Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

70,147 Views | 1025 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by nortex97
nortex97
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Quote:

What makes no sense about this "assassination" attempt is how the hell would Ukraine have the intelligence to know where Putin is or which aircraft he's using? Considering we are their primary intelligence apparatus, that leaves two possibilities. Either for some reason we are giving that intel, which is completely idiotic, or this is made up BS propaganda.
Not really. First, we are sharing intelligence with them (again), and that might not exclude the location he was going to based on our radar/surveillance (E-3/P-8/Global hawk etc, they probably have a data 'pipeline' into our regional assets, and Putin's helo detachment probably 'squawks' a regular call sign as our own does, I think he still just uses the Mi-8's). Second, we are still also sharing intelligence with the 5-eyes services, so some of the warmongers in London/Berlin/Paris could have gotten the info and shared it. Third, Moscow could have actually told them where he was going, as there had been an agreement not to target Zelensky or heads of state (including visitors to Kiev), and Kursk isn't technically a war zone/contested area at this point.

While Kiev loves to turn the air raid sirens on for visiting dignitaries/celebrities, those aren't actually when Kiev is struck. This also could be an indicia that the military wants the Russians to kill/martyr Zelensky in kind though, as he has become a liability.

Over at SONAR a deconstruction of some bimbos piece at WaPo. Made me laugh is all, not worth excerpting imho.

Sigh…both sides claiming Trump is getting played.


50K is not likely enough to take Kharkiv, this would appear to be the 'create a buffer zone' force, imho.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

Quote:

Russia is going until Ukraine calls uncle.


It's good you finally agree that Russia is the aggressor and they alone can stop this war that no one wants but them.


I addressed this in the post you quoted. Be serious.

"Russia could end this today and go home" has always been an unserious proposition. Its not going to happen.


Just as unserious as expecting Ukrainians to surrender without a fight. Or Russia will their way to victory, something they haven't done in an offensive war in over 100 years.


"Without a fight"? Ukraine has been fighting for 3 years. The fight has happened (is happening). Ukraine has lost a fifth of its territory and counting.

How exactly do you think the Russians ended up in Berlin?


More obfuscation. It's only a fifth if you include Crimea and parts of the east that were lost prior to the outset of the current war. In 3 years Ukraine has barely lost anything at all.

And the Russians ended up in Berlin after turning the tide in a defensive war. A purely offensive war is another matter. The myth of the Russian endless will is just that, a myth.


You're revising WW2 history while accusing me of obfuscation. In the last 3 years Ukraine lost, among others, their single biggest bargaining chip: Kursk. "Barely anything at all" is just salesmanship.
GAC06
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Three years ago they didn't have Kursk. The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.
MaxPower
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Does it really matter if the last 3 years has been a stalemate? Ukraine needed massive support in intelligence and equipment to achieve that stalemate. That doesn't mean they will get the same support going forward.

Regardless, I totally agree we should be pulling out. I fully support the Euros continuing to support Ukraine but this is their problem. I'm not going to be absurd and try to blame Ukraine for this like some on this thread. It's been 3 years so the Euros have had plenty of time to ramp up if they truly had the will to do so.
Teslag
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GAC06 said:

Three years ago they didn't have Kursk. The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.
PlaneCrashGuy
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GAC06 said:

Three years ago they didn't have Kursk. The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.


In 3 years Ukraine lost its biggest bargaining chip and hundreds of thousands of men. Your attempt to propagandize reality is both pointless & pathetic.
Counterpoint
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MaxPower said:

nortex97 said:

More folks who are paying attention are…noticing.

What makes no sense about this "assassination" attempt is how the hell would Ukraine have the intelligence to know where Putin is or which aircraft he's using? Considering we are their primary intelligence apparatus, that leaves two possibilities. Either for some reason we are giving that intel, which is completely idiotic, or this is made up BS propaganda.


If you can't trust someone called Cat Turd, who CAN you trust, really?
nortex97
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GAC06 said:

Three years ago they didn't have Kursk. The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.
In a war of attrition grid squares don't matter too much, though, as Weimar Germany eventually figured out. This is a sports equivalent of a prevent defense or a soccer team changing to have fewer strikers for a stronger back line late in the game when up 5 goals. The Russians proverbially don't really need to 'score more goals.'

Drone strikes compared. Sad.
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Three years ago they didn't have Kursk. The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.


In 3 years Ukraine lost its biggest bargaining chip and hundreds of thousands of men. Your attempt to propagandize reality is both pointless & pathetic.


Ukraine's biggest bargaining chip is refusing to surrender. At Russia's current pace our grandkids will still be arguing about whether Russia may finally make it to Kiev.
GAC06
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Stating an obvious fact seemed to get you riled up. What's that say about who's pushing propaganda.
GAC06
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nortex97 said:

GAC06 said:

Three years ago they didn't have Kursk. The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.
In a war of attrition grid squares don't matter too much, though, as Weimar Germany eventually figured out. This is a sports equivalent of a prevent defense or a soccer team changing to have fewer strikers for a stronger back line late in the game when up 5 goals. The Russians proverbially don't really need to 'score more goals.'

Drone strikes compared. Sad.



Which war did Weimar Germany fight?
samurai_science
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Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Three years ago they didn't have Kursk. The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.


In 3 years Ukraine lost its biggest bargaining chip and hundreds of thousands of men. Your attempt to propagandize reality is both pointless & pathetic.


Ukraine's biggest bargaining chip is refusing to surrender. At Russia's current pace our grandkids will still be arguing about whether Russia may finally make it to Kiev.
Ukraine wont have any grandkids
Teslag
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samurai_science said:

Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Three years ago they didn't have Kursk. The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.


In 3 years Ukraine lost its biggest bargaining chip and hundreds of thousands of men. Your attempt to propagandize reality is both pointless & pathetic.


Ukraine's biggest bargaining chip is refusing to surrender. At Russia's current pace our grandkids will still be arguing about whether Russia may finally make it to Kiev.
Ukraine wont have any grandkids


What does this even mean?
nortex97
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Good catch, lol. Although, I would hazard an opinion the "Deutsches Reich" bears some significant similarities with the Kiev regime today. It's also somewhat ironic in this discussion that it was Bismarck himself who created the first welfare state (with a goal of undermining his socialist enemies). Again, history at least rhymes, if it doesn't repeat.

And the Germans are still toying with power, today:


Putin is also meeting with the Turkish foreign minister in Moscow this afternoon.
rgvag11
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How much are the Russkies paying for the dissemination of their propaganda? Asking for a friend.
PlaneCrashGuy
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GAC06 said:

Stating an obvious fact seemed to get you riled up. What's that say about who's pushing propaganda.


Ukraine gained a huge bargaining chip and lost it again in under 3 years time. Therefore, Ukraine has lost something major in the last 3 years. Is there a particular reason you re committed to pretending otherwise?
GAC06
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One more time in case you can't scroll up for some reason:

The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.

Ukraine also took some of Kursk and then lost it in that time. It does not change the previous fact.
J. Walter Weatherman
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Stating an obvious fact seemed to get you riled up. What's that say about who's pushing propaganda.


Ukraine gained a huge bargaining chip and lost it again in under 3 years time. Therefore, Ukraine has lost something major in the last 3 years. Is there a particular reason you re committed to pretending otherwise?


By this logic, Russia has also lost something major in the last three years given how much Ukraine has taken back.
PlaneCrashGuy
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GAC06 said:

One more time in case you can't scroll up for some reason:

The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.

Ukraine also took some of Kursk and then lost it in that time. It does not change the previous fact.


In the last 3 years Ukraine has lost hundreds of thousands of men, in addition to is biggest bargaining chip to end the war on favorable terms, which is very much something. These two things combine to land us nowhere close to "barely anything at all"
PlaneCrashGuy
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Stating an obvious fact seemed to get you riled up. What's that say about who's pushing propaganda.


Ukraine gained a huge bargaining chip and lost it again in under 3 years time. Therefore, Ukraine has lost something major in the last 3 years. Is there a particular reason you re committed to pretending otherwise?


By this logic, Russia has also lost something major in the last three years given how much Ukraine has taken back.


Of course it does. Russia has also lost hundreds of thousands of men and a lot of equipment. Did anyone claim otherwise?
GAC06
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Quote:

These two things combine to land us nowhere close to "barely anything at all"


Why are you replying to me? Did I say that?
J. Walter Weatherman
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Stating an obvious fact seemed to get you riled up. What's that say about who's pushing propaganda.


Ukraine gained a huge bargaining chip and lost it again in under 3 years time. Therefore, Ukraine has lost something major in the last 3 years. Is there a particular reason you re committed to pretending otherwise?


By this logic, Russia has also lost something major in the last three years given how much Ukraine has taken back.


Of course it does. Russia has also lost hundreds of thousands of men and a lot of equipment. Did anyone claim otherwise?


Sounds pretty stalemate-y to me.
aezmvp
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Stating an obvious fact seemed to get you riled up. What's that say about who's pushing propaganda.


Ukraine gained a huge bargaining chip and lost it again in under 3 years time. Therefore, Ukraine has lost something major in the last 3 years. Is there a particular reason you re committed to pretending otherwise?


By this logic, Russia has also lost something major in the last three years given how much Ukraine has taken back.


Of course it does. Russia has also lost hundreds of thousands of men and a lot of equipment. Did anyone claim otherwise?


Sounds pretty stalemate-y to me.
The situation on the ground seems to be an effective stalemate with a slight Russian advantage. That could change based on their economy, how much the West continues to prop up Ukraine, and a host of other factors but it seems to be the case that the Russians can't mass the forces needed to create a strategic breakthrough. And the Ukrainians lack the manpower to be able to push the Russians back. No amount of armor or planes is available or able to change the situation on the ground and the advent of drone warfare has very much put the tactical advantage on the defender. Both sides could still gain ground though that seems to primarily be the Russians at this point.

Short of a major strike changing the equation, like the seeming Putin strike, nothing much has changed and I'm fairly certain that a strike at Putin personally, while justified morally and strategically, was a long shot that has now back fired. They couldn't flood the zone enough to take out Putin and now he has even less incentive to negotiate without hardline positions and the Ukrainians will likely not get a better chance without being able to hit him inside Moscow. Good luck with that. They have gotten some folks inside Russia, but it will be a tough thing to do.

Putin probably estimates he has the upper hand on the ground. Which is objectively correct. And I suspect there are a number of hardline/corrupt people inside the Ukraine that want this to go on for nationalistic reasons or personal benefit. It's very unfortunate.
Pumpkinhead
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Russia is demanding:

1) Keep all occupied territory plus
2) Some territory they haven't even grabbed yet plus
3) Ukraine has to be disarmed (can't have a military more than a few thousand) plus
4) can't be in NATO
5) No military support from the West (in conjunction with #3)

So basically, Russia wants Ukraine to be reduced to a harmless sitting duck easily raided down the line at Russia's leisure. They want a 'peace' deal as though they have conquered the entire country.

I don't think I would refer to Ukrainians who would rather fight than agree to a peace deal under those terms as 'hardliners' in a negative sense. They are basically fighting for Ukraine to remain a sovereign country. You know…Give me Liberty or Give Me Death.

I really think the only way out of this is Trump has to stop letting Putin play these games afforded by Trump's thus far soft handling of him. Have to maximize the economic pain on Russia…make them see they all they are doing is participating in an unsustainable arms race and an 'endless war'… until they are willing to come to a reasonable agreement.
PlaneCrashGuy
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

Stating an obvious fact seemed to get you riled up. What's that say about who's pushing propaganda.


Ukraine gained a huge bargaining chip and lost it again in under 3 years time. Therefore, Ukraine has lost something major in the last 3 years. Is there a particular reason you re committed to pretending otherwise?


By this logic, Russia has also lost something major in the last three years given how much Ukraine has taken back.


Of course it does. Russia has also lost hundreds of thousands of men and a lot of equipment. Did anyone claim otherwise?


Sounds pretty stalemate-y to me.


Are you going to argue that "in the last 3 years Russia has barely lost anything at all"?

Maybe you missed it, but thats the comment chain you jumped in to. GAC missed it to, no hard feelings.
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

GAC06 said:

One more time in case you can't scroll up for some reason:

The point is that very little has changed since Ukraine pushed Russia back from their furthest initial invasion.

Ukraine also took some of Kursk and then lost it in that time. It does not change the previous fact.


In the last 3 years Ukraine has lost hundreds of thousands of men, in addition to is biggest bargaining chip to end the war on favorable terms, which is very much something. These two things combine to land us nowhere close to "barely anything at all"


In the last 3 years Ukraine pushed Russia out of 60% of the land they took in the initial February 2022 invasion, including liberating both Kharkiv and Kherson and over 1.5 million Ukrainians. Kursk wasn't a bargaining chip. Ukraine still existing and holding lands inside Russias claimed "territory" is and Ukraine is under no threat to lose those cities now at all.

In the last 3 years Russia has lost far more of Ukraine than they've gained. And you can see that for yourself in the map below.

.
J. Walter Weatherman
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I'm not even sure you know what you're trolling about at this point. But he said "very little has changed," since Ukraine pushed back Russia's initial invasion. Which, in terms of the frontlines, is true.
PlaneCrashGuy
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I distinctly remember you referring to Kursk as a bargaining chip in another thread, but if you're walking that back, thats fine. If Kursk wasn't supposed to give Ukraine some type of leverage, they wouldn't have got so many of their men killed trying to take and hold it. But if you don't want to recognize Ukraine lost Kursk, thats fine.
PlaneCrashGuy
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

I'm not even sure you know what you're trolling about at this point. But he said "very little has changed," since Ukraine pushed back Russia's initial invasion. Which, in terms of the frontlines, is true.


I figured you were mixed up in the commenr chain. No problem, here's the post I was responding to when GAC jumped in.

"In 3 years Ukraine has barely lost anything at all."

I don't think that is an accurate assessment is all I pointed out.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3539552/replies/70301097
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

I distinctly remember you referring to Kursk as a bargaining chip in another thread, but if you're walking that back, thats fine. If Kursk wasn't supposed to give Ukraine some type of leverage, they wouldn't have got so many of their men killed trying to take and hold it. But if you don't want to recognize Ukraine lost Kursk, thats fine.


In the past 3 years Ukraine lost Kursk. Russia lost more.
J. Walter Weatherman
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In terms of land, which is what he's referencing, they've barely lost any of the territory they gained back after Russia's initial invasion. And they gained and lost Kursk, which they were never going to keep in the first place. So no, I don't really agree with you there.
PlaneCrashGuy
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

In terms of land, which is what he's referencing, they've barely lost any of the territory they gained back after Russia's initial invasion. And they gained and lost Kursk, which they were never going to keep in the first place. So no, I don't really agree with you there.


If Ukraine was always going to lose Kursk, what do you think was their purpose for taking it?

Overall to me, it seems like you're cherry picking to pretend Ukraine didn't lose territory, manpower, and leverage in future negotiations at Kursk.
nortex97
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Zelensky, whose Team Kiev just launched 700 drone strikes last week into Russia and tried to assassinate Putin, while returning pensioners abducted from Kiev in a "POW exchange," laments Russian strikes on his regime as the fault of Trump's silence, about which he is so well known.
Quote:

Russia has continued the operation to secure a "buffer zone" between the held regions in the Eastern part of Ukraine and the area west of the Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions. The NATO alliance continues pouring weapons in to support Ukraine defenses, but the Russians are methodically grinding down the Ukrainian military.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is now saying President Trump's silence is emboldening the Russian assaults. "Each such terrorist attack by Russia is a sufficient reason for new sanctions against Russia. Russia is dragging out this war and continues to kill every day," Zelensky said in a post on Telegram Sunday morning. "The world may go on vacation, but the war continues, despite weekends and weekdays. This cannot be ignored. America's silence, and the silence of others in the world, only encourages Putin," he continued.

This is an interesting dynamic to continue watching unfold. In the background as Tulsi Gabbard, Marco Rubio and perhaps even John Ratcliffe begin confronting rogue elements within the CIA and pulling them away from covert operation in Ukraine, per the strategic withdrawal of influence announced by President Trump, the position of Zelenskyy could weaken quickly.
Pretty damn funny, imho. Someone should let him know the Russian strikes don't matter as they haven't taken many grid squares. NYT claims Trump is going to pull out of peace talks:
Quote:

Trump appeared to express the sentiment following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week as he spoke with several European leaders, the NYT reported.

During the conversation, Trump shared his impression that "Putin thought he was winning the war and would press his advantage," according to officials briefed on the matter. They also reportedly indicated that Trump "made it clear he had no intention on putting pressure, much less harsh economic sanctions, on Russia."

"He said, essentially, 'I'm out,'" an NYT source claimed. At the same time, the paper would not say whether Trump, who has been skeptical of US aid to Ukraine and has yet to approve new assistance packages, might be willing to continue military support for Kiev.

Trump, who has described the Ukraine conflict as "Europe's war," was shocked by Moscow's unwillingness to change its key terms of resolving the crisis, according to the NYT. Russia has insisted that any sustainable peace must include guarantees of Ukraine's neutrality, its demilitarization, denazification, and recognition of the new territorial reality on the ground.
EU looking to end the TPD status of the 4 million+ Ukrainians living in Europe who fled Kiev. Unironically, many more actually went to Russia than anywhere else. Some odd honesty from WaPo:

Sitrep: UFA out of ADA missiles, desperation, Russian drone advantages/AI, and…
Quote:

Things continue going badly for Ukraine on the front, with Russian territorial captures again spiking today at what one source had as nearly ~50km2 taken.

Financial Times' latest describes Ukrainian soldiers as weary and demoralized, with no hope on the horizon:…


More at the link, including the irrelevant hand over from Germany of up to 150 Taurus missiles, which will have zero strategic impact, and pending fall of Konstantinovka. Forever war.
nortex97
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An interesting piece, written from a pro-war euro perspective, though written by a Chinese guy for a Turkish paper I think.
Quote:

After the Istanbul talks, Putin inspected the fully recaptured Kursk region and will soon visit Donbas, controlled by Russian forces. This over three-year war has now entered a new stalemate phase marked by a temporary Russian victory. With overwhelming military strength and vast occupied territory, Russia refuses Ukraine's call for a ceasefire before negotiations and instead favors negotiating while fighting. This strategy prevents Ukraine from regrouping and aims to drive Ukrainian forces out of the remaining contested areas, securing full control of the four regions. The "border buffer zone" Putin spoke of essentially represents a redefined Russia-Ukraine boundary, securing complete victory in the war.

Russia holds battlefield initiative and strategic upper hand, Ukraine refuses to yield, and European countries are unwilling to abandon Ukraine. This complex situation has gradually drained the Trump administration's confidence, patience, and courage, increasingly signaling a hands-off approach.
Quote:

The Trump administration is gradually abandoning leadership of the Western world and relinquishing its dominant position in NATO. Its focus on making America strong alone means it will never bleed to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity or help Europe fulfill its strategic dream of containing Russia. Although the Russia-Ukraine war has entered a new phase of direct negotiations, there is no chance for a win-win outcome. Ukraine and Europe's best hope at present is to maintain the status quo and wait for the Republican administration to step down, hoping that a Democratic administration will return to the previous hardline policies. Even so, Ukraine and Europe are unlikely to win the warunless a dramatic internal change occurs in Russia, or the country disintegrates. A united, nationalist Russia remains undefeated, especially not on its own doorstep.

History has long witnessed the power struggles between Russia and Europe. It shows that Russia has never willingly returned land it has occupied or annexed unless it was truly defeatedespecially not places like Crimea or the four eastern and southern Ukrainian provinces, which are historically connected and home to many generations of ethnic Russians.

Three years ago, shortly after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, the author predicted that this century's war would end with a tragic Russian victory and a disastrous Ukrainian defeat. The forecast was that this continental war involving multiple actors would first become "Afghanistan-ized," and eventually "Palestinian-ized." Unfortunately, reality is step by step confirming this prediction.

The tragedy of Nato Expansion.
Quote:

Worse still, NATO expansion became untethered from strategic necessity. It took on a life of its own an institutional momentum powered by bureaucracy, domestic politics, and ideological conviction. At every step whether in Poland, the Baltics, Georgia, or Ukraine Western policymakers failed to ask the most basic question of all: how will this look from Moscow? And can we live with the reaction?

We believed, or convinced ourselves, that history had ended. That power politics had been transcended. That Russia would simply accept its diminished role in a world reshaped by liberal rules, norms and institutions. But history didn't end. It reasserted itself brutally, predictably, and with tragic consequences.

Let's be clear: Putin's war is a war of choice. It's rooted in a revanchist vision of empire and an authoritarian contempt for Ukraine's independence. But acknowledging that doesn't absolve the West of its role in laying the foundations for conflict. To do so would be to confuse moral judgment with strategic clarity. It would be, in essence, to choose self-congratulation over self-awareness.
Quote:

The Tragedy of NATO Expansion

The tragedy of NATO expansion is not that it happened. It's how it happened mechanically, arrogantly, and with little regard for the balance-of-power dynamics that have shaped geopolitics since Thucydides.

We had a fleeting chance to build something better. We didn't. And now we live in the world that that decision helped shape.

The bear is growling. And we're pretending we don't know why.
Correct on all points. Long pieces, more at the links.
Stonegateag85
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https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2060224/russia-ukraine-buffer-zone-trump-putin

I wonder what the move is now for DJT?
 
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