Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

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aggiehawg
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In reply to Teslag • 9:32a, 7/28/25
AG
Quote:
Armchair Warlord's flaw is that he still believes Russia as a capable and formidable military with modern weapons. They are a decimated force, with most of their experienced officers and NCO corps dead or dying every day. Russia would be no much in a conventional conflict anywhere in Europe at this time.

I was under the impression the Russian military did not have a NCO structure. Is that incorrect?
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Teslag
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:42a, 7/28/25
AG
They didn't under the Soviets but somewhat shifted in the decades since. Most of what they had was lost in 2022 and they haven't rebuilt it since moving to just throwing bodies at the problem. It's also what would get them absolutely annihilated in a conventional war with NATO among other things.

Russia's only claim to superpower status is their nuclear arsenal. Their conventional forces are presently no better than many single nations in NATO.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Teslag • 9:46a, 7/28/25
AG
Teslag said:
They didn't under the Soviets but somewhat shifted in the decades since. Most of what they had was lost in 2022 and they haven't rebuilt it since moving to just throwing bodies at the problem. It's also what would get them absolutely annihilated in a conventional war with NATO among other things.

Russia's only claim to superpower status is their nuclear arsenal. Their conventional forces are presently no better than many single nations in NATO.

Okay, thanks. Not the best time to rebuild an NCO corps during actual wartime. Who is left to teach them?
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nortex97
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:11a, 7/28/25
AG
aggiehawg said:
Teslag said:
They didn't under the Soviets but somewhat shifted in the decades since. Most of what they had was lost in 2022 and they haven't rebuilt it since moving to just throwing bodies at the problem. It's also what would get them absolutely annihilated in a conventional war with NATO among other things.

Russia's only claim to superpower status is their nuclear arsenal. Their conventional forces are presently no better than many single nations in NATO.

Okay, thanks. Not the best time to rebuild an NCO corps during actual wartime. Who is left to teach them?

That's really just not accurate. Really, I don't want to get into a 'debate' with the poster you quoted but ultimately the Russians have more commissioned vs. non-commissioned officers, leading to some popular misperceptions.
Quote:
But in terms of commissioned officers, Russia has much more on average30% of the armed forces were officers in Russia, while only 16% for NATO countries, from one statistic.

In fact, years ago Russia had begun staffing officers into NCO roles. So you'd have lieutenants doing sergeants' duties, for instance. This partly explains why even Russia's previous "lack" of NCOs was to some extents misunderstood and overestimated. After all, if you have much higher trained, actual officers doing the work of an NCO, on top of the officers leading the unit, then where's the problem?

Some in the West believe this partly explains why Russian officers are known to fight more on the frontlines, compared to their Western counterparts. And perhaps there's some truth to that. Some experts say that Russian sergeants perform more of an "SME" (subject matter expert) role rather than a "leadership" role. i.e. they can teach the grunts the intricacies of all the weapons systems, but don't have the leadership capabilities to "take over" for the officer, should he be absent for whatever reasoni.e. killed or simply leading "from the rear". Perhaps there was some truth to this long ago, but like I said, there have been strong reforms and investments in training sergeants and they no longer resemble those of the pre-2010 period.

Also, since Russia is much more officer heavy, more officers tend to die on average than in comparable countries just by their sheer overabundance. This feeds the perception that they always haphazardly "fight on the frontline". In reality, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

More at the link. The myth that this is somehow a meat grinder where leadership is killed off rapidly is just that. Command down to small unit leadership has much more combat experience vs. 1,2, or 4 etc. years ago.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:27a, 7/28/25
AG
Thanks for that clarification.
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Teslag
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:17a, 7/28/25
AG
aggiehawg said:
Thanks for that clarification.


I would take that link provided with a massive boulder of salt. "Simplicious" is a Russian MOD backer and is likely supported/funded by them. Basically been wrong about everything in this war up till now. The western style NCO corps is light years better and more effective than the Russian officer heavy model. Mainly, in that NCO's are usually seasoned and experienced and lead mainly by earned respect for said experience. You can't replace that. But it doesn't work in the Russian style because, well, their soldiers by design don't last very long.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Teslag • 11:19a, 7/28/25
AG
Just fight among yourselves. I was simply asking a question because I was confused and thank people who respond.
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Teslag
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:21a, 7/28/25
AG
See edit above. There is nothing better than the American NCO corps. The Russians tried and failed to mimic it. They couldn't. It's just not in their DNA. Plus they killed them all in 2022.
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Teslag
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:23a, 7/28/25
AG
aggiehawg said:
Teslag said:
They didn't under the Soviets but somewhat shifted in the decades since. Most of what they had was lost in 2022 and they haven't rebuilt it since moving to just throwing bodies at the problem. It's also what would get them absolutely annihilated in a conventional war with NATO among other things.

Russia's only claim to superpower status is their nuclear arsenal. Their conventional forces are presently no better than many single nations in NATO.

Okay, thanks. Not the best time to rebuild an NCO corps during actual wartime. Who is left to teach them?


No one. And that's one of the main reasons why Russia is still bogged down in a stalemate 3 years after they were supposed to roll Kiev in days. And it's why Russia would fall apart in the face of a NATO confrontation.
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nortex97
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4:17a, 7/30/25
AG
Russian intelligence claim the regime change (Z to Z) is happening soon:
Quote:
US and UK officials have secretly met with key Ukrainian powerbrokers to discuss ousting Vladimir Zelensky and replacing him with former military chief Valery Zaluzhny, according to Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

In a statement on Tuesday, the SVR claimed Western officials had gathered at an undisclosed Alpine resort with top Zelensky aide Andrey Yermak, Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov, and Zaluzhny, who is currently Kiev's ambassador to the UK.

According to the agency, all sides agreed "it is high time" for Zelensky to be replaced and called the change "a key condition for resetting Kiev's relations with the West and continuing Western military aid."

The SVR reported that US and UK officials told their Ukrainian counterparts they want Zaluzhny to become president. The agency claimed that Yermak and Budanov "saluted" the plan and secured promises that they would keep their current posts if Zaluzhny took over.



Will just have to see if this is correct, this time.
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nortex97
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2:18p, 8/1/25
AG
Trump, with a wildly different casualty set of estimates for the year, today;

Who knows, really.
Putin, with some skepticism about the motivations etc.

Some horrific images overnight (CST) of families/kids etc. killed around Kiev.
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nortex97
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4:49a, 8/2/25
AG
Busification leading to civil unrest/riots in 'Ukraine.'

Sitrep; Chasov Yar, Pokrovsk, Zelensky sink.
Quote:
In Konstantinovka, CNN found even worse problems, with one commander telling CNN:
Quote:
Vasyl, a commander with the 93rd Mechanized brigade, said he had not been sent new personnel for eight months, and was forced to resupply frontline positions of only two men with drones, airlifting in food, water and ammunition.

"No one wants to fight", he said. "The old personnel are left, they are tired and want to be replaced, but no one is replacing them." He blamed Ukrainian officers for giving inaccurate reports of the front line to their superiors. "A lot of things are not communicated and are hidden," he said. "We don't communicate a lot of things to our state. Our state doesn't communicate a lot of things to the people."

CNN admits that Russian forces are now threatening Kupyansk as well, and the simultaneous fall of these major cities on top of Zelensky's political crisis is a perfect storm in the making:
Quote:
The accumulative effect of a Ukrainian manpower crisis, the turbulence of Kyiv's relationship with the Trump White House, and uncertain supplies of weaponry, are a perfect storm that has broken in the face of the vigor and persistence of a Russian summer offensive, whose progress is no longer incremental but is reshaping the conflict and bringing Putin closer to some of his goals fast.


More, including the comments at the link are interesting updates.
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nortex97
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7:15a, 8/7/25
AG
In the stupid Biden proxy war which everyone is sick of hearing about/funding news, Witkoff met for 3 hours with Putin, and now Trump wants to do the same next week, and then also Zelensky. Not sure but this would be appealing I'd think.

For their part, the Russians seem to be conveying an intent to have the meeting with Trump, and haven't trashed the proposals/talks.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:12a, 8/7/25
AG
Above seems roughly the only type of peace deal that could stop this.

Russia has to get something out of the tremendous cost they've spent in treasure and blood, so you gotta recognize them getting Crimea and eastern Ukrainian land they've occupied. Because Ukraine realistically is never going to be able to militarily take that back.

That said, Russia is going to have to recognize the stupidity of trying to take all of Ukraine, of trying to topple the Zelensky government, where a large portion of Ukrainians in the Western part particularly hate Moscow (and the last 3 years have only made that hate worse)...so Russia trying to achieve that grand goal was always dumb both for them and for Europe who didn't want to have to deal with yet an even worse refugee crisis if that somehow happened. And why in the world would Russia want to deal with trying to manage a population that would constantly fight against them? If you break it, you own it as famously said.

Not to mention Russia really hasn't even shown the military capability to achieve that goal, if has been and would most likely simply continue to be a 'forever war' for them just gradually bleeding their population and economy.

So Russia has to give up that idea and also recognize that the Ukraine remaining is its own sovereign country that is going to have the right to defend itself, continue to maintain a healthy military that yes will probably be heavily invested into by the West, join the EU if it wants, and yes even NATO membership has to continue to be an option out there if Russia continues to act like they want to start land grabbing again.

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nortex97
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 8:53a, 8/9/25
AG
I don't think peace is achievable while Zelensky is in Kiev still, at this point.


"Decisions can work?" Starmer has zero impact on ending the war, and is a feckless moron himself. He might as well be praising the president of Latvia. Put down the phone/social media, you clown. Maybe take a nap or something.

Quote:
I spoke with UK Prime Minister @Keir_Starmer. I am grateful for the support. We share the same view on the need for a truly lasting peace for Ukraine and on the danger of Russia's plan to reduce everything to discussing the impossible.

Clear steps are needed, as well as maximum coordination between us and our partners. We value the determination of the United Kingdom, the United States, and all our partners to end the war.

We are actively working for constructive diplomacy and to ensure that the decisions can work. We agreed on further contacts.

Victoria Nuland over at the Columbia School of International Affairs must be so proud.
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nortex97
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6:08a, 8/10/25
AG

Kind of an amazing article.

No doubt true. The war caucus in Europe/Kiev will push to sabotage any peace, but especially one which Trump might get/take any credit for.

The war is useful to the left/globalists in Europe to ensure the de-industrialization of Europe, especially Central Europe, continues. 40 cents/kw/hr is somewhat common in the block.
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SlimM
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8:04a, 8/10/25
AG
One of the summit participants could instantly stop the war if he wanted to. Seems like HE'S the one who actually wants it to continue.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to GAC06 • 8:11a, 8/10/25
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nortex97
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6:43a, 8/26/25
AG
Some updates I guess, since some of the other politics threads have died off on the topic of everyone's favorite war. We're not funding it, won't play a role in security guarantees, and not providing targeting/support for strikes deep into Russia.
Quote:
Trump claimed that Washington was being "fleeced" under previous US administrations, which he said had committed $350 billion to Kiev.

"I don't blame Ukraine… if they come and ask for a hundred billion dollars and they get it," he remarked, calling Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky "the greatest salesman I think I've ever met."

"We don't pay any money to Ukraine anymore. Do you know that? In fact, it's the opposite. They request through NATO. We deal with NATO. We don't deal really with Ukraine," Trump explained. "NATO pays us in full and does what they want."

Trump also emphasized that Washington would play only a supporting role in providing any security guarantees for Kiev, stressing that European nations should take the lead.

Zelensky and his Western European backers have called for "Article 5-like guarantees" that would obligate countries to respond collectively if Ukraine were attacked. Kiev has reportedly asked these supporters to allocate $100 billion to procure US-made weapons, according to the Financial Time

Trump met Putin and then Zelensky of course, rating the Putin meeting a 10, and Zelensky seemed to leave with his tail tucked/committed to meeting with Putin directly next. Some big issue/sticking point remains which we don't know about, and Zelensky alternates on days when he is high or not as to whether he is willing to part with land/territory he doesn't control or not. Yesterday was a 'zero reality/high as a kite' day.


Ramstein pro-war group summit (sans the US, again) on Sept 9th coming up. Next EU sanctions package won't sanction Russian energy. US offers energy deals as incentives for peace to Russia:

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