LIVAggies098 said:

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If I'm Russia, I don't know if I agree to a peace deal. A couple more years and Ukraine will crumble and he can get the whole thing.

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He's not going to agree to a peace deal and likely never seriously considered it. And he has always wanted the whole thing either all at once with the SMO or phased out to take the rest of it with the next dem administration

And 1 to 2 million died in the Iran Iraq war, probably a better proxy vs Vietnam as two warring neighbors, particularly as Carter/we helped establish the ayatollah regime and then favored the Hussein one (before later flipping). Effective foreign policy on historical display.

Also odd is that the US somehow doesn't acknowledge Ukrainian losses.

Russia has started launching kamikaze drones from.

- Bryansk region
- Kursk region
- Oroyl region
- Rostov region
- Smolensk region

TU-95MS/TU-160s is likely to be used. I can't fully confirm it.

From what I know this will be a longer thread throughout the night.

— kim høvik (@kimhvik2) July 11, 2025

LIVAggies098 said:

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If I'm Russia, I don't know if I agree to a peace deal. A couple more years and Ukraine will crumble and he can get the whole thing.

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The lines have barely moved in 3 years and still barely move. There's literally no factual basis in your conclusion. Russia simply doesn't have the men or equipment to do this. And realistically never will.

Russia has already had Crimea for about 9-10 years. They've had control of parts and active in separatist movements in Donbas for that same amount of time. Since this "minor incursion" started in 2022, they've controlled much more of Donbas, but have made very little other "progress" for nearly 3 years. If Russia just wanted that swath of land where much of the population prefers it, they'd be done already.

What Putin says they want is the fall of what they call the Kiev regime. The corruption, the nato expansion, the labs right next door to them, etc. are what they don't want. To end this, Ukraine would have to make huge concessions - give them Donbas, make promises of no more Nato flirting, etc., but can they get lord z to step down? There needs to be some flexing on the Ukraine side so Russia at least has some concessions (besides not taking ALL of Ukraine) and it's not seen as a total victory for Russia.

It will still be an overall loss for what used to be the borders of Ukraine since the 90s, but I think the opportunity is there to make those concessions to Russia in exchange for promises to stop doing any business with China and Iran. Those are real threats that need to be snuffed out and suffocated. Make Russia sell gas to Europe and don't let them sell anything to China. Make Russia pay for reconstruction on certain projects throughout the region. But I think we need to stop poking the bear. A prosperous more western-friendly Russia helps the world unite against the real threat in China.

Nothing to see here, just more Russian servicemen being the subhuman creatures they are. Still waiting on Lord Bebo confirmation.

https://nypost.com/2025/07/10/world-news/ukrainian-toddler-murdered-in-evil-targeted-attack-by-russian-suicide-drone-in-kherson/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nypost&utm_source=twitter

Trump administration already essentially floated a negotiated peace deal possibility with Russia keeping Crimea and East Ukraine and no NATO membership for Ukraine, etc.

And Russia has rejected it. Putin has clearly stated they consider all of Ukraine as part of Russia. They are demanding a total surrender. Regime change and Ukraine disarmed and then no more than a satellite territory of Russia as in USSR days. And they have said their position is non-negotiable.

So basically the Russians are demanding terms that could never be accepted by Western Ukraine population or Europe. They have boxed both themselves and Ukraine and Europe and then by extension the US into a 'Forever War' situation.

They are probably doing this under the belief that they are slowly 'winning' a war of attrition and that Ukraine collapse is only a matter of time. And they are willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of Russian lives to achieve that goal. They may or may not be misguided in the belief of eventual Ukraine collapse but that is of course often why these conflicts go on years and years and years. Because one of the sides thinks it is 'winning'.



Also, talk about how the USA should appease Russia in this at the expense of Ukraine to 'have more friendly relations with Russia'. The problem is that this isn't just about what Ukraine wants. the western EU REALLY REALLY REALLY doesn't want an Ukraine collapse. And the EU is a significantly more important economic trade partner (not to mention military ally) with the USA than Russia. So if you are forced to pick which relationship is the more important to side with (EU's side or Russia's side)……the USA is going to side with the EU. You can't just appease Putin/Russia and tell UK, Germany, France etc. to pound sand about their concerns and have no negative consequences on the relationships with your own allies.

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[size=3]Also, talk about how the USA should appease Russia in this at the expense of Ukraine to 'have more friendly relations with Russia'. The problem is that this isn't just about what Ukraine wants. the western EU REALLY REALLY REALLY doesn't want an Ukraine collapse. And the EU is a significantly more important economic trade partner (not to mention military ally) with the USA than Russia.[/size]

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The EU is militarily impotent and is in the process of bending the knee to Trump on trade already. They won't decide overnight to take xyz actions against the US over ending this war. But just looking at the impact of this conflict/the past 10 years of Euro-globalist leadership is sort of breathtaking as to the 'old world:'

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[color=#000000][size=4][font=Archivo, sans-serif]Moscow has argued that EU restrictions are self-defeating, causing surging energy prices and weakening the bloc's economy.[/font][/size][/color]

[color=#000000][size=4][font=Archivo, sans-serif]Dimon, CEO of one of the world's largest banks, cautioned EU leaders at an event in Dublin hosted by the Irish Foreign Ministry on Thursday that Europe has lost its competitive edge compared to the US and is facing a growing crisis in economic competitiveness.[/font][/size][/color]

[color=#000000][size=4][font=Archivo, sans-serif]"You're losing," he said. "Europe has gone from 90% [of] US GDP to 65% over 10 or 15 years."[/font][/size][/color]

[color=#000000][size=4][font=Archivo, sans-serif]"We've got this huge strong market and our companies are big and successful, have huge kinds of scale that are global. You have that, but less and less."[/font][/size][/color]

[color=#000000][size=4][font=Archivo, sans-serif]The JP Morgan boss has repeatedly expressed concerns about the state of Europe's economy. [/font][/size][/color]

[color=#000000][size=4][font=Archivo, sans-serif]Earlier this year, Dimon told Financial Times that Europe needed to "do more" to remain competitive, noting that GDP per person had dropped from around 70% of America's to 50%, which he deemed "not sustainable."[/font][/size][/color]

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+ Lvov

— VolgaLad (@cym27s) July 11, 2025

Sitrep on Rubio's absurd claims as to Russian (but not Ukrainian) casualties this year:

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…
[color=#363737][size=4][font=Spectral, serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"]These publications claim to have such 'sensitive' attunements to the battlefield fluctuations as to give exact Russian figures, but when it comes to Ukraine, they are suddenly lacking data. [/font][/size][/color]
[color=#363737][size=4][font=Spectral, serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"]The fact is, there's a reason why MediaZona very abruptly changed up their methodology to include "projected" deaths rather than real counted ones, as done previouslybecause contrary to this coordinated propaganda campaign, Russian losses have actually been at the lowest in a long time. This is precisely the reason such an orchestrated campaign was necessary: Ukraine is badly losing, and the only remaining aspect of the war the propagandists could feasibly utilize to try and spin the narrative are the casualty figures, because they are typically the most 'subjective' and ambiguous in naturewhich makes them perfect fodder for devious manipulation.[/font][/size][/color]

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More at the link. The only real data we have, as I have tried to point out, is in the exchanges of bodies/KIA between the two sides, but even that is relatively limited in terms of the utility of the data (but not the veracity of it).

Forever war, comrades.

British journalist Peter Hitchens has been covering Russia for 47 years. He’s a critic of Vladimir Putin so nobody can say he’s "echoing Putin’s talking points.” Hitchens writes: “You’ve been fed a steady diet of propaganda rubbish about Ukraine and the invented Russian menace.”… pic.twitter.com/xxzA2nBzD1

— Alan Watson (@DietHeartNews) July 12, 2025

As you should know, "the Bucha massacre" - around 1 April 2022 - was a false flag, intended to "blow up" the first Istanbul negotiations in March 2022 (about week six of the war) - with a press tour (photo below) arranged by none other than now defunct USAID. pic.twitter.com/2PKJIwCw5q

— Alan Watson (@DietHeartNews) July 12, 2025

April 2025 oped (paywall).

But I was told by Rubio they are losing a hundred thousand men a month.

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service says that Russia’s force deployed against Ukraine has more than 700,000 personnel. https://t.co/30eWMjfBat https://t.co/HGItbfaic7 pic.twitter.com/jkJASB7jZQ

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 12, 2025

1800 drones in a week per Zelensky, launched by Russia.

Teslag said:

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LIVAggies098 said:

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If I'm Russia, I don't know if I agree to a peace deal. A couple more years and Ukraine will crumble and he can get the whole thing.

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The lines have barely moved in 3 years and still barely move. There's literally no factual basis in your conclusion. Russia simply doesn't have the men or equipment to do this. And realistically never will.

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The WSJ has a great article about this for those with paywall access. They show video of drones flying over trenches and taking out individual soldiers. It has gotten to be somewhat like WW1 warfare where no one dares to peek out of a hidden shelter. Soldiers aren't rotated and the only attempt to attack is small groups of a few soldiers on bikes and other simple vehicles. Tanks and other heavy pieces have been totally neutralized by drones which are cheap and plentiful.

Turns out Major Cane in Top Gun Maverick was right about drones.

Russo-US talks continue despite efforts to derail them. WSJ paywalled article about Russian drone strikes ramp/intensity (400-750/day right now, in general).

Will have to see what Trump actually does today, after much speculation/words/flipping on this stuff. The Germans said no on their longer-range Taurus missiles to Kiev, yet again.

U.S. President Donald J. Trump is expected to announce an “aggressive” new plan to arm Ukraine on Monday which is expected to involve the transfer of significant offensive weapons, including long-range missiles able to strike Moscow and other major targets throughout Russia,… pic.twitter.com/4m2BbyQZfh

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 14, 2025

Zelensky seems to be on good behavior (less coke?) right now re: Trump/the US, but it sounds like the actual negotiations are unlikely to lessen Putin's stated objectives;

📞🇺🇸 In a July 3 call, Putin told Trump he planned to escalate attacks and push toward full control of key Ukrainian regions within 60 days, - Axios pic.twitter.com/Zy9TRTbkrR

— The Ukrainian Review (@UkrReview) July 14, 2025

Yep full military aid just announced. Guess his ending the war in a day dream imploded

There goes the narrative that Trump and Putin are buddies. Add that to the miles long list of failed narratives TDS brings out in people

why would a puppet bomb his own master like that?

oh no said:

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why would a puppet bomb his own master like that?

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Oh I am sure John Brennan/Chris Steele/Chris Wray/lovebirds/Andy McCabe/Susan Rice could concoct a theory.

Note; most Dems still believe the Russian collusion lies were real/true!

Column 2 is up: ⁦@RasmussenPolls⁩ preview reveals majority of Dems still believe the Russia collusion hoax was real https://t.co/YsWtH7zgFP

— Miranda Devine (@mirandadevine) July 14, 2025

TDS is a sad disease.

that's just because Schiff says he has proof.

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[color=#0c0c0c][size=3][font=cnn_sans_display, helveticaneue, Helvetica, Arial, Utkal, sans-serif]A White House official clarified to CNN that when the president referred to "secondary tariffs," he meant 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries that buy Russian oil. The US conducts very little trade with Russia, making the secondary sanctions the piece with potentially the most bite.[/font][/size][/color]

[color=#0c0c0c][size=3][font=cnn_sans_display, helveticaneue, Helvetica, Arial, Utkal, sans-serif]"They're secondary sanctions. It's sanctions on countries that are buying the oil from Russia. So it's really not about sanctioning Russia," Matt Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, told CNN's Kaitlan Collins at the White House. "It's about tariffs on countries like India and China that are buying their oil. It really is going to dramatically impact the Russian economy."[/font][/size][/color]

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Should have done something like this already much earlier. I hope Trump doesn't 'TACO' on it. Keep pumping the weapons into Ukraine and maximum squeeze the Russian economy in every direction possible. I'd also hammer more on their 'Shadow Fleet' floating around out in international waters being used to try to circumvent existing sanctions.

Let Russia know this is going to be EXTREMELY costly every month in both blood and economic health if they keep doing this adventure. Give them no doubt this is a 'Forever War' that will be a huge anchor in cost or blood with no end in sight. No, the U.S. is not walking away. no the EU and NATO is not going to be abandoned by the U.S., this is just going to go on and on.

Stir up some pressure between Russia and its BRICS buddies to want this to be over.

Only then, IMO will there be a chance of sufficient pressure being put on Russia that they might eventually start negotiating towards an actual exit strategy instead of thinking they could actually ever take all of Ukraine if only they keep grinding away for another year or whatever.

Before he got fired and arrested didn't Manafort pass along internal polling data to Russian intelligence ?

Quick google search Konstantin Kiliminik was the guy getting Trump internal polling

Exactly. In fact, for the Ukraine-America partnership to work, Kyiv must become transparent and corruption-free.

Yermak and Zelensky are not dependable, believable partners for the United States.https://t.co/9gLw9pHefQ https://t.co/e6WDaROUI8

— Steve Cortes (@CortesSteve) July 11, 2025

He's right, you know. And that is…an impossibility (Kiev becoming corruption free). Yermak is very rarely scrutinized outside of Ukraine, much more at the link.
Longish thread from the thoughts of a Ukrainian infantryman;

7/ The main point is this: they hope that their "last and decisive" push will bring the desired effect. That by burying the infantry of another dozen motorized rifle regiments in the Donetsk region, they will collapse our front.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 16, 2025

@GeromanAT has a bunch of updates from the front. I suppose Kiev finally no longer wants to acknowledge KIA/exchange ratio's.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Another exchange of bodies of soldiers between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

- Russian transferred 1,000 bodies
- Ukraine transferred 19 bodies

Ratio 52 Ukrainians for 1 Russian … hence Ukraine is not making it too public. pic.twitter.com/RiaHh2uwO0

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) July 17, 2025

Ol' Seymour Hersh thinks Trump might have cocaine Z-man replaced by the other Z-man.

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The prospect of the politician being replaced by former armed forces commander Valery Zaluzhny is reportedly growing amid waning domestic support and mounting frustration in Washington.

Zelensky suspended national elections under martial law and opted not to step down after his presidential term officially ended in 2024. His former top military commander, who was dismissed earlier this year and later appointed ambassador to the UK, has reportedly long been considered a potential successor.

"Zelensky is on a short list for exile, if [US] President Donald Trump decides to make the call," the veteran reporter wrote on Friday.

One US official familiar with internal discussions suggested that if Zelensky refuses to step down which they believe is the most likely scenario he may ultimately be removed by force.

Zaluzhny is currently seen as the most credible successor to Ukraine's leader, according to "knowledgeable" officials in Washington cited by Hersh, who added that the "job could be his within a few months."

Zelensky's popularity, which soared to 90% in the early months after the Ukraine conflict escalated in February 2022, has steadily declined due to battlefield setbacks and ongoing economic difficulties. The latest polls suggest that only 52% of Ukrainians still trust him, while around 60% would prefer he not seek another term.

Western media outlets have recently shifted their tone, with some portraying Zelensky as increasingly authoritarian. Others have reported that officials in Washington believe "it's time for an election and new leadership."

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One thing is true though, either way, the current 'President' has been shuffling folks all about his orbit in Kiev this week. Meh, whatever. Zelensky is obviously doing all that he can to retain his grip, and coups are difficult in authoritarian countries, whether it's Iran, Russia, or Kiev etc.

While fighting a war of survival against Russia, Ukraine must not turn into its authoritarian neighbor.

As Ukraine’s main independent English-language media outlet, we have a duty to acknowledge and expose this threat. https://t.co/dpjJcQrXtE

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 14, 2025

Germans got taken again, I guess.

🇺🇸🖕🇺🇦Trump deceived again: Europe has big problems sending Patriots to Ukraine

▪️The Patriot SAM from Germany for Ukraine will be ready only in 6-8 months, Bild writes citing a source in the German government.
▪️Initially, it was planned that Washington would transfer air… pic.twitter.com/qdNXOn9sX3

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) July 19, 2025

One would think the Kiev folks would stop doing camera shows at critical manufacturing/industrial facilities, while Chinese/Russian satellites tracked visitors.

🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 RUSSIA STRUCK THE DRONE MANUFACTURING SITE THAT KELLOGG VISITED!

Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg was tracked and the facilities he visited for propaganda videos, were hit by Russian drones.

This keeps happening, previously NATO instructors exposed a missile factory. pic.twitter.com/v6wPWSvoHz

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) July 21, 2025

Additional FIRMS data shows that a fire is burning from Geran impacts at the Kharkiv State Aircraft Manufacturing Company in the north of the city. pic.twitter.com/yCUecDxB09

— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) July 21, 2025

The Lukyanovskaya Metro Station in Kyiv was damaged during last night's Geran-2 drone strikes on the city. The Artem Defence plant was the target here, as it is across the road from the metro station. pic.twitter.com/fLXo1IftbY

— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) July 21, 2025

It just seems like unforced errors. Something like 400 strikes around Kiev last night.

Sitrep: Ukrainian cemetery mega-project…

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One of the reasons, by the way, that the French historian, Stphane Audoin-Rouzeau, saw Russia winning the war despite parallels to 'stalemated' conflicts like the Iran-Iraq war, is because in previous examples he believes the industrial capacities and general capabilities of the combatants were likewise roughly static.

But in the case of the Russo-Ukrainian war, he admits that Russian capabilities are growing each year, far out-pacing Ukrainian ones. This goes toward things like the previously-talked-about manpower gains of 100k per yearwhile Ukraine's manpower shrinksas well as the industrial growth of the arms industry.

That being said, there's one last important point to be made. Many point to Russia's "growing economic problems" as a counter-argument for why Russia could begin "losing" in the future, despite its seeming present dominance. I even saw one Western publication spin Putin's announcement that Russia would be reducing its military budget next year as an "act of desperation" which means Russian military capability is finally "weakening".

On the contrary, the signals here are the complete opposite: Putin's plan to begin slowly reining in Russia's military spending is the acknowledgement that Russia has finally reached a total equilibrium in the war, where current production levels are stable and sustainable indefinitely in relation to the losses. That means further inordinate military expansion is unnecessary, and Russia sees a successful path in defeating Ukraine at current levels.

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Hypersonic strikes.

Been saying it forever, Russia attrits where it’s most effective and then pushes when it stops being effective.

Territory is much easier to capture when “Brigades simply run out of men”- deepstate https://t.co/Bla7aUoEIb pic.twitter.com/WQBSApZF0V

— ayden (@squatsons) July 21, 2025

Zelensky is at least talking about more peace talks, seems to think he wants a 1:1 with Putin, for some reason.

#UkraineRussiaWar #MilitarySummary
Zelensky ready for 3rd round of talks tomorrow in Istanbul 🇹🇷💬
Pushes for discussion of potential Zelensky-Putin face-to-face meeting 🤝☢️

Russian forces continue offensive along entire front line 💥🔥
Reports emerging about mop-up operations… pic.twitter.com/pWPO9Twd4C

— Military Summary (@MilitarySummary) July 22, 2025

Riots and signs calling for "Maidan 2.0" in Kiev as Zelensky eliminates (via legislation passed by parliament) 'independent' anti-corruption agencies (which for some reason I guess have been controlled by EU functionaries?) Some calling on his boss Yermak to be 'gone.' Interesting. OECD, others have decried the move. Victoria 'eff the EU' Nuland was not spotted handing out cookies to the protesters (this time). What is real vs. fake, and does any of this matter? I dunno.

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Most eye-opening about the fall from grace is how boldly the chosen actors are playing their lines, pearl-clutching about some imagined 'repressions' of a pair of organizations virtually no one has heard of or cared about until a few days ago, in this case NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine) and SAPO (Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office).

There are myriad other far more pressing concerns for Ukraine, not even counting the war itself, and yet the pitched fight around some Biden-era "anti-corruption" watchdogs is what has animated the intelligentsia and paid-off 'influencer' sphere to take to the streets with pre-branded slogans and obligatory 'English'-scripted signs?

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Frank discussion with @Svyrydenko_Y and @taraskachka.

Expressed serious concerns over the latest Rule of Law developments, especially changes adopted to the law on NABU & SAPO.

We'll continue working with Ukraine on the necessary rule of law reforms & progress on its EU path. https://t.co/UVtTAbEzsz

— Marta Kos (@MartaKosEU) July 22, 2025

Trump questions Ukraine’s use of $350B in US aid, claiming Biden sent both equipment and cash. “I suspect not every dollar was spent as intended,” he says, calling for transparency pic.twitter.com/3wuX8sPOXQ

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) July 23, 2025

Talks in Istanbul between Kiev-Russian negotiators are happening, though the Russians have noted the two sides don't expect a 'breakthrough.' Syrsky noted an acute shortage of 155mm ammo, troops, other materiel for 'his' forces.

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I refer to the situation on the front, wherein today the Pokrovsk line has "catastrophically" deterioratedas per Ukraine's DeepState maps' words. One analyst even described it as the single largest one-day breakthrough of the war since Ukraine's own Kharkov offensive in late 2022. Russian forces were said to have sprinted somewhere between 6-10km in the north Pokrovsk region, cutting a critical road between Nove Shakhove and Shakhove. But I will refrain from elaborating on it in detail until next time, when it's determined if Russian forces actually established themselves in new positions there for definite or not.

But one can see the potential for this kind of perfect storm: an untimely frontline collapse just at the moment Zelensky is enduring his fiercest internal pressuresthings may get very interesting in Ukraine soon.

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More at the link. Whatever.

Putin-green goblin meeting agreed 'in principle' but won't happen this month/soon. Hunter Biden crime cover up of Ukrainian, Russian, Chinese lobbying continues even today.

I guess the Russians are advancing more, using armored vehicles again now, which may be why we have bizarre Nato threats to invade Kaliningrad.

https://t.co/b0Ff2K7cMG

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) July 28, 2025

Just insanity. General Donahue needs to be relieved of duty.

Quote:

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The Commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF), Gen. Christopher T. Donahue stated recently that NATO has developed a plan to capture Russia's heavily-fortified exclave of Kaliningrad "in a timeframe that is unheard of" in case of a full-scale conflict with Russia.
Planning for such an operation follows the implementation of a new allied strategy known as the "Eastern Flank Deterrence Line", which focuses on bolstering land forces, integrating defense production, and deploying standardized digital systems and launch platforms for rapid battlefield coordination within NATO. Further speaking about the new strategy, General Donahue stated, "The land domain is not becoming less important, it's becoming more important. You can now take down anti-access, area-denial bubbles from the ground. You can now take over sea from the ground. All of those things we are watching happen in Ukraine."

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This is a clear message from NATO: that continued provocative actions are meant to impel Russia into firing the first shot, so that NATO can cry "aggression".

Ironically enough, NATO bigwig 'Admiral' Rob Bauer made several contradictory statements, demonstrating just how confused and misaligned NATO is on its messaging. First he told Welt that, actually, a Russian attack on a puny Baltic state would not immediately trigger an armed NATO response:…

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We don't need wanna-be Patton's bragging about their plans to go to war with Russia in fatigues.

Denys vs. Willy is a bit amusing:

"Pro-Ukraine" vs Pro-Ukraine pic.twitter.com/cEEhLkuJTS

— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) July 28, 2025

You don't expect our military leaders to have attack plans for an adversary that has invaded another country? What exactly do you think a general's job is?

The absolute absurdity of such belligerent talk, from one of our most disgraced general officers (of "Kabul surrender/airlift" fame), btw, is not an indictment of wartime contingency planning, but rather that it shouldn't be made publicly by uniformed officers. "Apolitical," pfffft. Oh btw, the boast is also fantastically improbable. Does anyone really think the Russians would abandon their most significant port and a significant amount of nukes?

He isn't at war with Russia, ostensibly, and giving timelines/plans/threats public airing is irresponsible and if they should (be made publicly), it is the civilian/political leadership that should be doing it.

General Donahue, who failed upwards to command US Army - Europe after overseeing one of the worst days in the entire War on Terror during the Kabul Airlift, decided to run his mouth today about NATO being able to quickly conquer Kaliningrad.

Let's do the work his staff didn't.⬇️… pic.twitter.com/eJcIUkgosU

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) July 18, 2025

This is a flip side case of Milley telling the Chinese not to worry, he'd give them a heads up if ordered to attack.

LandEuro is a conference to provide information to NATO and European allies about the U.S.' role in the region. A vague one sentence remark about being able to take a Russian territory that shares multiple borders with NATO allies seems like nothing more than letting that audience know the U.S. has their back.

Go back to posting your dribble. I won't bother arguing with you anymore.

MaxPower said:

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LandEuro is a conference to provide information to NATO and European allies about the U.S.' role in the region. A vague one sentence remark about being able to take a Russian territory that shares multiple borders with NATO allies seems like nothing more than letting that audience know the U.S. has their back.

Go back to posting your dribble. I won't bother arguing with you anymore.

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It's also worth mentioning that Russian leaders and generals mouth constantly about what they'd do to NATO but when one of ours utters a once sentence blurb it's the worst thing ever. And using "Armchair Warlord" analysis, qwho has been so utterly and completely wrong about just about everything in this war, is icing on the cake.

Idiots like armchair anime enthusiast still trying to puff their chests out about Russia giving NATO a "bloody nose" is amusing

GAC06 said:

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Idiots like armchair anime enthusiast still trying to puff their chests out about Russia giving NATO a "bloody nose" is amusing

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Well, let's see, what is he idiotic about here?

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Let's do the work his staff didn't.

Although their detailed order of battle is somewhat unclear, the Russians appear to have 5-6 motor rifle regiments, a tank regiment, and a marine brigade stationed in Kaliningrad Oblast. In light of ongoing tensions with NATO and Kaliningrad's strategic location, there is no particular reason to believe this garrison has sent more than modest detachments to fight in Ukraine. The Russians can thus be expected to field approximately twenty-five maneuver battalions with appropriate enablers in defense of Kaliningrad.

If NATO intends to conduct this operation quickly, presumably they're not going to laboriously move the US Army to Poland over a period of months for a deliberate attack on Kaliningrad. They're going to attack with those forces currently in Poland and Lithuania on short notice. So what forces are those?

The Lithuanian Army has three brigades and a second front with Belarus to worry about. Presumably one could be committed to the battle. Assuming their strongest brigade - the "Iron Wolves" - is committed, that makes four NATO battalions.

The Poles have about 60 maneuver battalions in six divisions (their org chart on Wikipedia shows 54, but I'm charitably assuming they've added several since 2023). About half of those can be expected to be deployed to defend on the Belarusian border, leaving 30 for NATO's 2025 East Prussian Offensive.

There is additionally a US Army armored brigade forward-deployed to Poland and a NATO battlegroup in Lithuania at the moment. Charitably this makes for five more maneuver battalions - let's say the US Army wants in on the offensive and sends in the brigade in Poland, contributing four battalions.

Ergo, the force array here is 38 NATO battalions attacking 25 Russian ones fighting from exhaustively-prepared positions and under an integrated air defense umbrella that can be expected to disrupt NATO air operations deep into central Poland. Fighting an enemy with high-intensity combat experience, a modern drone corps, and high-speed sensor to shooter links at 3:2 odds is not a recipe for rapid success. It's a recipe for NATO to get a bloody nose and rapidly lose the Suwalki Corridor and the Baltics after underestimating its enemy and dissipating its ready combat power on a failed coup de main.

Donahue is either bluffing or he's an idiot and the USAREUR staff are incompetent - someone with his level of supposed expertise shouldn't even need to be briefed on a force array this elementary, let alone get the takeaway so dramatically wrong. In any event, I'm sure the Russian commander in Kaliningrad (according to Wikipedia, that would be MG Andrey Ruzinsky of the Russian 11th Corps) rolled his eyes at Donahue's comments when he was informed of the matter.

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Oh but General "I bugged out of Kabul with 25K Afghans after giving up Bagram, and Abbey Gate" is now going to mastermind and brag about this plan, which also relies on the farcical Baltic units?

ISW: Russian Armed Forces are approaching positions from which they can shell Zaporizhzhia with artillery.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian troops have advanced in the west of Zaporizhzhia region — in particular, to the southern part of Stepnohirsk. This… pic.twitter.com/i0qXRdG1ml

— -- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 -- (@GeromanAT) July 28, 2025

The US should be prioritizing our own security at this point, not looking to start a broader direct conflict with our troops. I highly doubt his boast was something Hegseth anticipated/approved of.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5423183-trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-deadline/amp/

Trump now shortening deadline for Russia to agree to ceasefire to 2 weeks before he finally brings out a bigger stick (hopefully). No doubt a move by Trump linked to the trade talks/agreements with the EU this weekend. EU buys $750 billion more in energy from U.S. and agrees to invest more in U.S. as well as buy a bunch of military stuff and in return Trump is hopefully going to stop dancing around Vlad who has been and never will be his 'friend'.

The flaw in your argument has always been that the largest trade partner (and military allies) of the United States….the EU and NATO…really really wants the United States to prioritize the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

So, if someone wants the United States to detach completely from that issue, then they have to either go with the premise:

1) The EU and NATO are not important to the United States economic and security interests. So f*** em.

Or

2) The EU and NATO are important but f*** em anyway. We can still bully them into good trade negotiations and doing what we want on a variety of other things even though we gave them the middle finger regarding the topic of Ukraine.

And that would have to be a thread within itself. If either 1 or 2 above were feasible paths to take.

Trump isn't going to take either of those paths. He realistically can't. So the U.S. will stay engaged in this conflict.

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Well, let's see, what is he idiotic about here?

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Pretty much all of it, from the ludicrous assumption that NATO can't move forces to the idea that Russias air defenses there would be much more than a speed bump. I'm sure anime guy knows better though, Russia is super tough and scary but also no threat at all, comrade.

I think such a dichotomy is too simplistic, but somewhat agree. Yes, European leadership truly does think they need to help Ukraine, but I also think that reflects a degree of nefarious control our rule of law/USAID types have exerted via Open Society types of NGO's over the past 40 years. They believe their own propaganda.

It's still failing their people, utterly. Yet, now, those USIP/USAID etc. folks are pretty disempowered finally. And the cows are coming home so to speak economically (hence the pressure on Ursula to just make a deal, any deal.)

Medvedev's take, while obviously easy to anticipate, is somewhat in agreement/entertaining;

Dmitry Medvedev on the US-EU "trade deal":

"Trump Wipes the Floor with Europe

Say what you will about Trump — for all his contradictions and bombastic statements, he’s remarkably consistent in one thing: ruthlessly pushing America’s economic interests.

This latest “deal” with… pic.twitter.com/zKmepwq9xH

— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) July 28, 2025

The next question is, what does Trump need European sentiment/approval for, after this trade deal? Anything? I can't think of why he would care, just as I don't really care what happens with the Kiev regime. As far as I am concerned, from an American 'realpolitik' perspective, all of those tears/opinions/takes are just expendable.
Trump will continue to rattle the cages of both Putin and Z-man proverbially I am sure, but I doubt any real substantive agenda of aid (as in, legislation) or other actions follow. Maybe the exception would be some sanctions on Russians (including finally Biden crime familia allies), that might finally get Putin's pals attention. I dunno, but again don't really care, other than hoping the proxy war can finally end.

I almost care more about European censorship of American social media (like X) than this conflict at this point.

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Fighting an enemy with high-intensity combat experience, a modern drone corps, and high-speed sensor to shooter links at 3:2 odds is not a recipe for rapid success. It's a recipe for NATO to get a bloody nose and rapidly lose the Suwalki Corridor and the Baltics after underestimating its enemy and dissipating its ready combat power on a failed coup de main.

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The russians with actual combat experience are usually dead within days. And seeing Russia struggle with Ukraine for 3 years against our hand me downs after what was supposed to take a few days lends one to be highly suspect of their ability against much better conventional military in NATO forces.

Armchair Warlord's flaw is that he still believes Russia as a capable and formidable military with modern weapons. They are a decimated force, with most of their experienced officers and NCO corps dead or dying every day. Russia would be no match in a conventional conflict anywhere in Europe at this time.