Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

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In reply to nortex97 • 4:51p, 6/1/25
AG
nortex97 said:
As well as the front line developments, this was one of the things I saw as very good news this weekend, personally.
Shazam! Nortex, Simplicius, Lord Bebo, Armchair Warlord, Russians with Attitude, and Putin all agree? It's a cosmic event like when planets form a straight line in the night sky. LOL
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Sea Speed
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4:55p, 6/1/25
AG
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Rossticus
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In reply to Sea Speed • 5:06p, 6/1/25
Sea Speed said:




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Sea Speed
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:18p, 6/1/25
AG
Why on earth would you ruin it?
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Rossticus
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In reply to Sea Speed • 5:37p, 6/1/25


There. Happy?
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:26p, 6/1/25
This is just one airfield. It isn't just 4 or 5 planes. Let's say 5 at each base got hit on the low end. That's a big deal for Russia.

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nortex97
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7:11p, 6/1/25
AG
I'm sitting here on singer island just laughing at this today, sorry I haven't replied more. Will check in in the am.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:12p, 6/1/25
Russians paying well these days.
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samurai_science
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9:00p, 6/1/25
The war is still going? What a waste tax payer money
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Teslag
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In reply to samurai_science • 9:01p, 6/1/25
AG
samurai_science said:
The war is still going? What a waste tax payer money


This recent attack was supposedly carried out solely by Ukraine with their own cheap converted drones. This is a good thing if they can do this without our aid.
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bmks270
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9:05p, 6/1/25
AG
Time to build some hangers.

Drones have made any uncovered target anywhere, for all nations, a sitting duck. Ships and naval targets included.
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Teslag
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:08p, 6/1/25
AG
For many of these a mesh or cage like structure would be as good as a hangar.
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nortex97
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In reply to samurai_science • 5:28a, 6/2/25
AG
Yes, but fortunately Trump hasn't requested any fresh $$$ for it. Just using the rest of the Biden familia's appropriations. The Ukrainians at least, again, chose a real military target, and did some damage. However, they did use Russian civilian truck drivers unwittingly, and one was apparently killed when he 'got suspicious' and inspected the cargo so it 'self destructed.' So, at least some aspect of terrorism, unsurprisingly. Irkutsk and Visokiy were not prepared to repel the attacks, being so far from the theater, so again, good choices but really, those planes also weren't involved in the war as well.
Quote:
For Ukraine's purposes, the success is enough: even destroying one or two of Russia's strategic Tu-95 bombers is ample accomplishment because Russia no longer manufactures these airframes, and only has somewhere between 47-55 activethough it remains an open question whether 18 months of intense planning and sacrificed intel resources was 'worth it' for this result.

Thus far, Russian sources have reported that potentially anywhere between one to five Tu-95s were actually destroyed or disabled permanently, though nothing is conclusive yet, and the final tally could prove much smaller or greater than surmised. RussiansWithAttitude notes:
Quote:
Final tally of confirmed hits so far seems to be 5 Tu-95s, 2 Tu-22s, one An-12. According to my info, two of the 95s can most likely be repaired relatively soon, as the damage is not super extensive. At least one is dead for good. The 22s, no idea. Sure hurts but not devastating
From what I've seen of the footage, only one looked to be potentially totally destroyed, with others merely suffering fires exaggerated by the heavy smoke of burning aviation fuel. Other videos show transport craft burning, which are mistaken for Tu-95s. For instance, here is said to be the Antonov AN-12BK burning:
The more significant terrorism was the attack on trains this weekend. That is over now, and the Russians are actually very fast at repairing rail lines.

A couple further points worth noting, Russia is rebuilding around 4 Tu-95's a year, but the planes are being replaced by Tu-160/Tu-22's in new-build production still, long term (around 7 airborne toward Ukraine as I type, fwiw). Further, the Geromans do a lot more of the damage/strikes today.

So again, some good propaganda wins, but ultimately just that this weekend. The war drones ahead.

Somewhat hilariously, the Russian delegation has whined that the Ukrainian 'peace proposal' (memo) is not in Russian.
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nortex97
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 5:36a, 6/2/25
AG
Who?mikejones! said:
Russians paying well these days.

Nice views from Feodossia Florida. I do hope to visit Crimea some day, once the war is over.

Zelensky prepping for the afternoon narrative.

At least this time they showed up in suits:
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Pumpkinhead
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5:51a, 6/2/25
AG
Was the audacious Doolittle Raid on Tokyo 'worth it' in terms of boosting United States morale and sending a message to Japan in April 1942? Yes, it was. This clever and surprising raid by Ukraine deep into Russia IMO is comparable to the Doolittle Raid in some ways and may produce some similar benefits.

Japan downplayed the incident and eventually charged and executed some of the captured Doolittle Raiders as terrorists which has some similarities too.
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nortex97
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 6:03a, 6/2/25
AG
"Audacious" is a fair term. The military value may have been similarly marginal, but the US has warned of a 'disproportionate' (I hate that term) response coming from Russia.

The cold civil-war between the goblin and Klitschko seems to be heating up:
Quote:
The dispute is as much personal as it is political, according to the newspaper.

Zelensky made personal attacks against Klitschko after the mayor criticized his approach to peace negotiations.

The Kiev mayor has accused Zelensky of overreach, playing into fears that his use of wartime powers has come at the expense of democracy, The Times said. Despite his presidential term expiring last May, the Ukrainian leader has repeatedly postponed elections, citing martial law. Klitschko said that Zelensky is also usurping power from other mayors in the country, but that his celebrity status grants him some protection.

While boxing champion has brushed off allegations against him as mudslinging, arrests in the Kiev administration are real manifestations of corruption in the capital, the Times wrote, citing analysts. Kiev's flourishing corruption would be "impossible without the city government," Zelensky-appointed city military administration head Timur Tkachenko told The Times.
The successor will have to be Klitschko or Zaluzhny, I would think.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:11a, 6/2/25
Still banging on about only 4 or 5 planes being damaged, huh?
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:32a, 6/2/25
AG
In the 4th year now of Russia's current invasion of Ukraine and some irreplaceable strategic bombers were lost yesterday at Siberian bases thousands of kilometers from the front lines (as you mentioned they can't just magically turn on some factory to reproduce those).

Russia propaganda will downplay the 'terrorist' attack as Japan did the Doolittle Raid but no doubt inside Moscow nobody is laughing and there is some major scrambling going on right now to reassess vulnerabilities. And no doubt Ukrainian morale all along the front lines got a boost yesterday.

It is also notable that Trump did not send out some all cap 'THAT WAS CRAZY' post on Truth Social berating Zelensky for doing it.
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Who?mikejones!
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7:06a, 6/2/25


What do you think comrade nortex97, you think russia could even get to number 2 and return the childre they kidnapped?
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nortex97
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7:22a, 6/2/25
AG
I take it back. It's still suits vs. camo cos-players.

On the demographic emergency/outlook as to ending the war.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:30a, 6/2/25
That's a super misleading tweet and quite a leap
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:37a, 6/2/25
AG
psssstttt...here is a third angle...wait for it...wait for it...okay...

What if the losses for BOTH Russia and Ukraine were catastrophic and eventually unsustainable?

Like...suppose this war really really sucks for BOTH sides. Is that a possibility? Could it be that both Russia AND Ukraine..or Ukraine AND Russia however you prefer...have lost a lot of people over the past 3+ years?

What if the truth is...however and whenever this thing ends...that both sides will have incurred enormous costs and a lot of Russian and Ukrainian families will be missing some relatives?
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nortex97
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6:21p, 6/2/25
AG
Zelensky cries about Trump needing to do more to his satisfaction again.

200 is quite a lot for Kiev:

They're going to have to move forces up to Kharkiv though, at some point;
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:08p, 6/2/25
Both of their demographic structures are terrible. It's one of the reasons Russia started the war. They can't defend their wide open territory without expanding toward more geographically defensible positions. They are paranoid of future invasion. This war was never about Nazis. They believe they need if not actual control but de facto control of Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and eventually parts of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

They pretty much confirmed this in the last 24 hours with talk of the Soviet Union still existing. That's from the Russian side.

Russia tried to buy off the Ukrainian president in 2014, Ukrainians rightfully called foul and kicked him out of office. Russia decided that they would not be able to turn Ukraine into the next Belarus so they planned the next best thing in their mind which was invasion.

Russia views taking this territory as a fight for their own future survival.
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CS78
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 7:16p, 6/2/25
Who?mikejones! said:


What do you think comrade nortex97, you think russia could even get to number 2 and return the childre they kidnapped?


That has to be the hardest thing to achieve in trying to find peace. Even if Russia wanted to give them back, its going to be really hard. Could they even locate them?

And how could Ukraine accept anything but their return?

Never mind the fact that they've been gone for three years and the developmental trauma involved.

Truly an unacceptable terroristic act by Russia. No better than Hamas.
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nortex97
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In reply to CS78 • 5:50a, 6/3/25
AG
The 'Russians abducted tens of thousands of children' is just another myth. They in reality could only come up with a claim of 399, despite the headlines. These are likely orphans from oblasts that have been incorporated into Russia/are now (nominally) independent. The destruction of the young adult population over Ukraine's intent to join Nato is entirely the result of the Kiev regime's decisions.

This isn't:


The Russians did apparently attack Sumy city center, which is pretty gross.

ETA More on the ludicrous and grotesque 'child kidnapping' theater the Ukrainians have played.
Quote:
"This list shows, unfortunately, that the Ukrainian authorities have staged a show," he said. "In reality, we are talking about dozens of children none of whom were abducted. Not a single one. These are children saved by our soldiers, at the risk of their own lives, pulled from combat zones and evacuated."

"We are looking for their parents," he added. "When parents are found, we return them."

According to Medinsky, Russia has returned 101 children to Ukraine in recent months, while Kiev has returned 22.

Moscow evacuates children from the conflict zone to save their lives and endeavours to return them to their families, Medinsky explained. Kiev nevertheless has persisted with accusations of kidnapping, which are not borne out by the actual numbers, he said.

The Russian authorities have also stressed that displaced children are not adopted in Russia, and that they are only put under guardianship or foster care to make sure they are taken care of before a return to their families can be facilitated.

"This shameful PR campaign must end," Medinsky said.

"Every child will eventually be reunited with their parents. All families will be brought back together on both sides. We are working on it. It is a matter of honor."
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nortex97
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4:53a, 6/4/25
AG
Another Ukrainian terrorist attack (on the Kerch bridge) has failed. Sitrep.
Quote:
Imagine the plan's sweep as Zelensky envisioned it: the entire Russian strategic bomber fleet was supposed to be taken out with the Kerch bridge toppling over nearly the next day. The information package surely prepared for such an event would have seen news outlets worldwide screaming that Russia has fallen, inciting thousands of 'disgruntled' Russians to storm the streets and oust Putin. How 'glorious' it all must have looked in the crenulated crevices of Zelensky's foggy brain.

But it was for naught: both attacks failed.
Quote:
A Russian source reports that the results of Ukraine's second attack on the Kerch bridge failed to cause any damage to the bridge itself, and only damaged 2 mesh fences and a decommissioned barge which served as a barrier. The Russian coast guard and Black Sea Fleet destroyed most of the USVs.
Even now, more images have streamed out showing the vast majority of Russian bases did not suffer any damage as claimed by Ukraine during the 'surprise drone attack'.
Peaceful terms clarified:
Quote:
The other news item of note was the second round of Istanbul talks. Though the talks transpired in exactly the way we all predicted, the one interesting development was the slight ongoing clarification of Russia's position which seems to be taking place with each new exchange:
Quote:
Full text of the Russian memorandum on ending the conflict in Ukraine:
  • International recognition of Crimea, LPR, DPR, Zaporizhia, Kherson regions as part of the Russian Federation.
  • Prohibition of Ukraine from joining any military alliances and coalitions.
  • Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from new Russian territories and establishment of a 30-day ceasefire.
  • Dissolution of nationalist groups in Ukraine.
  • Legislative ban on the glorification and propaganda of Nazism.
  • Giving the Russian language official status.
  • Lifting martial law in Ukraine and holding elections.
The conditions for a ceasefire remain the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from four regions, the cessation of arms supplies and mobilization.
Military Informant
Though we've known most of the items above for a long time, there were many uncertainties about some of the notions, which Russia has gradually spelled out more clearly. For instance, rather than the deliberately vague "deNazification" mandate, now they specify "dissolution of nationalist groups in Ukraine" as well as legislation banning the glorification of Nazism.

Similarly, when Putin had seemingly contradicted earlier "no ceasefires first" positions by vaguely claiming Russia would "immediately" halt all fighting if Ukraine were to simply take the step of withdrawing from annexed Russian regions, we now see how that ties into the overall Russian design: Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire only upon the total withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the designated territories.



Forever war, comrades.
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:16a, 6/4/25
AG
nortex97 said:


Forever war, comrades.
Forever more unverified BS.
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nortex97
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In reply to benchmark • 6:27a, 6/4/25
AG
What's the question?


He's obviously long enjoyed war/sex tourism, on our dime.
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Sq 17
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:51a, 6/4/25
Regarding your tweet about Orc missile capacity. Russia has more missiles than targets that are worth hitting in Ukraine

Those missiles are very expensive and likely Russia is reluctant to use them all because they might need them later as a deterrent against Chinese aggression or against one of their unruly satellite regimes.

If Russia could have ended the war with air superiority ( missiles ) the war would be over. Vietnam and Afghanistan are examples that air superiority alone doesn't win wars
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Sq 17 • 7:01a, 6/4/25
AG
This, on the Iskanders alone that is billions of dollars worth of missiles.
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nortex97
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In reply to Sq 17 • 7:02a, 6/4/25
AG
I don't disagree with any of that. I do expect Russia will 'take the gloves off' in targeting some government/military structures around Kiev shortly, though. They actually don't have too many Oreshnik's but might expend a few there.
Hegseth is going to skip the next 'ramstein group' meeting of war planning in Brussels.

Aside, Rybar in English is updating again. I can't remember when/why, but they were down for a year or so. Along with AMK mapping (Ukrainian) and Ayden, one of the better battlefield map updates when kept current.
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:19a, 6/4/25
AG
nortex97 said:
What's the question?
No question. It's a fact - you don't do your homework before posting. Lindsey Grahm wasn't reimbursed $411,634 for his resent Kiev trip. If you want to go down a rabbit hole go investigate the contract betweeen the State Dept and the Ukrainian company International - Business Center Tov.

No argument on Graham being a frequent flier ... but that's deflecting to another topic.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:23a, 6/4/25
Military targets would be welcome, im sure, as opposed to the civilian one they always hit
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MaxPower
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:34a, 6/4/25
I put zero credence in words from the mouth of an Italian soldier who volunteers to fight for Russia
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