Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

70,053 Views | 1025 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by nortex97
Aggie1205
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One of our demands for any meeting with Putin should be that Russia restore American owned businesses that were seized back to their American owners. Not sure why we are OK with them doing that.
flown-the-coop
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Aggie1205 said:

One of our demands for any meeting with Putin should be that Russia restore American owned businesses that were seized back to their American owners. Not sure why we are OK with them doing that.
I think the Russians may have some complaints on foreign assets of theirs that were seized.

And places like McDonalds withdrew from Russia on their own in the name of Slava Ukraine! back in 2022.

Companies should be wary of investing in socialist dictatorship places like Russia, China, Venezuela and when the US has the Dems in charge.
FarmerJohn
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Our only "demand" should be a ceasefire. A ceasfire starts both sides in accepting a politcal reality, which is the only way we are going to stop hemmoraging military aid and see something for our efforts. Yes, it would be great if siezed assets were returned, but Russia will demands theirs as well. Negotiating that will take time and, if you make it a pre-condition, delays the most important goal.

(Also, time is more of an ally of Russia than Ukraine.)
nortex97
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The airplanes in particular are a mess, because many have since been operated, and/or stripped for parts so it's not just 'here they are, you can have them back now.' The same with some of the manufacturing facilities (such as auto's). I think there was a Renault/french auto plant that had substantial investment/tooling changes to switch to making a similar, but now Russian vehicle.

Not real sure what the answer will be.


Pretty much the same as was offered in June.

ETA: a 1000 person POW swap was at least agreed to. Redstate.
4
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Man, I just don't care anymore.

Both of these countries are corrupt as hell, and Z's attitude throughout has really got me to the point that I want to say, "Fine, dumbass. It's your problem, deal with it on your own. Good luck, bye."
nortex97
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CTH: Zelensky and EU allies unite against Trump.
Quote:

The agenda behind Zelenskyy and his handlers is very clear, the EU need to keep distance between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin; so, they keep playing the narrative game around the pretense of a 'ceasefire.'

Using his Twitter account today, the vertically challenged EU members led by Volodymyr Zelenskyy note, "if the Russians reject a full and unconditional ceasefire and an end to killings, tough sanctions must follow. Pressure on Russia must be maintained until Russia is ready to end the war."

It's all about the money!

For President Trump and Vladimir Putin to join in strategic interest is to disrupt the global order of things, and I do mean everything. The military industrial complex, the global banking system, the World Economic Forum assembly, the multinational stock markets, the world trade system, the entire European continent, Asian continent, Australian continent, African continent and North American continent, as well as every conflict therein, could be impacted by joint decisions between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. To say the stakes are high, would be to understate the scale of the dynamic.
Idiots, the lot of them. He's sure not making it real likely Trump looks to send him more cash/ammo. Trump interview yesterday:

SITREP: Russia stands firm in Istanbul as cabal runs out of options. So much for "The EU will replace the US for aid" narrative I've heard so much about.
Quote:

Firstly, it must be said outright that all doomers who claimed Russia was capitulating, and that Putin was again being 'led by the nose' toward a Minsk-3-style disaster were proven wrong. By all accounts, the Russian team was even firmer than expected on the chief demands.

Let's also mention that Ukraine had already admitted their only goal in the negotiations was to push for a truce or ceasefire with Russia, as it has now become the common agenda between Zelensky and Europe to force Russia into a 30-day ceasefire. This would be pushed into indefinite status so that European troops can be injected into theater and the conflict frozen for good, while Ukraine is pumped up to the gills with more lethal aid.

Starting off, the Ukrainian side appeared to try and 'intimidate' the Russian side by dressing in military fatigues, while the Russian side donned formal wear…

Quote:

Another interesting quote:
Quote:

One of the members of the Ukrainian delegation said during the negotiations that Russia plans to attack Poland in 2030.

The Russian delegation laughed, and Medinsky asked "not to transfer the negotiations into the fantasy genre."
The fact is, the West is only now slowly coming around to the reality that Russia is winning and has all the leverage to dictate terms.
More at the link, notably Syrsky's admission that RU forces in the former Ukraine are now over 640K.

Ah well, forever war.
nortex97
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Rejecting Russia's terms looks to have been yet another gross miscalculation by Kiev. Liman evacuated by Kiev. Geroman has a lot more on his timeline, fwiw (and Ayden/amk mapping).

There is still 'some' 'reporting' I guess, from the western MSM.

PlaneCrashGuy
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I thought peace was very close a couple months ago. I was wrong. At this point, I don't see how it can end without Ukraine deciding to submit.
flown-the-coop
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I am anything but a Slava Ukraine, but Trump has a few cards left to deal Putin on the negotiations.

Resolving Iran, getting Arabian peninsula realigned with our interests, and weakening China's economy could be just as effective as additional sanctions on Russia, and can delay us providing additional support to Ukraine military or financially.

Biden & Blinken ****ed this whole thing up royally from the get go. And filling the Great Z's head with all the hero worship has turned out to be not such a good idea.
docb
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2x02l95zno.amp
Imagine that. The Pope meeting with Zelensky and not the murderous Putin.
BadMoonRisin
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nortex97 said:


Rejecting Russia's terms looks to have been yet another gross miscalculation by Kiev. Liman evacuated by Kiev. Geroman has a lot more on his timeline, fwiw (and Ayden/amk mapping).

There is still 'some' 'reporting' I guess, from the western MSM.


They likely had the same attitude in WW2, when they were "war-weary" and fled from the battlefield and were rewarded by being machine-gunned by their own countrymen.
samurai_science
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docb said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2x02l95zno.amp
Imagine that. The Pope meeting with Zelensky and not the murderous Putin.


Imagine anyone caring
Pumpkinhead
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Russia doesn't want peace. The right wing nationalists and Putin are running the show.

Can't say that Trump admin didn't kiss Putin's ass and bend over backward giving him every chance to end this keeping pretty much all the land already grabbed.

But the Russians still want a lot more. They want all the annexed land plus a disarmed Ukraine (no peace keeping forces) so that Ukraine is a sitting duck for future attacks after Russia catches its breath.

Since they are not going to get that then I suspect Trump will have no choice but to continue militarily supporting Ukraine because he won't want a Fall Of Saigon event to embarrass his legacy.

It may be a bit more low profile support to not ruffle MAGA feathers as much but the first signs of a continued support of Ukraine have already appeared:

See for example this a couple weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/01/trump-administration-readies-first-sale-of-military-equipment-to-ukraine

And Russia? Will this ultimately have been 'worth it' improving the lives of people in their country? They will get a bunch of land out of it but lost a lot of lives, Finland is now a member of NATO because of this and Poland is much more greatly armed to the teeth. It is causing tremendous pressure on Western Europe countries in general to dramatically increase their military spending so a decade from now Russia will have better armed Western adversaries than it does today.

at the end of the day Russia's GDP is a fraction of the West so economically in the long run they are at a severe economic disadvantage. It is hard to see how this adventure by Putin is making the lives of his Russian citizens better off.
BadMoonRisin
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Pumpkinhead said:

Can't say that Trump admin didn't kiss Putin's ass and bend over backward giving him every chance to end this keeping pretty much all the land already grabbed.

Oh please. Show your work.

Crimea was surrendered under Obama and the Donbas with Biden, who's son was on the payroll (he was on the board) of Gazprom.

How is this Trumps fault? Be specific.

The only time where there was stability in the region was during Donald Trumps presidency!

Pumpkinhead
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BadMoonRisin said:

Pumpkinhead said:

Can't say that Trump admin didn't kiss Putin's ass and bend over backward giving him every chance to end this keeping pretty much all the land already grabbed.

Oh please. Show your work.

Crimea was surrendered under Obama and the Donbas with Biden, who's son was on the payroll in Gazprom.

How is this Trumps fault? Be specific.


What 'work to show?' I was referring to the past 3 months that Trump has been mostly 'carrot' and little 'stick' to Putin and clearly has been willing to let Russia keep most if not all of the land that Russia has grabbed. Where in that statement did you feel I was inaccurate to trigger your post?

Trump admin has taken a MUCH softer position vs Russia than the Biden admin did, in the hopes of getting a quick peace deal. But Putin doesn't want a peace deal. Seems like every time the Trump admin lets them have X, then the Russians ask for yet even more to stall out the process.

BadMoonRisin
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Pumpkinhead said:

BadMoonRisin said:

Pumpkinhead said:

Can't say that Trump admin didn't kiss Putin's ass and bend over backward giving him every chance to end this keeping pretty much all the land already grabbed.

Oh please. Show your work.

Crimea was surrendered under Obama and the Donbas with Biden, who's son was on the payroll in Gazprom.

How is this Trumps fault? Be specific.


What 'work to show?' I was referring to the past 3 months that Trump has been mostly 'carrot' and little 'stick' to Putin and clearly has been willing to let Russia keep most if not all of the land that Russia has grabbed. Where in that statement did you feel I was inaccurate to trigger your post?

Trump admin has taken a MUCH softer position vs Russia than the Biden admin did, in the hopes of getting a quick peace deal. But Putin doesn't want a peace deal. Seems like every time the Trump admin lets them have X, then the Russians ask for yet even more to stall out the process.


Trump wants to stop the killing and endless war. He ran on this as a policy choice.

You blaming him for 3 months of effort, and ignoring the past 10 years of re-tard-itude that the people you likely voted for is just par for the course.

Who was it that famously pressed the "reset button" regarding Russia and what party did they represent? Who was it that said that "the 1980s wants their foreign policy back?" What party did he belong to?

If Trump is to blame for the last 3 months, shouldnt these other folks be complicit, at least a little bit?
Pumpkinhead
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My intent wasn't to blame Trump. I think he did the right thing trying to aggressively negotiate and end to this the last 3 months.

The only thing I question is whether he unnecessarily hamstrung his leverage playing mostly the 'carrot' approach. But the effort was made and Russia was given a great window to end this.

But Russia doesn't seem to want to end it so it will probably continue. Because I don't think it is truly politically acceptable for the U.S. to just abandon Ukraine either (and its Western allies). Military support will continue to be funneled there.
BadMoonRisin
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Pumpkinhead said:

My intent wasn't to blame Trump.
OK, then what is this?

Quote:

Can't say that Trump admin didn't kiss Putin's ass and bend over backward giving him every chance to end this keeping pretty much all the land already grabbed.
More lying?

Just take the L.

You voted for two people who took it up the keister to support Putin's regime.

That's not debatable, no matter how many tears you spew about "TRUMP!"
docb
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samurai_science said:

docb said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2x02l95zno.amp
Imagine that. The Pope meeting with Zelensky and not the murderous Putin.


Imagine anyone caring

The Pope prays for people like you as well. Imagine that.
Pumpkinhead
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BadMoonRisin said:

Pumpkinhead said:

My intent wasn't to blame Trump.
OK, then what is this?

Quote:

Can't say that Trump admin didn't kiss Putin's ass and bend over backward giving him every chance to end this keeping pretty much all the land already grabbed.
More lying?

Just take the L.

You voted for two people who took it up the keister to support Putin's regime.

That's not debatable, no matter how many tears you spew about "TRUMP!"


I didn't vote for Biden and I think you misread that post. I was criticizing the Russians.

IMO in May 2025, Putin deserves more blame then anyone else for every person that dies from here on out. The Trump admin gave them a huge window of opportunity to end this thing while getting a lot of stuff in return…and Putin seemingly wants more to continue pushing the conflict.
BadMoonRisin
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Pumpkinhead said:

BadMoonRisin said:

Pumpkinhead said:

My intent wasn't to blame Trump.
OK, then what is this?

Quote:

Can't say that Trump admin didn't kiss Putin's ass and bend over backward giving him every chance to end this keeping pretty much all the land already grabbed.
More lying?

Just take the L.

You voted for two people who took it up the keister to support Putin's regime.

That's not debatable, no matter how many tears you spew about "TRUMP!"


I didn't vote for Biden and I think you misread that post.
OK. and no, i dont think i "misread" your post.

You support people who enable Vladimir Putin to continue to take land and then lambast "right wingers" for thinking Trump is somehow a Russian asset, controlled by Putin.

Low IQ people, for sure.
Pumpkinhead
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BadMoonRisin said:

Pumpkinhead said:

BadMoonRisin said:

Pumpkinhead said:

My intent wasn't to blame Trump.
OK, then what is this?

Quote:

Can't say that Trump admin didn't kiss Putin's ass and bend over backward giving him every chance to end this keeping pretty much all the land already grabbed.
More lying?

Just take the L.

You voted for two people who took it up the keister to support Putin's regime.

That's not debatable, no matter how many tears you spew about "TRUMP!"


I didn't vote for Biden and I think you misread that post.
OK. and no, i dont think i "misread" your post.

You support people who enable Vladimir Putin to continue to take land and then lambast "right wingers" for thinking Trump is somehow a Russian asset, controlled by Putin.

Low IQ people, for sure.



Ah I see what triggered you. Yeah, you misread but doesn't matter. Just a message board. You win! I concede!
PlaneCrashGuy
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I understand Russia is asking for a lot, but I don't ser them settling for less down the road. In fact, I'd expect Russia to ask for more as they start to feel like they're winning.
benchmark
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

I understand Russia is asking for a lot, but I don't ser them settling for less down the road. In fact, I'd expect Russia to ask for more as they start to feel like they're winning.
Ya think?

LIke when they wanted more by trying to take Kiev in 2022? LIke when they bombed Aleppo to oblivion in 2016? Like when they took Crimia in 2014? Like when they invaded Georgia in 2008?
nortex97
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Putin and Trump to chat today, amid accelerating Russian gains.

Not welcome post-war into the EU:

If the AFU is demobilized in substantial part in a peace agreement, would it lead to regime change in Kiev? Possibly, which is one driver limiting Kiev's ability/willingness to agree to Russian terms. Witkoff on talks:
Quote:

Witkoff hailed the talks in Trkiye as "good achievements," and reaffirmed that Trump would like to broker a stable ceasefire followed by a "final peace deal."

"I believe that the president is going to have a very successful call with Vladimir Putin," Witkoff told ABC's This Week on Sunday. "They know each other. The president is determined to get something done here… If he can't do it, then nobody can."

Asked whether Moscow's terms were too harsh, Witkoff said the conflict was "very complicated" and that the sides must find compromises.

"I think in a negotiation like this, people take positions," he said. "The art here is to narrow that wide berth. And I think to some extent we've done that. Monday will go a long way towards identifying where we are and how we complete this negotiation."

Trump also expressed hope that Monday will be a "productive day." He added that he plans to speak with Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky and "various members of NATO" after his call with Putin. At the same time, he warned that Moscow could face "crushing sanctions" if no progress is made, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that Washington is determined to avoid "endless talks" without results.
Pumpkinhead
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

I understand Russia is asking for a lot, but I don't ser them settling for less down the road. In fact, I'd expect Russia to ask for more as they start to feel like they're winning.

Below is the kind of thing hopefully we'll start to see from the Trump administration in conjunction with the West. Stop f***ing around with Putin continuing to stall any chance at a peace process.

Russia's GDP is less than the GDP of the state of Texas. Russia would have no chance of 'winning' an economic war of attrition versus the entire West whose combined economy strength is several magnitudes greater than Russia. Same reason the Soviet Union eventually got broken trying to compete in an arms race against NATO. The 'carrot' approach by itself isn't working. All that is doing is feeding hubris of Putin and his lackeys and emboldening the Russian's greed to keep pushing the boundaries and not wanting to come to the negotiating table. So IMO it is time to go with a Big Stick component. Tariff the hell out of any country trading energy with Russia (here is looking at you China). Fire a huge warning shot at their primary income stream. Meanwhile, also be clear that military support of Ukraine will continue.

And...important to actually reach a peace deal, simultaneously keep feeding Putin some carrots that he can keep Crimea and at least part of the Donbass, that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO, etc. That's fine. Ukraine is going to have to make some concessions. But the remaining Ukraine is going to be armed and there will be a peace keeping force component as well. The Russian's can walk away with a 'win' but they are going to have to make some concessions as well. I'd like to see clear signs that the Trump administration is slapping them on the side of the f***ing head and saying 'Look, it is time for this to end and here is your chance to get out while the getting is good'.

And if they refuse, well okay, then do the economic war of attrition while extracting blood from Russia meter by meter in Ukraine and see how long before Russia breaks.

-----

Donald Trump is reportedly beginning to lose patience with Vladimir Putin, according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who spoke following a conversation with the American president.

Stubb said that Trump and Putin, scheduled to speak by phone on Monday, cannot determine the future of Ukraine without consulting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.


He also noted that U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal may introduce a new package of financial sanctions against Russia in Congress, depending on the outcome of the call.


Speaking at a security event in Estonia, Stubb said: "If we were to pull it together, we could say that Zelenskyy is patient and President Trump is starting to be impatientbut in the right direction, that is, towards Russia."

The Finnish leader warned that threatening sanctions without following through could undermine the credibility of Western nations.

The proposed sanctions package reportedly includes a 500% tariff on goods from any country conducting energy trade with Russia.
PlaneCrashGuy
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I would prefer to see Trump wash his hands and walk away than continue to insert us where we never belonged to begin with. He wont do this, but he needs to say: "we tried, we couldn't bring the two sides together, Europe this is your problem now"

From your post-

"Meanwhile, also be clear that military support of Ukraine will continue."

This is a non starter for me. I am not a fan of funding Europe's wars.
nortex97
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docb said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2x02l95zno.amp
Imagine that. The Pope meeting with Zelensky and not the murderous Putin.
I am not clear why there would be a perception Putin requested a meeting. Putin rarely travels abroad.

The Pope meets with global actors/officials who are in Rome pretty regularly, especially Catholic ones, regardless of the politics du jour.
docb
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Just interesting that Zelinsky if the first head of state to have a meeting with the Pope. I would not expect Putin to seek out a meeting. I think that he is afraid to travel abroad for his safety. Plus he is about as close to the devil as we have walking the planet right now, so no, I would not expect a meeting with the most recognized and respected religious figure in the world.
samurai_science
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docb said:

Just interesting that Zelinsky if the first head of state to have a meeting with the Pope. I would not expect Putin to seek out a meeting. I think that he is afraid to travel abroad for his safety. Plus he is about as close to the devil as we have walking the planet right now, so no, I would not expect a meeting with the most recognized and respected religious figure in the world.
Citation needed
nortex97
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Well, talks roll on I guess.

Good to see, ultimately. Europe/nato must be brought to heel of peace is to be reached though, imho.
benchmark
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nortex97 said:

Good to see, ultimately. Europe/nato must be brought to heel of peace is to be reached though, imho.
Ultimately what? I can't keep count ... how many times has Trump claimed Russia will imediately start negotiating with Ukraine on a ceasfire? LMAO.
PlaneCrashGuy
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benchmark said:

nortex97 said:

Good to see, ultimately. Europe/nato must be brought to heel of peace is to be reached though, imho.
Ultimately what? I can't keep count ... how many times has Trump claimed Russia will imediately start negotiating with Ukraine on a ceasfire? LMAO.



Ukraine can negotiate or get smaller while their men get put into a blender. Daily it becomes less important to me which one they choose.
pagerman @ work
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

benchmark said:

nortex97 said:

Good to see, ultimately. Europe/nato must be brought to heel of peace is to be reached though, imho.
Ultimately what? I can't keep count ... how many times has Trump claimed Russia will imediately start negotiating with Ukraine on a ceasfire? LMAO.



Ukraine can negotiate or get smaller while their men get put into a blender. Daily it becomes less important to me which one they choose.

Like it was ever important to you.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
PlaneCrashGuy
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As I admitted yesterday, I expected peace by now. Now I realize it can't be doe, so let Ukraine fend for itself. I wish them luck. Luck wont save them.
 
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