Regardless, apartments were still hit and you didn't answer the question, and worse yet, you tried a whataboutism, so you know the answer and chose not to answer it publicly. Better than a wall of tweets from people nobody here has ever heard of so thanks for that at least.

nortex97 said:

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Sitrep: Putin seeks broad security agreement, rattles about Oreshnik strike on Berlin.

Quote:

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If there's any truth to the 'scoop', what's interesting about the contents is that it does appear to outline a broader security architecture on the macro scale, rather than merely hairsplitting over the 'micro'-level details of post-war troop compositions and such.
The 'three Russian sources' with an alleged ear in the Kremlin told Reuters that Putin's plan includes the demand for Western powers to pledge not only that Ukraine will not join NATO, but that NATO will not expand any further eastward, which primarily only affects Georgia and Moldova at this point, since nearly everyone else has already joined:

Quote:

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The three Russian sources said Putin wants a "written" pledge by major Western powers not to enlarge the U.S.-led NATO alliance eastwards - shorthand for formally ruling out membership to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova and other former Soviet republics.
Russia also wants Ukraine to be neutral, some Western sanctions lifted, a resolution of the issue of frozen Russian sovereign assets in the West, and protection for Russian speakers in Ukraine, the three sources said.

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This is particularly interesting because it coincides with NYT's latest which suggests Trump is pushing for a "19th century-style" world where US, China, and Russia divide the globe into spheres of influence.

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Really, that wouldn't be a 'bad' outcome, imho. It would be nice if Putin and Trump were negotiating for a US withdrawal from Nato as well though. I put this piece about a possible Ukrainian collapse on the newer thread but here it is as well. More at the links.

❕ Ukrainian monitoring resources, based on Western intelligence, have calculated that the Russian army has transferred 40 TU-22M strategic bombers to the Olenya airbase and, allegedly, 20% of the available Tu-95 MS

It is reported that an Il-76 transport aircraft has arrived at… pic.twitter.com/GwWpMHbXfC

— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) May 29, 2025

Could be an unfortunate way to begin the peace negotiations, or alternatively a crushing response to Kiev refusing the Russian terms yet again.

Ukraine's air defense is operating at the limit of its capabilities

If a year ago a raid of 30 Russian drones was considered a serious attack, now up to 300 drones are launched daily at military facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, The Economist reports.

In addition,…

— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) May 30, 2025

Russia is sending the same delegation to Istanbul that went to Ankara last time.

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Good timing to send their bombers there

Today, Ukrainian forces conducted a simultaneous strike on Russia's Belaya, Dyagilevo, Olenya, and Ivanovo airbases using FPV drone swarms.

The strikes destroyed a number of high-value Russian aircraft (Ukrainian SBU sources tell the FT nearly 40), including heavy bombers. pic.twitter.com/3fMoc1fPSV

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 1, 2025

Achtually, it's like 4 or 5

I'm over here still mind blown at the ridiculousness of trying to claim the Ukrainians are training Mexican cartels. There's throwing **** against the wall and then there's that. Fascinating.

This has been underplayed but must have been a lot of casualties unfortunately.

Mykhailo Drapatyi, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has submitted his resignation.

"I have decided to submit my resignation from the position of Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

This is a conscious step dictated by my… pic.twitter.com/Qs81y0yqSW

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 1, 2025

Not 40 aircraft, lol "ghost of Kiev" absurdity.

RU MOD statement:

"Today, the Kiev regime carried out a terrorist attack using FPV drones against airfields in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions.

At military airfields in the Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions, all terrorist attacks were repelled.

In the…

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) June 1, 2025

Fwiw, the Russians built over 500 of these. Not real sure this really matters. Around 4 updated ones are delivered by beriev per year.

See heres your problem-

I'd agree that reports of 40 or 50 or around that are likely inflated propaganda. Every country does it on this topic of success.

On the flip side, simply posting Russia accounts saying 4 or 5 were destroyed is just doing the opposite of Ukrainian sources. It's also likely to be propaganda trying g to mitigate a serious situation.

So, the number is probably somewhere between 5 and 40. Let's go with around 25 and call it a reasonable estimate, taking into account both sides willingness to propagandize results.

Losing 25 bombers is a pretty significant thing.

That wall of tweets didn't answer the question I asked you.

What I saw was something like "take the MOD number and multiply by 3, divide the ufa number by 10, average that."

But does anyone think kh101 launches will consequently drop now, seriously?

pic.twitter.com/ENdK4Ll8zL

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) June 1, 2025

Quote:

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Fwiw, the Russians built over 500 of these. Not real sure this really matters. Around 4 updated ones are delivered by beriev per year.

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Whoa 500 sounds pretty impressive. What matters is they had something like 50-60 operational leading up to their invasion. Lost another AWACS it looks like too but we already know how you feel about those.

The rules are pretty clear at this point. Russia attacks Ukraine (usually killing civilians in the process) and it was a huge deal/sign that Ukraine is about to fold and any civilian deaths were purely accidental. Ukraine defends itself and it's either a terrorist attack, or not important, or some combination of both.

And obviously any Russian attacks on Ukraine are justified because Biden, NATO, etc but any Ukraine attacks in response show they don't actually want peace.

GAC06 said:

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Quote:

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Fwiw, the Russians built over 500 of these. Not real sure this really matters. Around 4 updated ones are delivered by beriev per year.

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Whoa 500 sounds pretty impressive. What matters is they had something like 50-60 operational leading up to their invasion. Lost another AWACS it looks like too but we already know how you feel about those.

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Every plane is always A1 and nothing ever redballs,goes into depot or mx cancels in mother Russia

If anything it's another brazen provocation to prolong the war. Could even prolong the war "weeks, maybe".

Im not concerned about future launches. We're still working on how many bombers were actually destroyed.

I'd accept it wasn't 40 or 45 like ukrianian sources are claiming. I'd also wouldn't accept 4 or 5 like your claiming

Sorry, I don't actually operate my own satellite surveillance fleet. Appreciate your interest though in my guesses/opinion/swag.

Quote:

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RU MOD statement:

"Today, the Kiev regime carried out a terrorist attack using FPV drones against airfields in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions.

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Imagine believing a source that claims strikes against military targets during a time of war by a country being invaded is a "terrorist attack".

lol you really think Russia can't replace these. This is like when the war started, and Russia's economy was supposed to be crushed in year 1 yet their economy is just fine.

No, they can't. They stopped making Tu-95's and Tu-22's thirty years ago. In theory they're still producing the Tu-160 at a trickle rate.

They supposedly had about 50 each of the -22 and -195 before today, about about 20 -160's.

Teslag said:

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I'm over here still mind blown at the ridiculousness of trying to claim the Ukrainians are training Mexican cartels. There's throwing **** against the wall and then there's that. Fascinating.

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this sounds like something an underfunded russian bot farm would try to fabricate to gain sympathy from dumb americans.

soon we'll find out from random twitter accounts that the ukrainian military is smuggling ms-13 gang members into the US from mexico

Cougar11 said:

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lol you really think Russia can't replace these. This is like when the war started, and Russia's economy was supposed to be crushed in year 1 yet their economy is just fine.

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I remember that time. It was when Russia claimed Kiev would fall in "days".

Old McDonald said:

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Teslag said:

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I'm over here still mind blown at the ridiculousness of trying to claim the Ukrainians are training Mexican cartels. There's throwing **** against the wall and then there's that. Fascinating.

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this sounds like something an underfunded russian bot farm would try to fabricate to gain sympathy from dumb americans.

soon we'll find out from random twitter accounts that the ukrainian military is smuggling ms-13 gang members into the US from mexico

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Well if you remember they also tried the angle that weapons we sent Ukraine were also being smuggled to Hamas to use against Israel. Forget it that Russia directly trades arms with Iran who literally supplies hamas. It was pure silliness and didn't stop people from believing it.

nortex97 said:

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Also wide boasts about our Ukrainian "allies" not telling the White House about this long planned strike. Again, the partnership at a strategic level is over.

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can you blame them?

I'm impressed you actually read any of those tweets!

And I think that's the whole point of Trump trying to warm up Russia. He wants to decouple them from Iran and work with them on a deal in the middle east. Ukraine war is just stuck in the middle of that. In my opinion the Trump strategy on Ukraine is really about Iran.

AtticusMatlock said:

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And I think that's the whole point of Trump trying to warm up Russia. He wants to decouple them from Iran and work with them on a deal in the middle east. Ukraine war is just stuck in the middle of that. In my opinion the Trump strategy on Ukraine is really about Iran.

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Or China. Or both.

I don't think it's a terrible thought. But, it might be too late to get Russia into such a relationship with us or the west. It was tried and between the neo cons and the putins who couldn't get over the cold war, the window was missed, imo.

But, if we could swing Russia to be an ally instead of a foe, it would be a big cog in a future conflict with Iran or china.

Who?mikejones! said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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And I think that's the whole point of Trump trying to warm up Russia. He wants to decouple them from Iran and work with them on a deal in the middle east. Ukraine war is just stuck in the middle of that. In my opinion the Trump strategy on Ukraine is really about Iran.

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Or China. Or both.

I don't think it's a terrible thought. But, it might be too late to get Russia into such a relationship with us or the west. It was tried and between the neo cons and the putins who couldn't get over the cold war, the window was missed, imo.

But, if we could swing Russia to be an ally instead of a foe, it would be a big cog in a future conflict with Iran or china.

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The issue with that is that for it to be a net positive for Russia, the US would have to cede a massive degree of unchecked global influence and control to Moscow. Russia's interests will only align with ours for as long as they're gaining outsized benefit from it to our detriment.

Russia won't alter their strategic goals. Particularly not while Putin or a Putinist is in power. Either we alter ours to allow for their continued ascendancy or they'll maintain course. And, knowing Russia, there's a fair chance they'd crawfish and shoot us in the ass if they identified a favorable opportunity in the future.

I'm not sure that strategy is worth the inherent sacrifices and risks.

Russia media admitting drones concealed in trucks were driven deep inside Russia and then launched at multiple airfields and 'several' aircraft were lost. Including strategic bomber airfields in Siberia…. Thousands of km from the Ukraine frontline…a new tactic and threat the Russians will now have to worry about.

Pumpkinhead said:

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Russia media admitting drones concealed in trucks were driven deep inside Russia and then launched at multiple airfields and 'several' aircraft were lost. Including strategic bomber airfields in Siberia…. Thousands of km from the Ukraine frontline…a new tactic and threat the everybody will now have to worry about.

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FIFY. This is an attack vector that's long been hypothesized now come to reality. We can no longer be surprised if the opening move in hostiles with China is thousands of drones pouring out of container ships in American ports… many of which are shared with U.S. Navy and other defense entities.

Rossticus said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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And I think that's the whole point of Trump trying to warm up Russia. He wants to decouple them from Iran and work with them on a deal in the middle east. Ukraine war is just stuck in the middle of that. In my opinion the Trump strategy on Ukraine is really about Iran.

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Or China. Or both.

I don't think it's a terrible thought. But, it might be too late to get Russia into such a relationship with us or the west. It was tried and between the neo cons and the putins who couldn't get over the cold war, the window was missed, imo.

But, if we could swing Russia to be an ally instead of a foe, it would be a big cog in a future conflict with Iran or china.

---

The issue with that is that for it to be a net positive for Russia, the US would have to cede a massive degree of unchecked global influence and control to Moscow. Russia's interests will only align with ours for as long as they're gaining outsized benefit from it to our detriment.

Russia won't alter their strategic goals. Particularly not while Putin or a Putinist is in power. Either we alter ours to allow for their continued ascendancy or they'll maintain course. And, knowing Russia, there's a fair chance they'd crawfish and shoot us in the ass if they identified a favorable opportunity in the future.

I'm not sure that strategy is worth the inherent sacrifices and risks.

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Yes, I thought about going back and adding Russia, with its current leadership, is likely to never be an ally with the usa. I don't think the putin and/or a putin crony and usa alliance could be salvaged at this point.

Old McDonald said:

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nortex97 said:

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Also wide boasts about our Ukrainian "allies" not telling the White House about this long planned strike. Again, the partnership at a strategic level is over.

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can you blame them?

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I think it is excellent news if true, that the relationship with the executive branch of our gov't is no longer a partner with the Ukrainians. It's a strong break, though, as they've continued to gripe that the White House isn't supportive enough of their plans/funding etc.

As well as the front line developments, this was one of the things I saw as very good news this weekend, personally.

ETA: probably true:

Still a big loss even if one Tu-95 is 'destroyed' for good, but not catastrophic like they claim.
Either way, the implications of the attack are certainly worse than the attack itself https://t.co/dLT0kO85Dz

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) June 1, 2025

It's not true.

Ok it might be a little bit true.

It's true but it's actually good news!

Cougar11 said:

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lol you really think Russia can't replace these. This is like when the war started, and Russia's economy was supposed to be crushed in year 1 yet their economy is just fine.

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LOL. You really think Russia can easily replace strategic bombers? Reminds me of another resident goofball that claimed Russia could easily replace their tank inventory.

TriAg2010 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Russia media admitting drones concealed in trucks were driven deep inside Russia and then launched at multiple airfields and 'several' aircraft were lost. Including strategic bomber airfields in Siberia…. Thousands of km from the Ukraine frontline…a new tactic and threat the everybody will now have to worry about.

---

FIFY. This is an attack vector that's long been hypothesized now come to reality. We can no longer be surprised if the opening move in hostiles with China is thousands of drones pouring out of container ships in American ports… many of which are shared with U.S. Navy and other defense entities.

---

This was a threat before it was executed. It's a threat now. We live in a new era where conflict is growing globally and there isn't anything we can do to put a lid on it - except have a strong cohesive strategic vision and strategy with our allies as a deterrent…. Basically the biggest failure of this administration unfortunately.

The truth is at least Pandora's box has been opened against an adversary so that we could better understand this reality before it was ever used on us. We aren't waking up today with drone attacks at Miramar, Kadena or Diego Garcia. So now we can mitigate some of those threats.

benchmark said:

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Cougar11 said:

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lol you really think Russia can't replace these. This is like when the war started, and Russia's economy was supposed to be crushed in year 1 yet their economy is just fine.

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LOL. You really think Russia can easily replace strategic bombers? Reminds me of another resident goofball that claimed Russia could easily replace their tank inventory.

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Likewise, do you have any basis to think Russia is…short on tanks, or production this year? Or KH-21 launch platforms/missiles?

GAC06 said:

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It's not true.

Ok it might be a little bit true.

It's true but it's actually good news!

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Had to wait for confirmation from the Russians and Russophiles before it could be considered trustworthy. Otherwise it's just propaganda from "the Kiev regime". You know this.

Yes. Russia is having issues replacing tanks and armor.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-sustaining-loss-forces-better-than-ukraine-says-iiss-research-centre-2025-02-12/

Quote:

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Moscow lost 1,400 tanks in 2024 and is struggling to make new tanks at a fast enough rate to replace the old ones despite increasing production of advanced models like the T-90M tank.
"Russia is increasingly trading quality for quantity to support its war effort," the report said.
"The scale of its equipment losses fighting against
Ukraine has meant that, to keep units equipped, it has had
to draw down from its stocks of Soviet-era armour."
That has seen Moscow fall back on small numbers of vintage armoured personnel carriers built in the 1950s and tanks built in the 1960s, said the IISS, which estimates Russia has lost a total of 4,400 main battle tanks in the war so far

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/14/is-russia-running-out-of-weapons-and-manpower-for-its-war-in-ukraine

Quote:

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Military analysts have told Al Jazeera that the Ukrainian army has already destroyed a lion's share of Russia's tanks and armoured vehicles.

The shortage is increasingly hard to replenish, even as Moscow digs into mammoth Soviet-era stocks to refurbish decommissioned and dysfunctional vehicles.

"Armoured vehicles are being put out of use with a horrifying speed," Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany's Bremen University, told Al Jazeera.

"The production of new ones and the restoration of damaged or mothballed ones is far behind the losses," and Russia's park of armoured vehicles for the offence will last "mere months," he said.

Meanwhile, there are "colossal" problems with delivering supplies to the front line as ubiquitous Ukrainian drones destroy armoured cargo vehicles and civilian cars, he said.

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Al Jazeera is not known as a western propaganda arm



So yeah, the ability for Russia to replace its tank and armoured carrier forces seems debatable.