't going to stop trying to obtain control over those lands whether by proxy or by force.
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FCBlitz
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12:07p, 4/23/25
Just understand everyday spent in support of peace…costs the US large amounts of money…..millions per day just to keep the status quo.

If the objective is to slow spending….spending on war is a good target to focus on.

Russia has the most dominant position and doesn't have to stop their limited aggression.
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Dave Robicheaux
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In reply to agdoc2001 • 12:08p, 4/23/25
AG
agdoc2001 said:
I couldn't disagree with JDV here any more strongly. It's actually beyond time for the US to walk away from this process.



Pretty sure that's what he's saying
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FCBlitz
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In reply to FCBlitz • 12:09p, 4/23/25
DP. My apologies.
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Dave Robicheaux
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In reply to rgag12 • 12:10p, 4/23/25
AG
rgag12 said:
If I'm Russia, I don't know if I agree to a peace deal. A couple more years and Ukraine will crumble and he can get the whole thing.



Russia has said since the beginning it doesnt want to control all of Ukraine.
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torrid
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:10p, 4/23/25
AG
Waffledynamics said:
torrid said:
Both Putin and Zelensky are afraid to meet him face-to-face.


This is blatantly false. Zelensky already did meet Trump face to face. Multiple times, in fact.
Whoosh.
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javajaws
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 12:11p, 4/23/25
AG
MouthBQ98 said:
Putin doesn't care about the personal wealth. He wants to be a historic figure for Russia and taking territory will do that. He doesn't mind being notorious or infamous for the rest of the world if Russian history makes him a Russian hero figure. It is that simple.

I think Zelensky has become similar on a smaller scale but as the leader of the defense of Ukraine. He wants the attention from playing that role.

Both of them have and will have plenty of access to wealth. That is not their respective concerns. The money argument is just not correct here, not for the leaders at least.

Wealth isn't going to move either one of them. An outcome to the war that either can parley into a historic reputational success is what matters to each of them.

Trump did in fact state he would lean hard on whoever would not negotiate in good faith. He leaned on Ukraine and they relented. He has played relatively nice with Russia so far and they have not negotiated in good faith. If Trump is true to his word, he will increase sanctions and supply Ukraine adequately to inflict battlefield defeat on Russia, as he said he would to bring about the end to the war by negotiations. I'm curious to see at what point that will be done.

Can Trump afford to swallow a historic failure after all of his braggadocio?

I think Trump eventually is going to have to play hardball with someone. He's made a bunch of promises but is almost universally failing so far (on his foreign policy objectives). People think they can wait him out and so far that is turning out to be true. So I think very soon he's going to have to make a choice and come down hard on someone - Russia, China, somebody or else risk getting ignored across the board.
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GAC06
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In reply to FCBlitz • 12:13p, 4/23/25
AG
FCBlitz said:
Just understand everyday spent in support of peace…costs the US large amounts of money…..millions per day just to keep the status quo.

If the objective is to slow spending….spending on war is a good target to focus on.

Russia has the most dominant position and doesn't have to stop their limited aggression.


Hegseth was just bragging about a one trillion dollar DoD budget. The objective clearly isn't to slow spending, and Ukraine is chump change compared to that
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Logos Stick
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In reply to Eliminatus • 12:15p, 4/23/25
Eliminatus said:
lol at Putin being sincere.

He is just following the playbook our enemies have on us and was written 50+ years ago. You don't need to beat us. You just need to outlast us. Which is exceedingly easy these days. If (and when) the US walks away, Putin will have won the greatest victory yet in this war. Just by toying with Trump et al. and getting him all ruffled and out of sorts.

Yet here we are. The greatest nation to ever exist on the planet! The greatest economy to ever to grace the planet. The greatest military ever. The most technologically and medically advanced. Yet, our playbook sucks and we were "outlasted" as you claim.

What did we lose by walking away from Vietnam exactly?

What other conflicts should have we have remained committed to and how much better would we be right now?!

What will we lose if Ukraine falls?

Based on all these other losses you claim we endured, I say nadda!
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Who?mikejones!
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12:18p, 4/23/25
There is no way for ukriane to win. It simply isn't feasible any longer.


The usa and Europe's threats ultimately ring hollow because they aren't actually willing to do what's necessary to "beat" Russia.
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